Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

Dubai, whilst you're on the thread, I quite like your pick Loner in its semi tonight - any thoughts?

Thought the dog that beat it last week Garryglass Rodge was the bet of the night @9/4, great draw, dont like them in red but isnt reliant on smash breaking anyway as shows great pace to the bend and rails like a cat. Glanmire will move off from 2 allowing red all room in world. Think will return 6/4

Would have to take Barracuda on in the second semi, if it breaks will win but at 4/11 at Romford just couldnt get involved, think Millwards Matt is overpriced at 8/1 drawn in 6, thought ran really well last week and if trouble on the inside and goes round then surely gg, nearly qualifies as an each way dog bet but not quite

Really tough third semi, Loner ran much better in red 2 weeks ago than when drawn in 2 which is normally a better trapping box. Was bit disappointed at its run last week as the Rodge dog really outpaced it to the bend after trapping behind it, obviously capable of running better as shown the week prior. Santiago didnt show as much early as I thought it would last week but has a smashers chance from 3 and Ayamzaman would be opposable from me in 6, its won from 6 before but last time it had 6 missed the break and cant afford anything but a ping tonight. Think its the hardest of the 3 semis betting wise as 4/5 both smashed and won well last week too. Loner would need to come away very well, obviously massive chance as drawn if it does

[Tal]

Tssk.  He pleads to see an algorithm from one of my sub-routines and promises not to share...

Oh sugar!

Forgot to carry the one!

[scotty2hatty]

Dubai, whilst you're on the thread, I quite like your pick Loner in its semi tonight - any thoughts?

Thought the dog that beat it last week Garryglass Rodge was the bet of the night @9/4, great draw, dont like them in red but isnt reliant on smash breaking anyway as shows great pace to the bend and rails like a cat. Glanmire will move off from 2 allowing red all room in world. Think will return 6/4

Would have to take Barracuda on in the second semi, if it breaks will win but at 4/11 at Romford just couldnt get involved, think Millwards Matt is overpriced at 8/1 drawn in 6, thought ran really well last week and if trouble on the inside and goes round then surely gg, nearly qualifies as an each way dog bet but not quite

Really tough third semi, Loner ran much better in red 2 weeks ago than when drawn in 2 which is normally a better trapping box. Was bit disappointed at its run last week as the Rodge dog really outpaced it to the bend after trapping behind it, obviously capable of running better as shown the week prior. Santiago didnt show as much early as I thought it would last week but has a smashers chance from 3 and Ayamzaman would be opposable from me in 6, its won from 6 before but last time it had 6 missed the break and cant afford anything but a ping tonight. Think its the hardest of the 3 semis betting wise as 4/5 both smashed and won well last week too. Loner would need to come away very well, obviously massive chance as drawn if it does

Took on Barracuda with Millwards Matt last night, got 10/1, thought it might go off at 6/1ish. Glad you're thinking similar.

Rodge is already 7/4 best but I'm hopeful that Glanmire has too much for it.

Agree 3rd semi is tough but I like Loner to improve on last week's run and lead them all the way. Bad draw for Ayamzaman in my eyes.

[TightEnd]

Someone call the icc corruption unit. Boy oh boy

[FUN4FRASER]

Someone call the icc corruption unit. Boy oh boy

Call The Cops

Its Bad...slow run rate..and spewing edges to catch

[rinswun]

Even the commentators asking (verbatim) 'just one question, why don't the Sunrisers want to win this?'. Very suspect.

[tikay]

I awake from a brief nap to hear the commentator say

"why don't Sunrisers want to win it?"

Guess there could be quite a range of replies.

[tikay]

Seems he sad it twice, too.....

[redarmi]

Interestingly the two topics of the day tie in quite well together.  Isn't this lack of perfect information (in this case corruption but it could be injury news, weather uncertainty or really any one of a ton of things) the reason that you shouldn't bet the full Kelly amount?  Kelly assumes that you "know" the correct price but that isn't ever possible you can only ever estimate it.  I am a massive nit with these things and rarely bet over about a quarter of Kelly but I can see why you should bet more up to about half generally and for a fun thread like this I think that makes sense but I do think betting full Kelly is a big mistake although you still can pretty much never go broke.

[scotty2hatty]

Famous folk are always popping into my shop but today, tikay, I spotted this character, couldn't really tell any of the staff that there was a celebrity in. Preferred it when Rachel Stevens came in.

[exstream]

Whoop! Thank you for cricket bet. Apologies for too many questions haha

[Dubai]

Anyone else have 100x as much confidence in Dale Steyn coming in compared to random indian?

[Dubai]

Interestingly the two topics of the day tie in quite well together.  Isn't this lack of perfect information (in this case corruption but it could be injury news, weather uncertainty or really any one of a ton of things) the reason that you shouldn't bet the full Kelly amount?  Kelly assumes that you "know" the correct price but that isn't ever possible you can only ever estimate it.  I am a massive nit with these things and rarely bet over about a quarter of Kelly but I can see why you should bet more up to about half generally and for a fun thread like this I think that makes sense but I do think betting full Kelly is a big mistake although you still can pretty much never go broke.

Yeah for sure which is why if we allow for a massive overestimation in our edge in situations like this its the equivalent of reducing Kelly bet into 1/8th size etc anyway

[BigAdz]

Turning into a maths forum.

Worse than algebra lessons.........

[tikay]

Apparently, the ICC have made an arrrest and seized some evidence.

They were seen removing the evidence, which appeared to consist of cupcakes, and a chap named hector is now in custody.