Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

[Eso Kral]

really its all academic isn't it, as very little chance of tikay betting even strong fancies in half-Kelly amounts without much prompting hacking his account and placing the bet for him?

Maybe Vince could run a spreadsheet for a dummy Kelly account to see how they would perform against each other  

For a moment, I thought you had typed "Dummy Kendall".

PS - Scunthorpe play Walsall tomorrow. Do we want them to win, or lose? All so confusing. 

Haha very good, we need Walsall to win ALL remaining games to be in with a shout of the playoffs and would still need results to go our way.

In Essex terminology we have 3 hopes...

[Eso Kral]

I go D ainec.

Problem with D, it assumes all our bets are losers and if we have the same opportunity we would then be betting less and less on each one whilst the others arent settled which would therefore mean our bets although all the same ev, would have differing impacts on our roll and the earlier the bet was placed the more important it would turn out to be. Which basically just adds unnecessary variance and definitely slowths our overall growth, only imo obviously, as its an answer I can understand a lot of people would pick and could make a reasonable argument for

Welcome to my life.

<3 Milli

[tikay]

really its all academic isn't it, as very little chance of tikay betting even strong fancies in half-Kelly amounts without much prompting hacking his account and placing the bet for him?

Maybe Vince could run a spreadsheet for a dummy Kelly account to see how they would perform against each other  

For a moment, I thought you had typed "Dummy Kendall".

PS - Scunthorpe play Walsall tomorrow. Do we want them to win, or lose? All so confusing. 

Haha very good, we need Walsall to win ALL remaining games to be in with a shout of the playoffs and would still need results to go our way.

In Essex terminology we have 3 hopes...

Sorry, I'm not with you. I thought you told us to bet on Walsall being RELEGATED? To be fair, that was before you told us to bet they would be PROMOTED.

Did you go to Punterer School with Chompy?

[MereNovice]

really its all academic isn't it, as very little chance of tikay betting even strong fancies in half-Kelly amounts without much prompting hacking his account and placing the bet for him?

Maybe Vince could run a spreadsheet for a dummy Kelly account to see how they would perform against each other  

I'd be happy to but I don't think that we would have all the necessary information to make Kelly calculations on all the bets tipped on this thread. Not everyone is able to price up the bets to provide precise odds for their recommendation; they just rely on an "instinctive" feel for a bookie's price being wrong.

[Dubai]

well that the key, as i said earlier everyone (myself definitely included) overestimates their edges on most markets. So we'd need a formula that took this into place and adjusted it accordingly

[tikay]

I'm not wholly up to speed on this Kelly Criterion yet, or even Hectors Cupcake Criterion, but......

We traditionally bet a max of x% of our roll on any given bet, & adjust down for specific circumstances from there. 

Surely we are not saying we should abandon that principle?

I actually get the logic that we should bet MORE OFTEN & BIGGER when the value is there, but as long as I have a day job, I don't have the time to devote to that. Spinning too many plates already here.

I would not even be scared of doing a lot more bets, assuming we were reasonably sure we were getting value every time.

I still need time to get my head round Miss Criterion though.

Think we need one of those Bellend Graphs.

[Dubai]

As Fred starts betting more and bigger it should expand its business. I think its time it started to accept CVs for a vacant Junior Trader position. Salary results dependant

[Eso Kral]

Hi Tikay

I am going to suggest a bet of £30 on WALSALL to be relegated from League 1 @ 7/1 with VC which hopefully will give a similar sweat to Camel's Barnet bet last year but with a better end result.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation

The reason I am recommending the bet is that after a better than anticipated start Walsall are now on a horrific run of 10 league games without a win since the end of September and are perennial relegation contenders and a club with no money who for the past 2 seasons have survived by the skin of their teeth, and at the start of the season they were priced in this market at 6/4 although due to the prospect of Portsmouth being liquidated only VC/Hills and BF had markets with now only BF and VC available.

It is safe to assume that Portsmouth will fill one of the 4 places as once they come out of Administration they will receive a further penalty of -10pts and seem to be a club in disarray furthered by Appletons departure to Blackpool, the other contenders IMHO are Hartlepool (who may appoint Phil Brown as manager this week), Bury, Scunthorpe (recently appointed Brian Laws and showing a bit of form), Coventry and Oldham and again IMO Walsall should definately not be a 7/1 to fill one of 3or4 places against these teams having over achieved in the first third of the season.

Walsall's next few games are
Crawley away
Tranmere away
Hartlepool home
Coventry away
Yeovil home
Colchester home
Mk Dons away
Leyton Orient away and personally I can see only a return of 6/7 points maximum from these fixtures which takes them to January's fixtures which look equally as tough and would expect the price to contract further during this time offering an end of season green out or let it ride option  if they are completely sucked into the battle of which they are currently only 3 points outside.

Flame away...

Well after 4/7 games in the initial post and recc Walsall have achieved 3 points which is about par for the course imo as I had them down for LLWL and instead have gone DDDL so the next few games are crucial but we also need teams like Shrewsbury,Bury, Scunthorpe to be picking up some points along the way as well as we are effectively playing for 2 places atm with Hartlepool and Portsmouth filling the other 2.
The next games are
Walsall v Yeovil
Walsall v Colchester
MK Dons v Walsall
Leyton Orient v Walsall
Jan
Walsall v Stevenage
Walsall v Portsmouth
Preston v Walsall
Walsall v Bournemouth
Colchester vWalsall
Ideally if we can get through the next 2 games without a win for Walsall we are still in the running....

Edit current odds 9/2

November 13th, I remember it well as I still had some money in the bank and we backed them to be relegated on the strength of the argument above and since that date in the league this is Walsall's form P 26, W 12, D 11, L 3 and since January they have only lost one game.
Imagine the fun we could be having if only you had misclicked "Promotion" instead of relegation 

[Tal]

Kelly issue can be solved by each tipster giving a probability assessment of their own confidence in their assessment of the correct price.

So, all we do is add a coefficient to the ultimate output of the Kelly calculation (call it F for Fred) and off we go.

Elders and betting experts will yend to have greater confidence and thus their bets will typically carry a coefficient closer to 1. Ice creams will be closer to 0.5 (we assume no one is proposing a bet where they have less than 50% confidence in it being a good price).

As Elders will often pick bets where the margin between correct price and advertised price is smaller, this will ensure through Kelly that the difference in bet sizing isn't all that pronounced.

Easy peasy

[Eso Kral]

As Fred starts betting more and bigger it should expand its business. I think its time it started to accept CVs for a vacant Junior Trader position. Salary results dependant

Haha you will never qualify for the junior trader position mate as you are at least 30 now  

[tikay]

Hi Tikay

I am going to suggest a bet of £30 on WALSALL to be relegated from League 1 @ 7/1 with VC which hopefully will give a similar sweat to Camel's Barnet bet last year but with a better end result.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation

The reason I am recommending the bet is that after a better than anticipated start Walsall are now on a horrific run of 10 league games without a win since the end of September and are perennial relegation contenders and a club with no money who for the past 2 seasons have survived by the skin of their teeth, and at the start of the season they were priced in this market at 6/4 although due to the prospect of Portsmouth being liquidated only VC/Hills and BF had markets with now only BF and VC available.

It is safe to assume that Portsmouth will fill one of the 4 places as once they come out of Administration they will receive a further penalty of -10pts and seem to be a club in disarray furthered by Appletons departure to Blackpool, the other contenders IMHO are Hartlepool (who may appoint Phil Brown as manager this week), Bury, Scunthorpe (recently appointed Brian Laws and showing a bit of form), Coventry and Oldham and again IMO Walsall should definately not be a 7/1 to fill one of 3or4 places against these teams having over achieved in the first third of the season.

Walsall's next few games are
Crawley away
Tranmere away
Hartlepool home
Coventry away
Yeovil home
Colchester home
Mk Dons away
Leyton Orient away and personally I can see only a return of 6/7 points maximum from these fixtures which takes them to January's fixtures which look equally as tough and would expect the price to contract further during this time offering an end of season green out or let it ride option  if they are completely sucked into the battle of which they are currently only 3 points outside.

Flame away...

Well after 4/7 games in the initial post and recc Walsall have achieved 3 points which is about par for the course imo as I had them down for LLWL and instead have gone DDDL so the next few games are crucial but we also need teams like Shrewsbury,Bury, Scunthorpe to be picking up some points along the way as well as we are effectively playing for 2 places atm with Hartlepool and Portsmouth filling the other 2.
The next games are
Walsall v Yeovil
Walsall v Colchester
MK Dons v Walsall
Leyton Orient v Walsall
Jan
Walsall v Stevenage
Walsall v Portsmouth
Preston v Walsall
Walsall v Bournemouth
Colchester vWalsall
Ideally if we can get through the next 2 games without a win for Walsall we are still in the running....

Edit current odds 9/2

November 13th, I remember it well as I still had some money in the bank and we backed them to be relegated on the strength of the argument above and since that date in the league this is Walsall's form P 26, W 12, D 11, L 3 and since January they have only lost one game.
Imagine the fun we could be having if only you had misclicked "Promotion" instead of relegation 

I probably did. Off to check.......

[Doobs]

As Fred starts betting more and bigger it should expand its business. I think its time it started to accept CVs for a vacant Junior Trader position. Salary results dependant

Must have clean bet365 and paddy power account?

[Dubai]

And Stan James/Skybet accounts setup in someone elses name

[exstream]

The odds have now reversed in IPL.