Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I don't know if Tikay is about but I have a few bets for this evening's UFC event.

Travis Browne to win in the first round (v. Gonzaga) @ 17/10 with Ladbrokes. Recommend £20.

Browne is 13-1 with 9 first round KOs. Most of the time these stats are skewed cos they are fighting bums early in their career but three of his 4 UFC wins have came in the first round. I don't trust Gonzaga's chin at all and he briefly retired after a bad KO, he has 6 career losses with 5 of those by TKO/KO. His two most recent stoppage losses both came in the first round. Browne is 1/3 to win, think the 17/10 that he ends it in the first is an excellent price.

Urijah Faber to win by KO/TKO (v. Jorgensen) @ 8/1 with Ladbrokes. Recommend £10.

The price is way out of line, both with what I'd expect the price to be and with the other bookmakers. SkyBet are 4/1 and PP 11/2. I think Faber wins this by decision and he is by no means a KO artist but in his recent fights he has looked very sharp on the feet, rocking Bowles on his way to a submission win. We also get the ground and pound stoppage added in which is a big player too. Faber is 12/5 in a couple of spots to win by decision but that price is probably closer to being right than this one.

EDIT: To add slightly larger recommend on first bet.

Thank you Scotty.

Both on, exactly as directed, with Ladbrokes, details in the morning.

ON

To Confirm, the THREE bets were......

£10 @ 8/1, Ladbrokes, Faber over Jorgensen, TK or TKO.

£10 @ 17/10, Ladbrokes, Browne over Gonzaga, Round One

We then did the latter bet again, see Scotty's Edited Post.....

£10 @ 17/10, Ladbrokes, Browne over Gonzaga, Round One

ON


1
 
   UFC 
Gabriel Gonzaga v Travis Browne
Round betting 
2013-04-14 02:40:00
Travis Browne - Round 1 @ 17/10
  Win   
 
 
 
  Channel   WAP 
 
  Bet Placed At   13/04/2013 
 
  Bet Type   Single 
 
  Stake Per Line   £10.00
 
_______________

1
 
   UFC 
Scott Jorgensen v Urijah Faber
Method of Victory 
2013-04-14 04:20:00
Urijah Faber - KO or TKO @ 8/1
  Lose   
 
 
 
  Channel   WAP 
 
  Bet Placed At   13/04/2013 
 
  Bet Type   Single 
 
  Stake Per Line   £10.00
 
__________________

UFC 
Gabriel Gonzaga v Travis Browne
Round betting 
2013-04-14 02:40:00
Travis Browne - Round 1 @ 17/10
  Win   
 
 
 
  Channel   WAP 
 
  Bet Placed At   13/04/2013 
 
  Bet Type   Single 
 
  Stake Per Line   £10.00
 

[Doobs]

I assume newcastles price this weekend will be wrong, let me tell ou why.

The bookies will overprice Sunderland because they havnt lost often this season and underprice Newcastle because of a slowish start.

Our whole core f our team comes from Krul/colocini, both are back fit.

The main thing is that Sunderland baby lost much but they've been fixkong awful long forward. As its a derby there fans will push for them to attack, they won't be comfortable and if we can hold them out Ben arfa and ba can really punish them on the break.

Im pretty sure this is one of the little things that bookmakers won't take into account but last year we murdered west brom in very similar circumstances all of our goals coming from against the run of play.

Newcastle just above 2/1 on Betfair, which suggests they have them close to even in ability.   Bookies adjust to current form slowly, so they aren't assuming Sunderland are the better team yet.

Quite an interesting game this, I think, & current form often goes out of the window in this one.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-newcastle/winner

As the nipper is kipping, I have run some stats on the tikay hypothesis.

Since the advent of 3 points for a win, the two teams have met 22 times in the league.

There have been 6 home wins, 9 draws and 7 away wins.  This suggests that draws and away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland have only won 3 of those encounters.

When I took it back to the first world war, I got 84 results.  There were 36 home wins, 28 draws and 20 aways. Looking at these stats, I'd be less confident that the away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland won 22 of these games.  Pre the first world war Sunderland were the best side.

I wouldn't be rushing to back Sunderland.  I am not so confident in the away win stat.  

Draws just feel more likely in local derbies, and the teams feel closely matched right now.  The stats seem to back up my initial thoughts on local derbies, but I haven't got the time to run them all.

Anyway, Pinnacle are offering 12/5 the draw, and I am estimating the odds should be something like 2/1 or lower.

Of course these markets should be close to perfect and the big syndicates should have better models than the botched stats I have done above.  Regardless of this, I have spent some time on this, so feel the need to bet.  I have backed the draw at 2.4 on betfair as I am a creature of habit and can't be bothered opening a pinnacle account.  23/10 is available in a few spots for those that haven't got pinnacle or get stung for 5%/premium charge on betfair.

I have assumed that there is no real difference between Sunderland playing at Roker Park or the Stadium of Light and no difference between Newcastle playing at St James' Park and the Sports Direct Arena.  
 
FWIW If I run beyond the first world war, the stats aren't so compelling, but I just imagine the games were more one sided back then, maybe tikay can provide some reminiscences about this period to help us out?

Draw 2.6 on Betfair, 5/2 in places

Think you have to assume Di Canio have improved Sunderland a bit and 20/21 home win already assumes Newcastle are better.

Edit.  Last result was a draw too.

[tikay]

For MERE - Missing Masters Bets

There were three last minute bets placed on The Masters on Thursday morning, which I never confirmed.

There were all down to DOOBS. We got severely restricted on all three, as noted at the time.

Jim Furyk, £1.50 EW @ 70/1, Paddy Power, qtr odds 1,2,3,4,5,6.

Steve Stricker, £1.50 EW @ 70/1, Paddy Power, qtr odds 1,2,3,4,5,6

Adam Scott, £1 EW @ 22/1, Paddy Power, qtr odds 1,2,3,4,5,6

ON


Bet receipt number : O/23146337/0000288
Selection   Selection Details   Result
1   Golf
US Masters
Jim Furyk EW
11th of April, 2013 11:30 am
Outright
70/1

   Pending
       
Stake and Return Details
Bet placed at   11th of Apr 2013 11:30 am   Total Stake   £3.00

Bet receipt number : O/23146337/0000289
Selection   Selection Details   Result
1   
Golf
US Masters
Steve Stricker EW
11th of April, 2013 11:31 am
Outright
70/1

 
 
 
 
 

   Pending
       
Stake and Return Details
Bet placed at   11th of Apr 2013 11:31 am   Total Stake    £3.00


Bet receipt number : O/23146337/0000290
Selection   Selection Details   Result
1   Golf
US Masters
Adam Scott EW
11th of April, 2013 11:32 am
Outright
22/1

 
 
 
 
 

   Pending
       
Stake and Return Details
Bet placed at   11th of Apr 2013 11:32 am   Total Stake £2   £2.00

[tikay]

Going to just put this out there.  Lewis Hamilton is 4th favourite for the Formula 1 World Championship.  He is very much one of the most talented drivers.  To my eyes he is better than Raikkonen, and at least the equal of Alonso.  I wouldn't like to guess who would be better of Vettel and him in the same car.

In addition it seems clear to me that his car is getting better.  He is currently 4th in the standings.  He is a bit of Alonso and a bit behind Raikkonen.  A grouchy Mark Webber is 1 point ahead.

I am fairly surprised just how short Alonso is and we already have Vettel.

Think we can risk a stray tenner on Hamilton for the F1 championship, at a general 8/1.  I have had a look at the e/w terms and they look poor, so on the nose it is.

I am sure Neil will tell me he can't be value if they are 8/1 everywhere and I have no defender to that!

Stray tenner duly flung @ 8/1 with Betfred.

Details later.

ON

CONFIRMATION.

This was placed yesterday, we have.....

£10 WIN @ 8/1, Betfred, Hamilton, F1 World Championship.

ON

4/13/2013 4:39:11 PM  121/
126  W:8.00  Single  World Drivers Championship 2013/Outright Winner  Hamilton, Lewis   8/1  Open  O  £8.00  £0.00 

[tikay]

I don't know if Tikay is about but I have a few bets for this evening's UFC event.

Travis Browne to win in the first round (v. Gonzaga) @ 17/10 with Ladbrokes. Recommend £20.

Browne is 13-1 with 9 first round KOs. Most of the time these stats are skewed cos they are fighting bums early in their career but three of his 4 UFC wins have came in the first round. I don't trust Gonzaga's chin at all and he briefly retired after a bad KO, he has 6 career losses with 5 of those by TKO/KO. His two most recent stoppage losses both came in the first round. Browne is 1/3 to win, think the 17/10 that he ends it in the first is an excellent price.

Urijah Faber to win by KO/TKO (v. Jorgensen) @ 8/1 with Ladbrokes. Recommend £10.

The price is way out of line, both with what I'd expect the price to be and with the other bookmakers. SkyBet are 4/1 and PP 11/2. I think Faber wins this by decision and he is by no means a KO artist but in his recent fights he has looked very sharp on the feet, rocking Bowles on his way to a submission win. We also get the ground and pound stoppage added in which is a big player too. Faber is 12/5 in a couple of spots to win by decision but that price is probably closer to being right than this one.

EDIT: To add slightly larger recommend on first bet.

Query for Scotty or others.

Ladbrokes settled the two Browne bets as winners, correctly.

They settled the Faber bet as a LOSER. Is this correct. Faber WON, but presumably, he won the wrong way?

For now, it is settled in the Spready as a LOSER. 

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0930, Sunday April 14th

LOSS on Month = £989.36

Outstanding bets £2,025.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 1005, Sunday April 14th


We lost (the traditional opening words of late....) £79 yesterday.

Yesterday's Month Loss figure in the Report was incorrectly stated as £855.36, it should have been £910.36, & so we added £79 to that loss.

A Wm Hilll Priority Offer was a bit bad, Jack Dexter was never in with a chance. -£100.

We also took a £3 loss on the World Snooker, McGill @ 500/1, but we did a portfolio of stuff & are still fine.

We did two UFC bets late last night, one was reported as a loss, -£10.

Our sole winner arose from a beautifully presented suggestion by Scotty, who gave us a nice UFC winner @ 17/10. He first suggested £10, then decided to make it £20, & was proven right,. The tide may be turning.....  Well done SCotty.

[mondatoo]

I assume newcastles price this weekend will be wrong, let me tell ou why.

The bookies will overprice Sunderland because they havnt lost often this season and underprice Newcastle because of a slowish start.

Our whole core f our team comes from Krul/colocini, both are back fit.

The main thing is that Sunderland baby lost much but they've been fixkong awful long forward. As its a derby there fans will push for them to attack, they won't be comfortable and if we can hold them out Ben arfa and ba can really punish them on the break.

Im pretty sure this is one of the little things that bookmakers won't take into account but last year we murdered west brom in very similar circumstances all of our goals coming from against the run of play.

Newcastle just above 2/1 on Betfair, which suggests they have them close to even in ability.   Bookies adjust to current form slowly, so they aren't assuming Sunderland are the better team yet.

Quite an interesting game this, I think, & current form often goes out of the window in this one.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-newcastle/winner

As the nipper is kipping, I have run some stats on the tikay hypothesis.

Since the advent of 3 points for a win, the two teams have met 22 times in the league.

There have been 6 home wins, 9 draws and 7 away wins.  This suggests that draws and away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland have only won 3 of those encounters.

When I took it back to the first world war, I got 84 results.  There were 36 home wins, 28 draws and 20 aways. Looking at these stats, I'd be less confident that the away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland won 22 of these games.  Pre the first world war Sunderland were the best side.

I wouldn't be rushing to back Sunderland.  I am not so confident in the away win stat.  

Draws just feel more likely in local derbies, and the teams feel closely matched right now.  The stats seem to back up my initial thoughts on local derbies, but I haven't got the time to run them all.

Anyway, Pinnacle are offering 12/5 the draw, and I am estimating the odds should be something like 2/1 or lower.

Of course these markets should be close to perfect and the big syndicates should have better models than the botched stats I have done above.  Regardless of this, I have spent some time on this, so feel the need to bet.  I have backed the draw at 2.4 on betfair as I am a creature of habit and can't be bothered opening a pinnacle account.  23/10 is available in a few spots for those that haven't got pinnacle or get stung for 5%/premium charge on betfair.

I have assumed that there is no real difference between Sunderland playing at Roker Park or the Stadium of Light and no difference between Newcastle playing at St James' Park and the Sports Direct Arena.  
 
FWIW If I run beyond the first world war, the stats aren't so compelling, but I just imagine the games were more one sided back then, maybe tikay can provide some reminiscences about this period to help us out?

Draw 2.6 on Betfair, 5/2 in places

Think you have to assume Di Canio have improved Sunderland a bit and 20/21 home win already assumes Newcastle are better.

Edit.  Last result was a draw too.

Would you expect the bookies to take into consideration the fact that this Sunderland side has completely bottled the derby numerous times in the past few years ? I think it's definitely relevant.

Do you remember the draw ? I'd be surprised if even a die hard mackem tried to suggest we didn't deserve to win, playing with 10 men for most of the game yet still the better side and they had to rely on a late Ba own goal to get away with it.

[tikay]

We have the Masters Favourite!

Amazingly, after three really swingy & swongy days, we go into the Final Round with £25 @ 25/1 on Brandt Snedeker, a bet we placed months ago, down to redarmi.

He is now generally 5/2, & Betfair have him @ 3.7 to back, & 3.75 to lay.

Good luck Sneddy, Fred needs you.

[scotty2hatty]

Morning tikay. Yes, the Faber bet was a loser, I just read the fight wrong and it turns out 8/1 was probably a fair price. He won by submission.

Glad I could get us a little winner.

Go Sneds I guess.

[tikay]

US Masters book.....

There is still a lot of play left in this, & we might just have a really fun Sunday evening. We havee around £523 at risk, & might not get a bean, but we can still make a profit if Sneddy gets home.

All to play for.


Outright

Snedeker, £25 WIN @ 25/1 (7 under)

Tiger Woods, £30 EW @ 6/1 (3 under)

Rory McIllroy, £25 EW @ 12/1 (5 over)

Phil Mickelson, £25 EW @ 16/1 (8 over)

Justin Rose, £50 EW @ 22/1 (Level par)

Furyk, £1.50 EW @ 70/1 (2 under)

Stricker, £1.50 EW @ 70/1 (2 under)

Adam Scott, £1 EW @ 22/1 (6 under)

First Round Leader

Lee Westwood, £15 EW @ 33/1 - LOST

Justin Rose, £15 EW @ 18/1 - LOST

Charl Schwartzel, £15 EW @ 28/1 - LOST

Top Amateur

Weaver, £60 @ 4.6 LOST

Top Debutant

Coetzee £15 EW @ 7/1 LOST

Henley £15 EW @ 7/1 LOST

Lynn £10 EW @ 12/1. Intensive care.

[tikay]

Morning tikay. Yes, the Faber bet was a loser, I just read the fight wrong and it turns out 8/1 was probably a fair price. He won by submission.

Glad I could get us a little winner.

Go Sneds I guess.

You turned us a nice profit, we invested £30, & got £54 back.

Very pleased with that.

[tikay]

We are spoilt for choice in Televised football today.

Newcastle v Sunderland, Noon

Stoke v Man U, 2.05pm

Chelsea v Man C (FA Cup Semi ) 4pm.

[Dubai]

And I'm off to the zoo!! Was secretly sweating rain

[tikay]

Obv best bet is Chelsea to score first. Win bet 45% time and of the 55% of the time we lose we get our money back around 65% time.

So we lose less than 20% time and more than double our money 45% time

Bumped for reminder.

This relates to today's offer from Ladbrokes.....

 
Money Back If Man City win in 90 minutes, money back* on all losing bets in EVERY market!


The T & C's are.....

1. Money back on losing bets on every market up to £25, in the form of a free bet token if Manchester City beat Chelsea in 90 minutes in the FA Cup Semi Final: Chelsea v Manchester City on 14th April 2013.
2. Offer is available to new and existing online, phone, mobile and shop customers.
3. Offer applies to single bets only. Refund will not apply to any multiple bets.
4. Offer applies to losing bets on every market of the FA Cup Semi Final: Chelsea v Manchester City on 14th April 2013. Offer applies to bets placed in 90 minutes, this includes injury time but not extra time or penalties.
5. Qualifying bet must be placed before kick-off. Bets placed in-play do not count.
6. You must be aged 18 years or over to bet and participate in this promotion.
7. Maximum refund £/€25 per market, per customer.
8. Free bet token will be valid for 7 days.
9. Stakes will not be returned on winning bets placed with Free Bet tokens.
10. Only the win portion of each-way bets will be refunded.
11. One refund per market, per customer. Offer applies to first bet placed in the respective market.
12. Void bets do not count.
13. Bets placed with free bets do not count.
14. Refund will be credited within 24 hours.
15. Ladbrokes reserves the right to restrict bonuses to individual customers at its discretion.
16. Any bets placed from Ukash, MoneyBookers and Neteller deposits will not qualify for this offer.
17. Free Bet cannot be redeemed on any other online product (Casino, Poker, Bingo, Games, Financial, Lottos, virtuals).
18. Ladbrokes accepts no responsibility for system or connection problems that might affect any end user during the promotion.
19. Offer is only open to customers living in the UK and Ireland, and betting on the respective language sites.
20. Ladbrokes may determine at its sole discretion whether it believes different entries or accounts are connected to the same person, using whatever methods it deems appropriate.
21. In the event of a breach of these terms and conditions Ladbrokes reserve the right to take such action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion.
22. The promoter is Ladbrokes Betting & Gaming, Imperial House, Imperial Drive, Rayners Lane, Middlesex, HA2 7JW and Ladbrokes Sportsbook LP, a limited partnership registered in Gibraltar, number 44, whose registered office is 57/63 Line Wall Road, Gibraltar.