Tips for Tikay

[Tonji]

I forgot to mention, our new Cycling fan is "cheapwetsuit". Seems a smashing lad.

Good man "cws" I need some help. the Giro d´Italia is less than a month away & I think fred should have a small interest, but I'm struggling to find any value in the markets.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-d-italia/winner

So many questions marks with regard to form. Wiggins seems to be off the pace earlier in the year, but Sky have nearly always got their riders in top shape for GTs. Tempted by Nibali after his win at Tirreno-Adriatico, but at 3/1 ?

Maybe Michele Scarponi has some EW value at 25/1, a previous winner in 2011 (by default), but has had a sparse early season with only a decent 3rd in Catalunya.

Hoping the next few weeks it'll become clearer.

[Doobs]

Hamilton: 'Quali performance, we're there. But not in the race.'

Alonso 'Lacking quali performance but race pace is good.Races today not a maximum push; 80 per cent push."

in the post race conferences

Its rare I disagree with Doobs, and I missed commenting yesterday, but I can't have Hamilton 8-1 as value

Three teams quicker than the Mercedes in races. The hope for the bet must be a step change in upgrades for Mercedes relative to the front runners prior to the European season

The problem with this is that the Merc is quite a backward car aerodynamically, they have the engine, they have the driver but they don't have an Adrian Newey/similar to design something that will convert single lap pace to race pace

Not going to disagree, the race performance looked a bit disappointing.  He is now out to 10s. 

Got a big sweat on the masters so not going to be too down. 

Who are your Masters sweats Doobs? Remind me.

Got the World at the minute with the top 5.  One was put up by Neil and one by Dubai.  Just need to hold.  All looks horribly close to me.  Will be playing less tables than normal for a Sunday that is for sure.

[Snowball]

We are spoilt for choice in Televised football today.

Newcastle v Sunderland, Noon

Stoke v Man U, 2.05pm

Chelsea v Man C (FA Cup Semi ) 4pm.

Ahhem, small matter of the 2nd Scottish Cup semi final, the first semi was one of the games of the weekend so far only beaten in entertainment by the Andulician Derby on Friday night.

[tikay]

BetVictor have a bunch of DeCanio specials. I cannot link at present, but they are on Oddschecker.

They include "DeCanio to wear a Sunderland scarf today, 5/2".

!

Doubt anyone will get much on, but looks a long odds on shot to me.

[tikay]

We are spoilt for choice in Televised football today.

Newcastle v Sunderland, Noon

Stoke v Man U, 2.05pm

Chelsea v Man C (FA Cup Semi ) 4pm.

Ahhem, small matter of the 2nd Scottish Cup semi final, the first semi was one of the games of the weekend so far only beaten in entertainment by the Andulician Derby on Friday night.

Whoops. I was building up to that one......

[outragous76]

There is a finish top 5 market on betfair. Westwood is 5.5. There are plenty of chokers and old guys ahead, and westy under no pressure this far back. Seems like a bet to me. Suggest £20

He is also 50s to win. Suggest £2 for the sweat and chance of a good day

Thanks Guy, welcome back.

What do you think the correct prices for Westwood should be? Betty prices, as a general rule, are rarely far out. Deffo happy to get on, but only if we are getting a good price, & personally, I have no idea.

Just some more on that Westwood suggestion. He is around 48 on Betty, and best prices 40/1 with the bookies, so that is encouraging.

Just to clarify my preferred bet is westy top 5 @ 5.5 for £20

As for value, I'm no bookie, but pretty sure from this spot he is a good shout. No pressure out early, and he has played well to date.

[Doobs]

BetVictor have a bunch of DeCanio specials. I cannot link at present, but they are on Oddschecker.

They include "DeCanio to wear a Sunderland scarf today, 5/2".

!

Doubt anyone will get much on, but looks a long odds on shot to me.

This has to go down as a tikay bet for the thread.  Sure a swift 20 will be OK if we all promise to look the other way.

Edit Only downer is the local weather forecast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2642607

[TightEnd]

There is a finish top 5 market on betfair. Westwood is 5.5. There are plenty of chokers and old guys ahead, and westy under no pressure this far back. Seems like a bet to me. Suggest £20

He is also 50s to win. Suggest £2 for the sweat and chance of a good day

Thanks Guy, welcome back.

What do you think the correct prices for Westwood should be? Betty prices, as a general rule, are rarely far out. Deffo happy to get on, but only if we are getting a good price, & personally, I have no idea.

Just some more on that Westwood suggestion. He is around 48 on Betty, and best prices 40/1 with the bookies, so that is encouraging.

Just to clarify my preferred bet is westy top 5 @ 5.5 for £20

As for value, I'm no bookie, but pretty sure from this spot he is a good shout. No pressure out early, and he has played well to date.

Would love Westwood to do well, but can't see 9/2 as great value for this bet

old guys and chokers?

cabrera, sned, scott, woods, kuchar, langer, furyk  - some old but not chokers I don't think

day, leishman, clark less proven in the choke department

Westwood has to outperform 5 of these, without an early starter coming through and posting a 66-67, to finish top 5

Wantmnore than 9/2 for this myself. I might argue that in majors Westwood is the biggest choker/worst putter of any of the names mentoned

[outragous76]

Tighty

I'm happy for people to comment I just like the bet

Remember westy doesn't need to win so choking no issue for this bet. As for him outplaying 5 of those guys I don't think that's a problem. Langer, Cabrera, will not be top 5, Scott has the chance to fall to bits.

I've no problem if Fred doesn't get on, just throwing it out there

[tikay]

BetVictor have a bunch of DeCanio specials. I cannot link at present, but they are on Oddschecker.

They include "DeCanio to wear a Sunderland scarf today, 5/2".

!

Doubt anyone will get much on, but looks a long odds on shot to me.

This has to go down as a tikay bet for the thread.  Sure a swift 20 will be OK if we all promise to look the other way.

Edit Only downer is the local weather forecast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2642607

Marv, they have now - unsurprisingly - removed the Market.

The remaining DeCanio specials don't make so much appeal, partly Comedy/Novelty stuff really. I can now C & P the link, as I'm out of the bath. Don't even think about it.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/newcastle-v-sunderland/paolo-di-canio-specials

[tikay]

Tighty

I'm happy for people to comment I just like the bet

Remember westy doesn't need to win so choking no issue for this bet. As for him outplaying 5 of those guys I don't think that's a problem. Langer, Cabrera, will not be top 5, Scott has the chance to fall to bits.

I've no problem if Fred doesn't get on, just throwing it out there

Thanks Guy, noted. We will continue to ruminate a while yet.

[TightEnd]

Tighty

I'm happy for people to comment I just like the bet

Remember westy doesn't need to win so choking no issue for this bet. As for him outplaying 5 of those guys I don't think that's a problem. Langer, Cabrera, will not be top 5, Scott has the chance to fall to bits.

I've no problem if Fred doesn't get on, just throwing it out there

but, for example, on what basis are we saying definitively "Cabrera will not be top 5"?

that he's 43 years old?

He's won two majors since 2007, 48 career wins and perhaps all we are doing is remembering two bogeys in the final back nine last year? but he still finished 7th...

Scott "might fall to bits" er, why? Based on the end of last year's open where he still finished second?

Anyway, as I say, hope Westwood does have a great run. Just not a price for me.

[tikay]

I watched Jason Day very closely yesterday, particularly when he was going through his pre-shot routine.

Is he a bit, umm, eccentric? Bit of a Parnevik?

He seems to have some weird mind-theories, sort of out-thinks himself.

For his sake, I hope he wins, but I'd be a layer, all day.

[tikay]

BetVictor have a bunch of DeCanio specials. I cannot link at present, but they are on Oddschecker.

They include "DeCanio to wear a Sunderland scarf today, 5/2".

!

Doubt anyone will get much on, but looks a long odds on shot to me.

This has to go down as a tikay bet for the thread.  Sure a swift 20 will be OK if we all promise to look the other way.

Edit Only downer is the local weather forecast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2642607

Trust you to consider the weather, which never crossed my mind.

He has appeared. Not a scarf in site.

[Dubai]

If backing people off the pace you obviously need someone capable of shooting low, sounds like common sense but some of the players games just aren't setup to shoot 65 etc.

Nick Watney is leading the masters for the last two rounds, a terrible +6 opening round sums his game up round here, always seems to throw a bad one in but is one of only a handful of people capable of birding most holes. He shot 68 yesterday including 4 bogeys!!! I'm not for one minute suggesting he is going to win and shoot a 63/64. But he definitely is capable of going low

I recommend @259/1win, @12/1 top 5. Thoughts?