Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

If backing people off the pace you obviously need someone capable of shooting low, sounds like common sense but some of the players games just aren't setup to shoot 65 etc.

Nick Watney is leading the masters for the last two rounds, a terrible +6 opening round sums his game up round here, always seems to throw a bad one in but is one of only a handful of people capable of birding most holes. He shot 68 yesterday including 4 bogeys!!! I'm not for one minute suggesting he is going to win and shoot a 63/64. But he definitely is capable of going low

I recommend @259/1win, @12/1 top 5. Thoughts?

Fearless, you.

Don't you have a Zoo to visit?

[Dubai]

Watneys also shot a 65 on the last day of the masters before from off the pace

[Snowball]

Wright was priced 33/1 again today, got a good draw.
Taylor and Whitlock have been drawn together in the first round but the PDC only give us this information 15 minutes before the event starts:(

[tikay]

Wright was priced 33/1 again today, got a good draw.
Taylor and Whitlock have been drawn together in the first round but the PDC only give us this information 15 minutes before the event starts:(

For what Event? (Wright).

[Junior Senior]

There is a finish top 5 market on betfair. Westwood is 5.5. There are plenty of chokers and old guys ahead, and westy under no pressure this far back. Seems like a bet to me. Suggest £20

He is also 50s to win. Suggest £2 for the sweat and chance of a good day

Thanks Guy, welcome back.

What do you think the correct prices for Westwood should be? Betty prices, as a general rule, are rarely far out. Deffo happy to get on, but only if we are getting a good price, & personally, I have no idea.

Are the prices divided if he ties top five or do we get paid 5.5 for a top 5? If the latter we should get on.

[Dubai]

Dead heat rules always apply in golf so you get 1/4 your stake as a winning bet on the place part if 4 people were tied top 5 etc

[Karabiner]

I watched Jason Day very closely yesterday, particularly when he was going through his pre-shot routine.

Is he a bit, umm, eccentric? Bit of a Parnevik?

He seems to have some weird mind-theories, sort of out-thinks himself.

For his sake, I hope he wins, but I'd be a layer, all day.

Although undoubtedly talented, Day is excruciatingly slow which makes him very hard for me to watch.

His missus on the other hand..

[JaffaCake]

Fred has a quid ew on one golfer, quid fifty on another? Is Fred stretched? Does he need to borrow some money? If he finds anyone lending, tell me who!

[Graham C]

There is a finish top 5 market on betfair. Westwood is 5.5. There are plenty of chokers and old guys ahead, and westy under no pressure this far back. Seems like a bet to me. Suggest £20

He is also 50s to win. Suggest £2 for the sweat and chance of a good day

Thanks Guy, welcome back.

What do you think the correct prices for Westwood should be? Betty prices, as a general rule, are rarely far out. Deffo happy to get on, but only if we are getting a good price, & personally, I have no idea.

Are the prices divided if he ties top five or do we get paid 5.5 for a top 5? If the latter we should get on.

At the moment is that ties are very likely and you could miss out a 5th spot due to ties at 3rd and 4th.   At several points yesterday there were lots tied for third, next spot was 8th.  Doesn't this have to be taken into consideration?

[Karabiner]

Dead heat rules always apply in golf so you get 1/4 your stake as a winning bet on the place part if 4 people were tied top 5 etc

There was one firm that used to pay out in full for ties, I think they got taken over by spreadex.

[tikay]

Fred has a quid ew on one golder, quid fifty on another? Is Fred stretched? Does he need to borrow some money? If he finds anyone lending, tell me who!

Not quite skinto. Yet.

The £1ew was the Max they would allow me. Am severely Restricted with some Firms.

[tikay]

I watched Jason Day very closely yesterday, particularly when he was going through his pre-shot routine.

Is he a bit, umm, eccentric? Bit of a Parnevik?

He seems to have some weird mind-theories, sort of out-thinks himself.

For his sake, I hope he wins, but I'd be a layer, all day.

Although undoubtedly talented, Day is excruciatingly slow which makes him very hard for me to watch.

His missus on the other hand..

The meticulous preparation for every shot by Jason Day is in such contrast to "Waggle-Waggle-Waggle-Thwack" Dufner.

[tikay]

There is a finish top 5 market on betfair. Westwood is 5.5. There are plenty of chokers and old guys ahead, and westy under no pressure this far back. Seems like a bet to me. Suggest £20

He is also 50s to win. Suggest £2 for the sweat and chance of a good day

Thanks Guy, welcome back.

What do you think the correct prices for Westwood should be? Betty prices, as a general rule, are rarely far out. Deffo happy to get on, but only if we are getting a good price, & personally, I have no idea.

Are the prices divided if he ties top five or do we get paid 5.5 for a top 5? If the latter we should get on.

At the moment is that ties are very likely and you could miss out a 5th spot due to ties at 3rd and 4th.   At several points yesterday there were lots tied for third, next spot was 8th.  Doesn't this have to be taken into consideration?

Never thought of that, though I suppose it cuts both ways.

[Tal]

I'm looking at some chess markets atm, but have yet to come to anything definite. Probably won't be recommending anything so relax, Adz

Would someone help me with something in the interim, please?
How do I work out the overround on a market? Is it a case of adding up the percentage chances of success?

[doubleup]

Tighty

I'm happy for people to comment I just like the bet

Remember westy doesn't need to win so choking no issue for this bet. As for him outplaying 5 of those guys I don't think that's a problem. Langer, Cabrera, will not be top 5, Scott has the chance to fall to bits.

I've no problem if Fred doesn't get on, just throwing it out there

Thanks Guy, noted. We will continue to ruminate a while yet.

I think its an ok bet, I'll just never back Westwood again as I've had too many disappointments.

I've had a go at working out the score required to get into the top five (ie what he will have to score to get a top 5 spot). In the last 8 years he has achieved that score 8/28 overall, 3/12 in the last 2 rounds and 1/6 in the last round (last year).

So his performance seems to decline in the last round but he does still seem to be about a 5-1 shot and better than that if he produces his early round form due to a little less pressure.