Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Again bobby1 has it spot on for me. I love this thread for the sporting insight, and bits of sporting knowledge that people display, that show we have an edge.

The stand out maths opportunities are great, but it seems that we have too many popping up based on math and no sporting feel or "inside edge". I am like Sir Camel, happy to combine the both but prefer the well researched stuff, rather than a bookie error.

We have all the time in the world to punt, and while I like to follow most on here(even if some get a bit too much rope for insta bet status) shouldnt we look to find bets that combine both?

[nirvana]

Good value with Arsenal tonight at home. We'll be playing our strongest team with Gervinho and a whisper that Arshavin is out of retirement cause his scores lots against scouse teams

Arsenal also win a lot in April and I don't think the bookies have factored in that Arsenal always win the Top 4 cup and they need to win this to capitalise on the recent 8 from 9.

Great value at any price imo, get on - recommend £400. Plus Rosicky any time FGS - less sure about this so just a Hendo's Hundo on this one. Pls confirm

[BigAdz]

Not sure how you make that our strongest team if those three are in it, but will be cheering us on all the same!

[Tal]

Not sure how you make that our strongest team if those three are in it, but will be cheering us on all the same!

Nirvana levelling ITT

 

[superwomble]

we might need someone to collate the various snooker players that have been suggested so far. I've lost count at ten.

Any value in Ebdon at 126.0, 160.0 on Betfair?

I wouldn't bet him at that price tbh Womble, he seems to be declining as a player tho I wouldn't be amazed if that bit of the draw had an odd look to it later in the tourney. I can see Gould giving Murphy a tough game tho which could remove the seed from his 2nd round match if he does beat Dott.

Thanks for the reply bobby.

[tikay]

Not sure how you make that our strongest team if those three are in it, but will be cheering us on all the same!

One suspects that the octogenarian Nirvana is having a little sport with us, as is his wont...... he so nearly got it through, but the Arshavin comment was a step too far.......

[tikay]

Plenty to learn from the exchanges above, but I do hope nobody falls out over Fred. The contributions & help I have had from two friends of mine, bobby & Doobsy, have been immense, & the last thing I want to see is any of us falling oiut with each other.

We need to get back on the horse, & so I'll do the numbers & stick them up shortly.

[Dubai]

The thing to remember is everyone is still learning, so the more opinions posted and the more differing styles of posters the more we all learn which can only be a good thing.

One mores treasure is another mans junk in the same way ones mans value is another's mans Bismarck

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0900, Tuesday April 16th (covers 48 hours)

LOSS on Month = £1,235.80

Outstanding bets £1,740.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0930, Tuesday April 16th

Over the 48 hours, we registered a loss of £246.44.

Of this, £44 was on Basketball, with the balance, of just over £200, being on The Masters. Slightly less than I feared.

The losses were.....

NBA Game, -£44

Snedeker, -£25

Justin Rose -£100

Rory,-£50

Phil Mickelson, -£50

Furyk -£3

Stricker -£3

Westwood -£20

Watney -£42


Our winners were.....

Tiger Woods (EW), +15, down to a Priority Offer, so "FRED".

Lynn, Top Debutant EW, +£48, down to Bobby1

Scott, Outright, (£1ew!) £27.50, down to Doobsy.

Shame we got restricted on Scott, it was, quite literally, the difference between winning & losing for us on The Masters.

Note we had taken some Masters Lossses (Round One Leader, Top Debutant & Top Amateur) earlier, so the overall Masters loss was nearer £400.

For perspective, our TOTAL Profit since Day One, including Black April, is now down to £1,158, & our ROI is 2.34.

We ran the right side of variance for ages, & maybe this masked a few leaks. The Goddess of Variance, who I always visualise as a dominatrix, is giving us a good slapping right now.  

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

The weird thing is, that wasn't even taken from the internet

[Dubai]

Any idea a rough value of our outstanding bets so we can take a conservative notional value of roll?

[tikay]

World Championship Snooker

Below is our current mini-portfiolio. We lost two players already, but both were huge-priced Banzais. 

Jack Lisowski, £3 @ 100/1

Judd Trump £50 @ 8/1

(I now gather Kurt Maflin is out, so I have a £3 loss to take tomorrow)

Current prices are.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/world-snooker-championship/winner

There will be no limit, beyond the normal Bankroll rules, as to how much we invest, if we spot some value, we will bet it.

Based on what a good & trusted friend told me, someone who understands the snooker as well as anyone I know, Ronnie would be a wonderful value bet at 7/1. He is currently best-priced 13/2, even that looks value to me, but if you see his price touch 7/1, let me know please. I have had a decent bet myself at 7/1, & I'd rather like to press at that price.

Ronnie has been on sort of gardening leave, but I think he is diferent class.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Any idea a rough value of our outstanding bets so we can take a conservative notional value of roll?

Great question, & one I'd like you & others to try to answer.

£1,740 is forward invested, & all of it is included in the April numbers, here.....




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23


Some of the stuff is very easily written off, but the "Live" bets are harder to evaluate.

[tikay]

Any idea a rough value of our outstanding bets so we can take a conservative notional value of roll?

Just trying to get a handle on this.....

It breaks into three categories.

No-hopers, zed's dead baby.

Genuine "Live" bets which are in OK shape. (Say, QPR to be relegated).

Bets which are too ealy to assess the value of yet. (Say, IPL & County Cricket).

In the No-Hopers, I've just had a quick run through, & I reckon just south of £300 is seriously dead.

I'll try & assess the other two numbers shortly. Most of the liability will be in the "too early to assess" group though.