Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Will greenwood has just tweeted to say warren gatland will be announcing his lions captain at an event in exeter tonight.

Can't remember fred's bets on this but I think there is some exposure.

Thank you Reidy, & welcome to Fred.

We have an interest in two players, Warburton (quite a decent bet) &, I think, Heaslip (?).

I'm sure our lads wll be glued to Twitter tonight.

[tikay]

Golf - Open De Espana

I was looking to oppose Miguel Angel Jimenez in this tournament, as for those who dont know, Miguel broke his leg at the end of December(http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/golf/20872268) and this is is his first tournament back since. He actually only confirmed his participation in this event last week and stated he has played rounds of golf but almost all of them has been using a buggy. He played a pro am event on Sunday, and walked some of the course and used a buggy for the rest. He has stated he is not 100% and merely stated he aims to make the cut. Its no surprise he has drifted from 55.0 to 75.0.

I suspect he is rushing back too early and is only playing here due to this being the only Spanish tournament on the european tour schedule this year, as opposed to the 7 it hosted in 2010. All of the Spanish players are attending, and contending is probably at the back of his mind. He clearly loves the course, and knows it well but its due to be a windy tournament and is certainly not one to be taken on with a rushed preparation. Corals have placed him in a tournament match bet with Raphael Jacquelin @ 10/11. Excellent golf tipster SportsBettingIndex has tipped Jacquelin up to win the tournament, and makes a good case stating that he has played this venue a few times himself and has a "great long term record in Spain". He has made 5 out of 6 cuts this year, 17/25 last, and played fine in a warm up event in France last week, finishing mid pack and closing with the joint 2nd best closing round. All in all, hes a very solid/dependable player, whos good in the wind and likely to play well and make the cut. Making the cut, will actually probably be enough to win the bet.

There are a few different players(E.Molinari and A.Quiros) we could oppose Jimenez with, but both of those have been out with injuries and are a little unpredictable. So I think Jacquelin to beat Jimenez with Coral in their tournament match bet deserves a decent investment. Maybe around £55

I happy to hear any alternative views.

Hi Fellaini,

Well done last night, good point that.....


I don't know enough about golf to know what is what, but you have painted an amazing picture there, & at face value, it looks a terrific bet.

We are on, exactly as suggested.  Am doing my bedding plants right now, so details to follow later.

Thanks.

[redarmi]

Golf - Open De Espana

I was looking to oppose Miguel Angel Jimenez in this tournament, as for those who dont know, Miguel broke his leg at the end of December(http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/golf/20872268) and this is is his first tournament back since. He actually only confirmed his participation in this event last week and stated he has played rounds of golf but almost all of them has been using a buggy. He played a pro am event on Sunday, and walked some of the course and used a buggy for the rest. He has stated he is not 100% and merely stated he aims to make the cut. Its no surprise he has drifted from 55.0 to 75.0.

I suspect he is rushing back too early and is only playing here due to this being the only Spanish tournament on the european tour schedule this year, as opposed to the 7 it hosted in 2010. All of the Spanish players are attending, and contending is probably at the back of his mind. He clearly loves the course, and knows it well but its due to be a windy tournament and is certainly not one to be taken on with a rushed preparation. Corals have placed him in a tournament match bet with Raphael Jacquelin @ 10/11. Excellent golf tipster SportsBettingIndex has tipped Jacquelin up to win the tournament, and makes a good case stating that he has played this venue a few times himself and has a "great long term record in Spain". He has made 5 out of 6 cuts this year, 17/25 last, and played fine in a warm up event in France last week, finishing mid pack and closing with the joint 2nd best closing round. All in all, hes a very solid/dependable player, whos good in the wind and likely to play well and make the cut. Making the cut, will actually probably be enough to win the bet.

There are a few different players(E.Molinari and A.Quiros) we could oppose Jimenez with, but both of those have been out with injuries and are a little unpredictable. So I think Jacquelin to beat Jimenez with Coral in their tournament match bet deserves a decent investment. Maybe around £55

I happy to hear any alternative views.

This looks a cracking good bet to me.  Great find.

[Rubbish2407]

I've never met Neil, Dubai, Camel or any of the other full time pros on here and I certainly do not think I'm even remotely close to their standard but I would like to ask them if they think these bets I placed were -ev?

1. Someone, I think it may have been Bobby, tipped up Snedeker to win the Masters ages ago. Respecting his opinion I had £20 at 28.5 on Betfair, win only. Subsequently he picks up an injury and I toy with the idea of laying off for a loss but decide to let it ride as there is plenty of time before the Masters kicks off. On the eve of the Masters I lay Woods so have a green book apart from him and a decent win on Snedeker. At the end of the third day Sned is tied for the lead but I now do not fancy his chances and am leaning towards Cabrera. I therefore lay Snedeker off at 3.75 for my entire green, £700 odd, and fudge my book so I'm large green on Cabrera, decent green on most of the top ten, small green on the rest and red on Woods and Snedeker.

When it came to the play off I didn't alter my position, mainly because I was fast asleep!!!

2. I bet Cardiff a couple of weeks ago against Barnsley and everything seemed to go swimmingly. Cardiff took the lead after 60 minutes and seemed to be coasting but as I live in earshot of the ground I could tell after 80 minutes that something was wrong. I phoned my mate who was at the game and he told me Cardiff were getting smashed and were lucky to be still in the lead. Whilst on the phone to him Barnsley had two good chances and he basically said that there was no way Cardiff were going to win. By now the game was in injury time so I layed Cardiff sub 1.1. Barnsley equalised in the 96th minute.

Surely changing your position or laying something you originally backed if you're getting a strong vibe or good info is +ev?

[redarmi]

You did nothing wrong because you were making a judgement call.  I dont know whether you had +EV with the Cardiff bet its impossible to say but you were doing it on the basis of info that was probably not 100% factored into the price.  Snedeker I think is slightly different but you are making a value call on whether you think he is value and you don't so therefore it is fine to lay him.

[tikay]

Fulham play Chelsea tonight at Craven Cottage.

I think we'd be rather pleased to see Fulham win this, or at least hold Chelsea to a draw.

[Fellaini85]

Golf - Open De Espana

I was looking to oppose Miguel Angel Jimenez in this tournament, as for those who dont know, Miguel broke his leg at the end of December(http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/golf/20872268) and this is is his first tournament back since. He actually only confirmed his participation in this event last week and stated he has played rounds of golf but almost all of them has been using a buggy. He played a pro am event on Sunday, and walked some of the course and used a buggy for the rest. He has stated he is not 100% and merely stated he aims to make the cut. Its no surprise he has drifted from 55.0 to 75.0.

I suspect he is rushing back too early and is only playing here due to this being the only Spanish tournament on the european tour schedule this year, as opposed to the 7 it hosted in 2010. All of the Spanish players are attending, and contending is probably at the back of his mind. He clearly loves the course, and knows it well but its due to be a windy tournament and is certainly not one to be taken on with a rushed preparation. Corals have placed him in a tournament match bet with Raphael Jacquelin @ 10/11. Excellent golf tipster SportsBettingIndex has tipped Jacquelin up to win the tournament, and makes a good case stating that he has played this venue a few times himself and has a "great long term record in Spain". He has made 5 out of 6 cuts this year, 17/25 last, and played fine in a warm up event in France last week, finishing mid pack and closing with the joint 2nd best closing round. All in all, hes a very solid/dependable player, whos good in the wind and likely to play well and make the cut. Making the cut, will actually probably be enough to win the bet.

There are a few different players(E.Molinari and A.Quiros) we could oppose Jimenez with, but both of those have been out with injuries and are a little unpredictable. So I think Jacquelin to beat Jimenez with Coral in their tournament match bet deserves a decent investment. Maybe around £55

I happy to hear any alternative views.

Hi Fellaini,

Well done last night, good point that.....


I don't know enough about golf to know what is what, but you have painted an amazing picture there, & at face value, it looks a terrific bet.

We are on, exactly as suggested.  Am doing my bedding plants right now, so details to follow later.

Thanks.

Aye, it was a decent performance and probably just about a deserved point.

For those interested as well, Francesco Molinari tweeted that he withdrew from the pro am today due to a back problem which surfaced on Saturday at the Masters. He also revealed on European Tour Weekly on sky, that he hasnt hit a ball in since the Masters, you can get 10/11 Fernandez-Castano or Manassero against him with a few firms. That wouldnt be the worst bet in the world, but Im happy with the Jacquelin one. Beware the injured golfer, mind you.

[bookiebasher]

I know Fred is restricted on Stan James but you can back Leicester top 6 @ and
lay back on betfair at 5-4.

Strange one because they adjusted their prices last night to evens then this morning seem
to have reverted back to the prices before last nights results. Dont know if it's an account
buster or not but deffo wrong price. Everyone else odds on.

Palpable surely

You would obviously think that but I asked them to check the price with the trader and it was ok.

I must be an ice cream.

4/5 now.
What does palpable error mean?

It means an obvious error by the bookmaker which means they can void the bet.  Normally a typo or software glitch.  Shouldn't be used for an odds compilation error but some firms are not above that.

Especially Satan James.

Very surprised they can get away with that! Palpable or not, its an advertised price and should be laws to protect the punter

I can understand if someone has fat fingers and inputs an incorrect price but when I have gone through
customer services on the telephone and asked for confirmation from a trader and then he can't be arsed
to check to see if the price is correct , especially for a large amount , then to hide behind 'palable error'
is a little naughty. One look at oddschecker would have shown it to be wrong and I would have thought
one of their screens would be permanantly on oddschecker/easy odds.

They have not contacted me yet but I know of someone else who has had an email saying take 4-5 or void it.

[Dubai]

I've taken 2-1 the jolly t4 in first on sky, just should make all, didn't wanna put it up until confirmed I've broken my northern drought

Think it's a bet at 13/8+

[Tal]

I've taken 2-1 the jolly t4 in first on sky, just should make all, didn't wanna put it up until confirmed I've broken my northern drought

Think it's a bet at 13/8+

That'd be my nap in a competition somewhere...

[MajorMajor]

Its now. Max Kelly Welly bet!

[tikay]

Its now. Max Kelly Welly bet!

What is?

[MajorMajor]

I think I got the wrong end of the stick but it has worked out well. I thought the first race on the dogs was the 7.49, so I just had a tickle on trap 4 at SP, its only gone and won at 7-2!

[tikay]

I think I got the wrong end of the stick but it has worked out well. I thought the first race on the dogs was the 7.49, so I just had a tickle on trap 4 at SP, its only gone and won at 7-2!

Ha!

Awesome misclickage, even I would be proud of that one..

[scotty2hatty]

Meh, napped T4 earlier at 9/4 on WH. Going off at evens is no consolation.