Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I think we should bet the Red Sox as a partial hedge against our Rays position.  It is early in the season and I am certainly not panicking about our Rays position but the Red Sox are playing very well and whilst I think they should be 3/1 shots still you can bet 4/1 with BetVictor and that represent value for sure.  Suggest 50 @ 4/1

Done, thanks Stu.

The BetVictor price had gone, but both Paddy Power (who restricted me to £11) & Boylesports still had 4/1, so we are on with Boyle.

Boston Red Sox, £50 @ 4/1, Boylesports, American League East.

ON

Bet ref: 85/83 Boston Red Sox @ 4/1
MLB Divisions 2013
American League East
Total stake £50.00
Estimated return £250.00

[horseplayer]

betfair (sportsbook) refunding upto £100 if ronnies wins the title and you back someone else

not sure what bets were placed yesterday so might be irrelevant now

[Doobs]

betfair (sportsbook) refunding upto £100 if ronnies wins the title and you back someone else

not sure what bets were placed yesterday so might be irrelevant now

Free bet is here.

https://promotions.betfair.com/sbk-wc-snooker

This is all just information, I am not going to get involved in the ins and outs of if 13/2 or above on Neil Robertson was value.

They are offering 6/1 the top 4

Given the prices elsewhere then if you were to back Robertson, this is currently the best way to do it.

He is best price 13/2 elsewhere which beats betfair (7.2/7.4 curretly).  We can argue all day about what is his correct price, but assume he is 13/2 to win for the comparison. 

If we put £50 on Robertson the expected return on Betfair fixed odds would be £50/7.5x7 (Robertson wins) + £50/7.6 (O'Sullivan wins, 7.6 is the same assumption as yesterday) = £53.24. 

If you backed him at 13/2 and he was 13/2 to win, your expected return would be £50 long run.

To conclude, if you wanted to back Robertson, this offer effectively means you get better value than backing at best odds.

I think Shaun Murphy is marginally better then best price this way too (though you can only back one player under the offer). I haven't gone down further than 50/1, but don't think any of the others were better than best price if you backed them under the offer.

[DungBeetle]

Random observation but Andy Murray just threw in an absolutely horrific performance against Wawrinka at Monte Carlo.  He was beaten inside an hour!

[redarmi]

betfair (sportsbook) refunding upto £100 if ronnies wins the title and you back someone else

not sure what bets were placed yesterday so might be irrelevant now

Free bet is here.

https://promotions.betfair.com/sbk-wc-snooker

This is all just information, I am not going to get involved in the ins and outs of if 13/2 or above on Neil Robertson was value.

They are offering 6/1 the top 4

Given the prices elsewhere then if you were to back Robertson, this is currently the best way to do it.

He is best price 13/2 elsewhere which beats betfair (7.2/7.4 curretly).  We can argue all day about what is his correct price, but assume he is 13/2 to win for the comparison. 

If we put £50 on Robertson the expected return on Betfair fixed odds would be £50/7.5x7 (Robertson wins) + £50/7.6 (O'Sullivan wins, 7.6 is the same assumption as yesterday) = £53.24. 

If you backed him at 13/2 and he was 13/2 to win, your expected return would be £50 long run.

To conclude, if you wanted to back Robertson, this offer effectively means you get better value than backing at best odds.

I think Shaun Murphy is marginally better then best price this way too (though you can only back one player under the offer). I haven't gone down further than 50/1, but don't think any of the others were better than best price if you backed them under the offer.

I have no interest or knowledge of snooker.  Can someone just tell me what (if any) bets are +EV given this offer.  I quiote fancy picking up the free fiver in EV but dont want to work for an hour to do it!!!!

[The Camel]

Jacquelin 73 v Jimenez (a birdie free) 76

[Bazzaboy]

PP are ool with handicap on Hamilton v Taylor. Hamilton +2.5 is 5/4. 17/20 biggest elsewhere.

[Tal]

Our chess man played one of his niche pet openings today and it didn't work. He never really equalised against Caruana and ended up losing his opening round.

We knew there was a risk he would still be feeling the effects of the Candidates but Caruana is a hot and cold player; he will draw relatively few games and will give chances to his rivals. Beating each other up is par for the course.

Not ideal, but white pieces tomorrow against another of the big hitters, Karjakin. A chance to get the ground back.

[rfgqqabc]

I know Fred is restricted on Stan James but you can back Leicester top 6 @ and
lay back on betfair at 5-4.

Strange one because they adjusted their prices last night to evens then this morning seem
to have reverted back to the prices before last nights results. Dont know if it's an account
buster or not but deffo wrong price. Everyone else odds on.

Palpable surely

You would obviously think that but I asked them to check the price with the trader and it was ok.

I must be an ice cream.

Palped me.

[Junior Senior]

 

Jacquelin 73 v Jimenez (a birdie free) 76

Lowry - 78 (+6)!!

[tikay]

PP are ool with handicap on Hamilton v Taylor. Hamilton +2.5 is 5/4. 17/20 biggest elsewhere.

Top stuff Bazza, thank you. We got Maxed, of course, but £20 is better than nothing.

We have £20 @ 5/4, Paddy Power, Leg Handicap, Hamilton v Taylor, Hamilton + 2.5.

ON



Premier League Darts Andy Hamilton v Phil Taylor
18-04-2013 19:15
Leg Handicap
Andy Hamilton (+2.5) @ 5/4


Your Bets





Win
Single: Andy Hamilton (+2.5) @ 5/4
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
 Potential returns: £45.00
No: O/23146337/0000290

[tikay]

Jacquelin 73 v Jimenez (a birdie free) 76

Ha! You are on, too.

Really keen on this one.

Fingers crossed.

[tikay]

Our chess man played one of his niche pet openings today and it didn't work. He never really equalised against Caruana and ended up losing his opening round.

We knew there was a risk he would still be feeling the effects of the Candidates but Caruana is a hot and cold player; he will draw relatively few games and will give chances to his rivals. Beating each other up is par for the course.

Not ideal, but white pieces tomorrow against another of the big hitters, Karjakin. A chance to get the ground back.

Thanks Tal,

Now he must do it the hard way.

White tomorrow, so he starts with a small advantage.

All good.

[TL900]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/san-antonio-spurs-la-lakers/series-winner

One of these is a bet, not sure which one though. Think it might be lakers 6/1. Thoughts anyone?

[Bazzaboy]

Nice of Hamilton to chuck in his worst performance of the PL.