Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

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[tikay]

As if it were not bad enough to have Camel, Dubai & Chumpy on the BET BIGGER case, Lord Channing is ITT now.

I'm gonna go for a walk. I may be a while.

[Chompy]

6/4 all gone.

I haven't done the maths, but if your intention is to trade, isn't there a case for taking the shorter price on betfair anyway?

I assume Tikay is right up at/near 5% commission, so if you win on the betfair lay, that 5% is going to take a big chunk of a move from 6/4 to 5/4.  If you had a choice between 2.38 and 6/4, I am guessing 6/4 wins, but must be a lot closer if you could get 2.42*?

* all this is a bit theoretical now, as taking the 2.38 on betfair must be better than the current 7/5 best price.

Not with you Dooooooobs?

6/4 with no comm or 2.38 minus 5%?

[Doobs]

6/4 all gone.

I haven't done the maths, but if your intention is to trade, isn't there a case for taking the shorter price on betfair anyway?

I assume Tikay is right up at/near 5% commission, so if you win on the betfair lay, that 5% is going to take a big chunk of a move from 6/4 to 5/4.  If you had a choice between 2.38 and 6/4, I am guessing 6/4 wins, but must be a lot closer if you could get 2.42*?

* all this is a bit theoretical now, as taking the 2.38 on betfair must be better than the current 7/5 best price.

Not with you Dooooooobs?

6/4 with no comm or 2.38 minus 5%?

We are always planng to lay.  So we pay commission on the lay back if Arsenal lose?  So if we win £1000 on the lay we pay £50 commission.  If we back at 2.42 and lay at 2.24 we just pay on the difference.   Looking at it again 2.42 can't be better, as you lose £80 on the win.  Meh usual problems with 3 hours sleep on a Sunday night.

[TightEnd]

Betfair share price is currently up 5.53% on the day after the online gambling firm rejects a £912m takeover bid.

[redarmi]

Betfair share price is currently up 5.53% on the day after the online gambling firm rejects a £912m takeover bid.

Mark Davies who used to be a director of Betfair wrote a great piece on this in his blog the other day. http://www.markxdavies.com/2013/04/20/fantasy-betfair/

I would love to have a crack at working there and turning their exchange back around.  It is such an amazing missed opportunity.

[TL900]

David Lee of the Golden State Warriors just been announced out for the rest of the playoffs. Him and Curry are GSW best players so he is obv a huge blow.

They are playing Denver Nuggets in round 1 and currently trail 1-0 (97-95 victory in Denver) however Denver were without Kenneth Faried for that game and he returns for game 2 he is an animal and a decent defender. Gets a ton of rebounds at both ends of the floor and now that Lee is out (GSW best rebounder) i expect Faried to dominate the paints on both ends of the floor.

With this announcement and with Faried coming back in time for game 2 I think that Denver to win the series 4-0 @ 11/2 Coral (most other places 7/2 and 4/1) now becomes a decent price. Denver won the regular season series 3-1 with the defeat being by 1 point vs a full strength GSW team.

Suggest £25 Denver Nuggets to win the series 4-0 11/2 Coral

5/1 available with paddypower Coral gone to 4/1. 11/5 on 4-1 might be just as good/better, open to opinions. Cannot see GSW winning 2 games now though

[ripple11]

David Lee of the Golden State Warriors just been announced out for the rest of the playoffs. Him and Curry are GSW best players so he is obv a huge blow.

They are playing Denver Nuggets in round 1 and currently trail 1-0 (97-95 victory in Denver) however Denver were without Kenneth Faried for that game and he returns for game 2 he is an animal and a decent defender. Gets a ton of rebounds at both ends of the floor and now that Lee is out (GSW best rebounder) i expect Faried to dominate the paints on both ends of the floor.

With this announcement and with Faried coming back in time for game 2 I think that Denver to win the series 4-0 @ 11/2 Coral (most other places 7/2 and 4/1) now becomes a decent price. Denver won the regular season series 3-1 with the defeat being by 1 point vs a full strength GSW team.

Suggest £25 Denver Nuggets to win the series 4-0 11/2 Coral

5/1 available with paddypower Coral gone to 4/1.

Cheers

like Tikay, couldn't get a Corals price last night.

[Marky147]

Sounds like the plot of Dangerous Minds, where Michelle Pfeiffer goes into an inner city school and teaches the unruly pupils about poetry and how it relates to music (featuring the Dylan-Dylan contest).


Best chess film (I know, I know...) is called Searching for Bobby Fischer (it used to be called Innocent Moves). Has an excellent cast: Ben Kingsley, Laurence Fishburne, Joe Mantegna, WilliamH Macy. It is the true story of a young American lad who was billed as the next Bobby Fischer.

Josh Waitzkin didn't quite make it to the very top, although he is an International Master. It is a surprisingly realistic depiction of the junior chess scene.

Haven't seen that film, but remembered hearing about it when this guy came onto the poker scene a few years back http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Sarwer

He was one of the players in the movie, and by all accounts could have been the next Bobby Fischer...

There was a thread on 2p2 started about him after he started playing live poker a few years ago

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/jeff-sarwer-chess-prodigy-maybe-new-poker-prodigy-639004/

[Tal]

Sounds like the plot of Dangerous Minds, where Michelle Pfeiffer goes into an inner city school and teaches the unruly pupils about poetry and how it relates to music (featuring the Dylan-Dylan contest).


Best chess film (I know, I know...) is called Searching for Bobby Fischer (it used to be called Innocent Moves). Has an excellent cast: Ben Kingsley, Laurence Fishburne, Joe Mantegna, WilliamH Macy. It is the true story of a young American lad who was billed as the next Bobby Fischer.

Josh Waitzkin didn't quite make it to the very top, although he is an International Master. It is a surprisingly realistic depiction of the junior chess scene.

Haven't seen that film, but remembered hearing about it when this guy came onto the poker scene a few years back http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Sarwer

He was one of the players in the movie, and by all accounts could have been the next Bobby Fischer...

There was a thread on 2p2 started about him after he started playing live poker a few years ago

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/jeff-sarwer-chess-prodigy-maybe-new-poker-prodigy-639004/

Yes, another good story, his.

[BigAdz]

Have I lost the plot or something?

Just back from me trade fair in Munchen, and found out Jacelin won the golf, and not a word. Cant be arsed to go back too far, but sure it was tipped on here?

VVVWP whoever suggested it, unless im dreaming. 50-1 winner.Lovely!!

[horseplayer]

Have I lost the plot or something?

Just back from me trade fair in Munchen, and found out Jacelin won the golf, and not a word. Cant be arsed to go back too far, but sure it was tipped on here?

VVVWP whoever suggested it, unless im dreaming. 50-1 winner.Lovely!!

the jacquelin bet was a match bet (which won obviously)

[BigAdz]

Have I lost the plot or something?

Just back from me trade fair in Munchen, and found out Jacelin won the golf, and not a word. Cant be arsed to go back too far, but sure it was tipped on here?

VVVWP whoever suggested it, unless im dreaming. 50-1 winner.Lovely!!

the jacquelin bet was a match bet (which won obviously)




[/quote


Pretty sure he said was his fancy for the tourny too. Too tired to worry.

Whoever it was did me a turn so tyvm whoever it was

[tikay]

Golf - Open De Espana

I was looking to oppose Miguel Angel Jimenez in this tournament, as for those who dont know, Miguel broke his leg at the end of December(http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/golf/20872268) and this is is his first tournament back since. He actually only confirmed his participation in this event last week and stated he has played rounds of golf but almost all of them has been using a buggy. He played a pro am event on Sunday, and walked some of the course and used a buggy for the rest. He has stated he is not 100% and merely stated he aims to make the cut. Its no surprise he has drifted from 55.0 to 75.0.

I suspect he is rushing back too early and is only playing here due to this being the only Spanish tournament on the european tour schedule this year, as opposed to the 7 it hosted in 2010. All of the Spanish players are attending, and contending is probably at the back of his mind. He clearly loves the course, and knows it well but its due to be a windy tournament and is certainly not one to be taken on with a rushed preparation. Corals have placed him in a tournament match bet with Raphael Jacquelin @ 10/11. Excellent golf tipster SportsBettingIndex has tipped Jacquelin up to win the tournament, and makes a good case stating that he has played this venue a few times himself and has a "great long term record in Spain". He has made 5 out of 6 cuts this year, 17/25 last, and played fine in a warm up event in France last week, finishing mid pack and closing with the joint 2nd best closing round. All in all, hes a very solid/dependable player, whos good in the wind and likely to play well and make the cut. Making the cut, will actually probably be enough to win the bet.

There are a few different players(E.Molinari and A.Quiros) we could oppose Jimenez with, but both of those have been out with injuries and are a little unpredictable. So I think Jacquelin to beat Jimenez with Coral in their tournament match bet deserves a decent investment. Maybe around £55

I happy to hear any alternative views.

Morning.

Confirmation below of this bet, which I placed last night.

With hindsight, I think I should have had more on this one, maybe £110. In future, where I see what I think is a standout bet, I'll up the stakes. Too late in this case, as they closed the book at 0630 this morning.

We have £55 @ 10/11, Corals, 72 hole Match Bet, Jiminez v Jacquelin, JACQUELIN.

ON


17/04/2013 18:56PM  Single
To Win £ 55.00 Raphaël Jacquelin - Jiménez v Jacquelin - 72 Hole Match Bet - Tournament Match Betting @ 10/11 1.91

There you go Adzy.

Fellaini did mention that the guy could win Outright, but the bet was for the Match Bet.

He also predicted that making the cut would be enough to win the bet. And it was - by about 10 strokes!

One of the best bets ever suggested on Fred, if we assume that logic & value are the things that matter.

[BigAdz]

Ah Cheers Mr K.

Feels like the best misclick of all then.

Did the match bet, but for some reason had in head he said back to win as well. Sometimes it pays to have no time to read this place fully!!

First decent cuppa for two weeks and catch up on the bets I have missed order of the day.