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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16363743 times)
exstream
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« Reply #38670 on: April 22, 2013, 08:06:40 PM »
Benteke to score anytime on pp at 4/1.
Does Fred back special prices blind? It beats bf.
Can be layed too..
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Dubai
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« Reply #38671 on: April 22, 2013, 08:09:52 PM »
Tbf dont often disagree with Channing or Camel and never both in 5 mins but think a max is probably too much. 5/6 under 181.5 bf, we are taking 10/11, we've already agreed Kelly is too aggressive staking wise and that only suggest 3.4% of your roll bet. So if we half it then it becomes a bet of 1.7% of roll- so £51 for 3k roll.
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Dubai
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« Reply #38672 on: April 22, 2013, 08:11:18 PM »
And thats first time ive ever said bet less, but it seems we can easily work out what price we are getting, what price it should be and go from there. Unless we got a reason to believe market is wrong on bf and have a view on the totals (obviously betfair market is pretty weak etc but we'd need a reason to believe that market is gonna move before adjusting probabilties of winning imo)
« Last Edit: April 22, 2013, 08:15:02 PM by Dubai » Logged
tikay
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« Reply #38673 on: April 22, 2013, 08:11:43 PM »
Quote from: exstream on April 22, 2013, 08:06:40 PM
Benteke to score anytime on pp at 4/1.
Does Fred back special prices blind? It beats bf.
Can be layed too..

PP MAXED me at £1.78, so I never bothered, but thank you.

PS - Wm Hill offer 100/30, same bet.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2013, 08:14:05 PM by tikay » Logged
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
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« Reply #38674 on: April 22, 2013, 08:13:16 PM »
Quote from: Dubai on April 22, 2013, 08:09:52 PM
Tbf dont often disagree with Channing or Camel and never both in 5 mins but think a max is probably too much. 5/6 under 181.5 bf, we are taking 10/11, we've already agreed Kelly is too aggressive staking wise and that only suggest 3.4% of your roll bet. So if we half it then it becomes a bet of 1.7% of roll- so £51 for 3k roll.

We had £70.78, so I bet £26 MORE than Dubai suggests.

I AM A CONFIRMED DEGEN LEGEND.
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
TL900
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« Reply #38675 on: April 22, 2013, 08:14:14 PM »
181 definitely isn't massively out of line.

Totals in games involving these 2 teams this season:

In Memphis : 172, 178

In LA : 193, 181, 203(game 1 of playoffs).

Its in LA tonight.

No injuries to speak of from either side the total is never gona be too far out pregame when they have played numerous times this season
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@MtSpewmore
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I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
Dubai
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« Reply #38676 on: April 22, 2013, 08:15:45 PM »
Will add ive got zero opinion on over/under on the total. Just doing some rough maths
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the sicilian
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« Reply #38677 on: April 22, 2013, 08:23:06 PM »
Quote from: TL900 on April 22, 2013, 08:14:14 PM
181 definitely isn't massively out of line.

Totals in games involving these 2 teams this season:

In Memphis : 172, 178

In LA : 193, 181, 203(game 1 of playoffs).

Its in LA tonight.

No injuries to speak of from either side the total is never gona be too far out pregame when they have played numerous times this season

Tbh think my nets 1st qtr bet is best Smiley
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Just because you don't like it...... It doesn't mean it's not the truth
Junior Senior
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« Reply #38678 on: April 22, 2013, 08:31:30 PM »
The dog I got a strong tip on is Droopys Alfie in 20:37 at Notts. just looked on BF and its 1.3 lol
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« Reply #38679 on: April 22, 2013, 08:32:54 PM »
Quote from: Junior Senior on April 22, 2013, 08:31:30 PM
The dog I got a strong tip on is Droopys Alfie in 20:37 at Notts. just looked on BF and its 1.3 lol

It is a very early price, 4 are less than evens.  Need to give it some time.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Dubai
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« Reply #38680 on: April 22, 2013, 08:34:00 PM »
Quote from: Junior Senior on April 22, 2013, 08:31:30 PM
The dog I got a strong tip on is Droopys Alfie in 20:37 at Notts. just looked on BF and its 1.3 lol

No market. Look back 3/4 mins before off and go from there.
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Junior Senior
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« Reply #38681 on: April 22, 2013, 08:36:45 PM »
Betting SP is that track price?
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Doobs
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« Reply #38682 on: April 22, 2013, 08:39:12 PM »
Quote from: Junior Senior on April 22, 2013, 08:36:45 PM
Betting SP is that track price?

Nah, betfair SP.

Just do as Dubai says.  wait til close to the off
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
The Camel
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« Reply #38683 on: April 22, 2013, 08:42:19 PM »
Quote from: Dubai on April 22, 2013, 08:09:52 PM
Tbf dont often disagree with Channing or Camel and never both in 5 mins but think a max is probably too much. 5/6 under 181.5 bf, we are taking 10/11, we've already agreed Kelly is too aggressive staking wise and that only suggest 3.4% of your roll bet. So if we half it then it becomes a bet of 1.7% of roll- so £51 for 3k roll.

Wasn't saying I thought it was a max bet, just saying why Neil thought it was a max bet.
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Dubai
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« Reply #38684 on: April 22, 2013, 08:43:11 PM »
Nah i was disagreeing with ur 100/30 terrible value should be 5/1 about Utd winning by 1 goal mate
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