Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

There is a brand new event on the LPGA tour this week, The North Texas LPGA Shootout.

It is called a "shootout" because there is a cut after 36 holes and a further cut for the last round which just leaves the top 50, so basically a standard 72-hole strokeplay event on a course where nobody has any form at all.

The course is a fairly typical 6500 yards long.

Ji-Yai Shin is 20/1 with one major bookie which seems incredibly generous to me.

She may not win but she is no more than a 14/1 shot in my book.

I recommend that fred has £5 EW Ji-Yai Shin.

Thanks Ralph.

I am quite sweet on Miss Shin.

PS - Hope you have an enjoyable afternoon & evening.

We have £5 EW ? 20/1, Corals, JiYai Shin, North Texas Shootout

ON

Jiyai Shin20/1Outright - 25/04/2013Each Way
Stake £10.00
Estimated Return:£135.00Confirming BetsPlease do not click on any other link while we are confirming your bets. Please wait.

Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Return: £135.00

[tikay]

really like this bet tonight

with vcbet under match specials

Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
50 % Or Under
(Dortmund - Possession - Settled By Opta)
Odds: 5/6

So the bet is for dortmund to have at most 49% possession

Here are some stats

group stage

home to ajax won 1-0 45% possession

home to real madrid won 2-1 43% possession (real had 65% at home as well)

home to man city won 1-0 48% possession


knockout stage

home to s donetsk won 3-0 54% possession

home to malaga won 3-2 53% possession



Obviously the most telling stats from the above are the group stage matches against madrid.

Even when beating them at home they only managed 43% of the ball/

Ok so in the knockout they have "won" this bet twice at home. This is more related to them just completely blowing away s donestk (and still they "only" had 54%) And then Malaga which was an end to end game between two counter attacking sides.

Madrid have averaged 51.8% away in CL this season. Ok that does not look great but includes big "losses" away to Galatassary which really was a throw out and a non trying effort and Man City away were they led early then retreated massively.


Basically to sum up all the stats show that madrid are a more possession based side than dortmund. The fact this is the first leg is a slight worry but it wont change the natural playing styles of the sides or at least i dont think it will.

Suggest £45 with vcbet

Ooh, like that, & the first time we have had such a bet.

I note that BetVictor are doing Throw-Ins on this game tonight, too. Hmm......I did a lot of Throw In, Foul, & Goal Kick bets with Stan James, which led to the loss of my Account there.

Anyway, we have £45 @ 5/6, BetVictor, Dortmund to have UNDER 50% Possession.


ON

Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
 
50 % Or Under
(Dortmund - Possession - Settled By Opta)
 
Odds: 5/6
Stake: 45.00
 
Possible Return:  82.50

[tikay]

Another offer.

Paddy power are offering your stake back if you are 2nd to Sir Des Champs in the 17.30 at Punchestown tomorrow.  The max is £100.  They are top price about Long Run and First Lieutenant.  Suggest £100 (or as much as you can) on Long Run 17.30 Punchestown for the offers spreadsheet.

I think Long Run must still be the better horse out of that and First Lieutenant and didn't run at Aintree.  I think either are obviously very good value under this offer and it is more important to take the offer than worry about the horse.

I also suggest taking the 9/2 (best is 5/1) about First Lieutenant with BetVictor for the same race.  If it comes second to a Mullins horse (sir des champs) we get our £25 back.  

That should cover it.  

Thanks Doobs, Offer City.

PP maxed us at £19, but we took it.

Will do the BetVictor/First Leiutenant part later.

£19 @ 0/30, Long Run, 5.30 Punchestown, Money Back if Sir Des Champs wins. Bet owned by FRED.

[i]ON


 PUNCHESTOWN 17:30 PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP (GRADE 1) 3m 1f Money-Back Special
24-04-2013 17:30
Win or E/W
Long Run @ 10/3 (GP)
Your Bets

Win
Single: Long Run @ 10/3
1 line at £19.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £19.00
Potential returns: £82.33
No: O/23146337/0000299
[/i]

After discussion with MereAuditor, please note this bet is now owned by Doobs, NOT Fred, as I had originally indicated. Fred is for "Offers", & whilst this is an Offer, Doobs had to use a modicum of skillage to make the specific selection.

[tikay]

Anyone see the snooker Neil Robertson laid on Milkins when 3-1 up & 19 behind with just pink & black remaining?

What a wonderful shot, perfect touch.

[outragous76]

Anyone see the snooker Neil Robertson laid on Milkins when 3-1 up & 19 behind with just pink & black remaining?

What a wonderful shot, perfect touch.

Out of this world, a sublime touch

[Doobs]

One for the Fred offers sheet ?  Suggest backing both Call Me Bubbles and Viconte Du Noyer £25 win Punchestown 16.20 with BetVictor (top two in betting both W Mullins to potentially benefit from money back offer)
Betfair prices suggest one or the other wins approx 50% of time and a decent amount of time we get money back for 2nd place

Has possible implications for Fred if the moneyback were to be triggered as it's a one time only deal and we have a similar bet already later in the day

Thanks Simon.

I'll need the horse hexperts to cast their eye over that.

Good luck if you are on, same to us if we climb aboard.

You can't take the offer twice, so if you place this bet and it wins, you lose the offer for later.  

I'd say it was clearly bad to have two bets running on the same offer at once.  In the later race and the one we backed First Lieutenant you are getting below best price with betvictor, so you need the offer to make the bets in to "good" bets.  If the offer goes, you have then converted the later bet in to a bad one.

FWIW BetVictor are best about Call Me Bubbles, but didn't have a market last night.  So with hindsight it may have been better to start in that race, but it is too late for that now.  

Edit, just had a mess around on a spreadsheet just checking if I was right.  I assumed the real chance of winning of each of the horses was betfair mid price. 

On these assumptions, we would lose about £1 more on the First Lieutenant bet than we gain on the 2 new bets if we added the new bets.  If we new the prices BetVictor were going to put up, we would have been better backing Call Me Bubbles than either of the other two.  First Lieutanant is better on its own than Vinconte Du Noyer. 

World class swerving in the 16.20 and 16.55 which were arguably better races to take the offer on.  Big race next.  We need Long Run or First Lieutenant to win.  Sir Des Champs triggers the money back offers.

[tikay]

^^^^

Yup, big race for us.

Be great to get us off to another night like last night.  We shall see.

[hector62]

Kolkata score 158 with 4 sixes.

Small advantage to us, and I suppose if Tendulkar could score a fifty it would be good for us as he tends to go the terra firma route.

[Doobs]

^^^^

Yup, big race for us.

Be great to get us off to another night like last night.  We shall see.

Meh, 2nd and 3rd.  Great race.  Due some cash back

[tikay]

What a great race that was!

Not sure where that leaves us - money back on Long Run?

[tikay]

Kolkata score 158 with 4 sixes.

Small advantage to us, and I suppose if Tendulkar could score a fifty it would be good for us as he tends to go the terra firma route.

Thanks hector, I forgot about this. Will watch it now.

Good luck.

[Doobs]

What a great race that was!

Not sure where that leaves us - money back on Long Run?

Think so, will check the offer later.  got to feed kids

[tikay]

What a great race that was!

Not sure where that leaves us - money back on Long Run?

Think so, will check the offer later.  got to feed kids

Please, get your priorities tight.

[horseplayer]

http://www.zonalmarking.net/2013/04/24/dortmund-v-real-madrid-tactical-preview/

excellent preview as per for the above site

[Junior Senior]

really like this bet tonight

with vcbet under match specials

Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
50 % Or Under
(Dortmund - Possession - Settled By Opta)
Odds: 5/6

So the bet is for dortmund to have at most 49% possession

Here are some stats

group stage

home to ajax won 1-0 45% possession

home to real madrid won 2-1 43% possession (real had 65% at home as well)

home to man city won 1-0 48% possession


knockout stage

home to s donetsk won 3-0 54% possession

home to malaga won 3-2 53% possession



Obviously the most telling stats from the above are the group stage matches against madrid.

Even when beating them at home they only managed 43% of the ball/

Ok so in the knockout they have "won" this bet twice at home. This is more related to them just completely blowing away s donestk (and still they "only" had 54%) And then Malaga which was an end to end game between two counter attacking sides.

Madrid have averaged 51.8% away in CL this season. Ok that does not look great but includes big "losses" away to Galatassary which really was a throw out and a non trying effort and Man City away were they led early then retreated massively.


Basically to sum up all the stats show that madrid are a more possession based side than dortmund. The fact this is the first leg is a slight worry but it wont change the natural playing styles of the sides or at least i dont think it will.

Suggest £45 with vcbet

This gone 8/11 now. TFT got bookies running scared