Tips for Tikay

[ripple11]

Ricky Walden ew for the World Championship @ 16/1


Jus' sayin'

Just to give the detail behind this


O'Sullivan 9-7 up on Carter.

Winners plays Bingham or Davis

--
Murphy v Trump QF


Winners of these two quarters play.


In the other half

Walden leads Milkins 9-4 when I last looked

Winner plays  m White who has had a soft route through Williams a weak seed and Dechawat a real outsider, albeit a player who played well above himself to beat Maguire

---

Ding level with King

Winner plays Hawkins


The players in that bottom half will never get a better chance to get to the final

I had assumed it must be Ding at 13-2 ish (now 9-2, so we have missed that boat proposed sailing in yesterday), but Walden is the second highest ranked player, and showing form miles above anything shown all year

If we assume he gets to a semi, v Ding, we are basically getting 5-1+ him beating Ding (16-1 Boyle sports ew 1-2 1/3)

With the added bonus it might not be Ding

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/world-snooker-championship/winner

So lots of options open at that point


I would take Boylesports for the Walden bet asap.

cheers guys...now 14/1

[The Camel]

Walden played abysmally in the last 4 frames.

Marv

[scotty2hatty]

Just caught up. As Marky and Tikay hinted we were supremely close to landing both UFC bets. The Miller non-1st round win actually cost me a very decent 4 figure scoop.

I know my stakes are amongst the smallest on the thread, for some reason I can't bring myself to recommend more even though I know I have a bigger edge on the MMA bets than a lot of the other suggested bets. It'll come.

[cheapwetsuit]

Stumbled upon this banzai I placed a few weeks ago:

No.   Selections   Event   Event Date   E/W Terms   Odds   Result
1   CH Gayle   Indian Premier League 2013 - Bangalore Royal Challengers
(Top Batsman)   26/05/2013   None   1.57   To Run
2   MEK Hussey   Indian Premier League 2013 - Chennai Super Kings
(Top Batsman)   26/05/2013   None   3.75   To Run
3   SE Marsh   Indian Premier League 2013 - Kings XI Punjab
(Top Batsman)   26/05/2013   None   3.40   To Run
4   G Gambhir   Indian Premier League 2013 - Kolkata Knight Riders
(Top Batsman)   26/05/2013   None   3.25   To Run
5   SR Watson   Indian Premier League 2013 - Rajasthan Royals
(Top Batsman)   26/05/2013   None   3.20   To Run
6    Warner   Indian Premier League 2013 - Delhi Daredevils
(Top Batsman)   26/05/2013   None   4.00   To Run
Multiples
Bet Type   No of Bets   Unit Stake   Stake   To Return   Returns
6 Folds   1   5.00   5.00   4,167.43
   
Can someone please tell the coach at Kings XI to give Shaun Marsh a bat. I'll make it worth his while

[tikay]

Just caught up. As Marky and Tikay hinted we were supremely close to landing both UFC bets. The Miller non-1st round win actually cost me a very decent 4 figure scoop.

I know my stakes are amongst the smallest on the thread, for some reason I can't bring myself to recommend more even though I know I have a bigger edge on the MMA bets than a lot of the other suggested bets. It'll come.

You should ONLY recommend what you feel comfortable with, Scott.

I know that hector, another successful regular, also with a very good +ROI, feels the same.

 If Fred, or regulars, want to bet more, that is up to them. You should only recommend what you would bet yourself.

Many of the more successful regulars here also recommend relatively small stakes.

PS - Well done again on 3 winners out of the last 4. We wuz robbed.

[scotty2hatty]

Going to suggest only max bets from now on, Dubai style.

[tikay]

Going to suggest only max bets from now on, Dubai style.

Gulp.......

[sharky_uk]

Aftertime Alert

A couple of weeks ago I posted on this thread about the form factor in golf and how a system based solely on recent form can prove profitable. In this post I mentioned Billy Horschel.

I backed Horschel, on Betfair, before the start of the Zurich Classic at 38 (he was matched in running at prices up to 250) on the basis that he'd had three top ten finishes in his last three tournaments.

He tied the course record with an impressive final round 64 to beat D.A. Points by one stroke.

Incidentally D.A. Points won the Houston Open at the start of April and I also highlighted him as one to watch in my previous post on this thread.

I will post my picks for this week later once I have completed my analysis

[BigAdz]

Aftertime Alert

A couple of weeks ago I posted on this thread about the form factor in golf and how a system based solely on recent form can prove profitable. In this post I mentioned Billy Horschel.

I backed Horschel, on Betfair, before the start of the Zurich Classic at 38 (he was matched in running at prices up to 250) on the basis that he'd had three top ten finishes in his last three tournaments.

He tied the course record with an impressive final round 64 to beat D.A. Points by one stroke.

Incidentally D.A. Points won the Houston Open at the start of April and I also highlighted him as one to watch in my previous post on this thread.

I will post my picks for this week later once I have completed my analysis

I included Billy in my 2x2 bet this weekend on the golf, with your comments echoing as I made them


2013-04-23 20:05:55     Double   

O/0061571/0000164   8   
40.00   Matched   0.00   


Winner : Winner
Bernd Wiesberger   Back   

23.00 EW:1/4 1,2,3,4,5   

Lost   


Winner : Winner
Billy Horschel   Back   

36.00 EW:1/4 1,2,3,4,5   

Matched   


Winner : Winner
Marcus Fraser   Back   

34.00 EW:1/4 1,2,3,4,5   

Place   


Winner : Winner
Thorbjorn Olesen   Back   

36.00 EW:1/4 1,2,3,4,5   

Matched   



Sadly Mr Fraser managed to get beat in a play off....sigh

[doubleup]

Aftertime Alert

A couple of weeks ago I posted on this thread about the form factor in golf and how a system based solely on recent form can prove profitable. In this post I mentioned Billy Horschel.

I backed Horschel, on Betfair, before the start of the Zurich Classic at 38 (he was matched in running at prices up to 250) on the basis that he'd had three top ten finishes in his last three tournaments.

He tied the course record with an impressive final round 64 to beat D.A. Points by one stroke.

Incidentally D.A. Points won the Houston Open at the start of April and I also highlighted him as one to watch in my previous post on this thread.

I will post my picks for this week later once I have completed my analysis

Well done on your win.  Horschel was def good value.  




But


IIRC you put up D.A. and Martin Laird for the Masters on the basis that they had won the previous two weeks and now you appear to have modified your system to a more nebulous "recent form".  Form is def a huge factor - that's why Justin Rose was fav for the tournament, but if it is the holy grail how do you explain Kyle Stanley and Bobby Gates being in the top 5?

[sharky_uk]

What I said was...

My first post on this thread.....

I have been betting on golf for many years and have a theory that whilst there are many factors that can be taken into consideration, by far the most important factor is 'recent form'. So much so that a system based on this single factor can prove very profitable. Based on this I backed Billy Horschel before the start of last weeks Texas Open on Betfair (65) given that he had come 2nd the previous week in the Houston Open. Whilst he did not win the Texas Open he lead after rounds 1, 2 & 3 and I was able to lay him off (with a big chunk at < 2) to make a decent profit.

Based on this theory I have 2 picks that are available on Betfair at unbelievable prices that just cannot be ignored.

D.A. Points (440) - Winner of the Houston Open just 2 weeks ago
Martin Laird (160) - Winner of last weeks Texas Open

In my opinion the above players represent huge value at these prices and I would expect them both to trade at significantly below these prices during the course of the tournament providing an opportunity of a decent profit even if they do not win.

What do you think?

I have actually developed a database and algorithm which produces a rating for players based on their recent form. Prior to the Zurich Classic, Horschel came top of these ratings by some distance despite him never having actually won a tournament. My method has always been based on form not necessarily previous wins. I am not saying it's the holy grail, just that it can help to identify value!

[horseplayer]

one thing this thread is not lacking is after timing

[TightEnd]

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[MajorMajor]

MornIng TK
The early IPL game is the Royals vs the Challengers. Over 9.5 sixes is evens with Ladbrokes. Both team have bog hitters and Gayle or Watson could hit ten on their own. Really like this bet. Everywhere else is 5-6.

Recommend 50quid over 9.5 sixes. Starts at 11.

[doubleup]

value is the thing.  These are the last ten us winners with their previous 2 weeks positions (haven't put in this weeks yet).

Graeme McDowell   cut   45
Adam Scott   3   10
Martin Laird   cut   34
D.A. Points   cut   68
Tiger Woods   1   37
Tiger Woods   37   1
Michael Thompson   cut   cut
John Merrick   15   57
Brandt Snedeker   2   2
Phil Mickelson   51   37


So recent form is obv important but it doesn't help find a few these winners and you would be backing a lot of "form" players each week.