Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Would make Trump less likely to beat Ronnie than Murphy, so sort of good news for your Selby bet.

I think!

Doesn't thread have a Trump bet?

Quite so - £50 @ 8/1, down to Tighty.

We also have "money back on Selby" if Ronnie wins.

Ronnie looks the biggest cert ever.

[rfgqqabc]

Messi sub. Not Fit. Opportunity to be on barca.

Market seems to have overlooked the fact that Gomez is on the bench for Bayern.  I have had a small tickle on Barca at 2.14 given the dynamic.

Tickle more at 2.24?

[horseplayer]

Messi sub. Not Fit. Opportunity to be on barca.

Market seems to have overlooked the fact that Gomez is on the bench for Bayern.  I have had a small tickle on Barca at 2.14 given the dynamic.

Tickle more at 2.24?

Gomez was always going to be on the bench with mand back and available. If anything it enhances bayern chance much more mobile and quicker and a better presser.

[tikay]

Rumbled.

The ever vigilant MereAuditor has caught me fiddling the Spready.

He fills everything in EXCEPT the result, & the profit/loss on each bet - that is my job. My only job. And I got that wrong.

The problem is specific to Betfair Exchange, where I had not been taking the 5% commission into account. In fact I had never seen it, because I mostly use my i-Pad for Betfair stuff, & Commission is not shown on mobile devices, from what I gather.

Anyway, I don't think it makes much sense to trawl back through all the old Betfair bets & correct the returns to allow for Commission - in relative terms, Fred does not use Betfair very much, although I use it a fair bit off-Thread.

[TightEnd]

Snooker

Ronnie 8/15 v Trump 13/8

Walden 11/10 v Hawkins 10/11



Ronnie 10/11
Trump 9/4
Hawkins 7/1
Walden 8/1

Thread £50 Trump 8-1, £30 e/w Walden 16/1 1/3 1-2

When the Trump bet on, the draw was a distance away and there was no indication that after a year off Ronnie would be at 100%. Of course soon afterwards the stories started coming about Ronnie's practice form, then Trump fell away in China and seeding fell to 4 which put him in Ronnie's half.

Can he beat him? Most people will say no, and that is reflected in the prices above. One thing was clear in his post Murphy press conference though, he won't be over-awed and will certainly give it a good go

Could hedge, but not a great fan here of putting £100 onto Ronnie to get the £50 Trump stake back


If Walden can beat Hawkins, which as prices indicate is a very hard game to predict, thread scoops on the 5.25-1 each way part of the bet for The Camel and covers the Trump stake anyway

In truth, that's probably the best hope! 

I am hoping for a Ronnie/Trump classic. Shame to most neutral observers its not the final

[redarmi]

The king is dead!!! Long live the king!!

[Karabiner]

Hawkins will be having a serious anti-Hawkins funk in that semi.

[Tal]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/snooker/22376834

Ronnie with his typical candour effectively does an Audley and announces his retirement.

Worrying to hear a player that successful hasn't been able to pay his children's school fees (assuming that's true of course).

[Marky147]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/snooker/22376834

Ronnie with his typical candour effectively does an Audley and announces his retirement.

Worrying to hear a player that successful hasn't been able to pay his children's school fees (assuming that's true of course).

A million that he's under it in any way, shape or form!

[Tal]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/snooker/22376834

Ronnie with his typical candour effectively does an Audley and announces his retirement.

Worrying to hear a player that successful hasn't been able to pay his children's school fees (assuming that's true of course).

A million that he's under it in any way, shape or form!

Quite.

[BigAdz]

Congrats Mr Adz.

Not a tip for Fred but for you I think Gambhir to top score for Kolkata in this afternoons IPL game at odds of 11/4 will serve you well.

Thankfully the wedding was already paid for Hector. I see our man was out for 0.

See you all in a few days. Happy punting

[TightEnd]

Local Elections tomorrow

I think UKIP might clean up, relative to expectations

- The normal protest vote, Lib Dem, is off the agenda for many as they are part of the goverment

"mid-way through a parliament it is the second or third parties who steal the spoils. But Ed Miliband is polling badly for a Labour leader three years into a Tory-led government. As for the Lib Dems, the traditional protest party in local elections, Coalition has been nothing but catastrophic for them in the polls."

- UKIP is polling at national highs, 14% in the last ComRes poll this week

"The party has been riding high in the polls at around 15% over recent weeks. Don’t expect that to change off the back of a few negative stories."

Indeed there are reports that major party rubbishing of the UKIP has backfired, and it is a measure of how concerned the major parties are that the scare stories came out for the weekend press

- "UKIP is fielding 1,745 candidates, three times as many as it did the last time these seats were fought in 2009. The Lib Dems are fielding 1,763 candidates"


Recommend

£60 UKIP Share of national vote over 17.5% William Hill at 5/6

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/4390457/UKIP-national-share-of-the-vote-on-2nd-May-2013-elections..html
 

Alternative recommend

"Peter Kellner and I have been pondering the number of UKIP seat gains if they do get 22% (the joys of the YouGov office on a morning before an election!) and how on earth you model gains when they are tripling the number of seats they contest. It’s very difficult, but I suspect I have overestimated it a bit… though even assuming a higher base level of support in the areas they didn’t contest in 2009 (and therefore a lower swing in the seats they did) if they do get 22% they should still be looking at well over 100 seats. Suffice to say, how many seats UKIP will get on Thursday is still incredibly hard to predict."

Over 100 seats gained 6/4 Ladbrokes

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/local-elections/total-ukip-seats-gained

references


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22019280

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ YouGov have tried Local Election opinion polling and come up with a figure of 22% for UKIP, with a number of caveats

Guido Fawkes the Conservative blogger recommended over 50 seats at Evens 48 hours ago in this

http://blog.paddypower.com/2013/04/29/guido-fawkes-bring-on-the-clowns-why-im-tipping-ukip-to-take-50-seats-in-thursdays-local-elections/

Market moved to 1/10 and got withdrawn


As a cross-check, PP offer a market on UKIP share in the South Shields by-election, and make over 22.5% a 4/7 shot....

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/uk-politics

That's in the safest Labour seat and its tricky to extrapolate any reference to national vote share but taking over 17.5% definitely feels like the best of it....




Disclaimer: Recommendation does not reflect my personal politics, just a betting transaction for financial gain, I hope

Over 17.5% into 8/13

Over 100 seats is at Evens

This was published overnight too

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/02/my-prediction-ukip-to-gain-100-seats-and-get-a-big-result-in-south-shields/

[DungBeetle]

Beyond the realms of possibillity but would be hilarious if UKIP won South Shields.

[TightEnd]

Beyond the realms of possibillity but would be hilarious if UKIP won South Shields.

Would be a bit sad really, I have them at Evens to finish second. This moved to 1/10 last week....

[Tonji]

A quick cycling bet:

Tom Danielson, PP are out of line @ 8/1. He is a regular top 10 finisher in stage races. 4th in Romandie last week, he has some form coming into the Giro.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-d-italia/top-10-finish