Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Think we should back Nahki Wells as first goal scorer in tonight's Bradford/Burton game.  He has scored about 1 in 3 of Bradford's goals this season.  He is young and improving all the time and Bradford have home advantage.  He is a standout 5/1 with Corals and Paddy Power (4/1 elsewhere), which seems a little big (4/1 or 9/2 feels about right).   I haven't got any team news, and he doesn't start every game.  His twitter is enthusiastic about tonight, so he seems likely to start.

Suggest £25.

I also think we should back What A Name for the 1000 Guineas.  You won't go far wrong backing French horses blind in big races, but this one form at 2 that was as good as any in the race (barring perhaps Sky Lantern).  She was pitched in against the Colts for her last 3 races (won 2, was 2nd in the Grand Criterium on heavy), which must show the connections thought a lot of her.  The 5/1 has been gradually going, and just beats Betfair, but you can still get it at BetVictor, Paddy Power and Ladbrokes.  The favourite in the race was impressive last time, despite getting behind.  Hot Snap, the favourite, looked impressive last time, but looks a bit short and I think she was better value for the Oaks(unfortunately the 10/1 went yesterday).

Anyway here she is winning a bit cosily last time after getting slightly impeded.  I wouldn't worry about the distance she won by, cosy wins are standard in French trials



Suggest £25 win.     

[tikay]

Am back online mid afternoon, will get up to date then. Gardening leave ftw

[aaron1867]

Am back online mid afternoon, will get up to date then. Gardening leave ftw

Just say you're sick, we would all believe you after all the mis-clicks in the past

[Jamier-Host]

Idiots......cant they just press a button and settle everyones bet !!??

Bit odd that, they don't settle bets manually, one at a time, they would have a computer programme which auto-settles bets. Or I assumed they did.

Knocked me back too saying due to "the possibility of Warburton not being selected due to injuries etc"

Replied saying that selection for the first game should have no bearing on a "tour captain" bet.  We'll see...

[TightEnd]

Idiots......cant they just press a button and settle everyones bet !!??

Bit odd that, they don't settle bets manually, one at a time, they would have a computer programme which auto-settles bets. Or I assumed they did.

Knocked me back too saying due to "the possibility of Warburton not being selected due to injuries etc"

Replied saying that selection for the first game should have no bearing on a "tour captain" bet.  We'll see...

I would counter with other bookies specifically offering "To be the first test captain" as the market. In which case, fine, don't pay out now

Their market was "Who will be the tour captain"?

that's announced, and even if Warburton gets injured and isn't on the plane he was announced as tour captain!

[superwomble]

Idiots......cant they just press a button and settle everyones bet !!??

Bit odd that, they don't settle bets manually, one at a time, they would have a computer programme which auto-settles bets. Or I assumed they did.

Knocked me back too saying due to "the possibility of Warburton not being selected due to injuries etc"

Replied saying that selection for the first game should have no bearing on a "tour captain" bet.  We'll see...

I would counter with other bookies specifically offering "To be the first test captain" as the market. In which case, fine, don't pay out now

Their market was "Who will be the tour captain"?

that's announced, and even if Warburton gets injured and isn't on the plane he was announced as tour captain!

I've just seen that someone on Twitter has gone to IBAS about this.

[Chompy]

Doooooobs - recommending £25 at 5/1 Nakhi, who you think should be a 9-2 shot? Not much of an edge in a FGS market?

Tote/Baldfred are holding the 9/2 about Aidan having no UK Classic winners this year. Apparently they're not taking big bets any more but...GET ON!

Be surprised if Hannon or Bolger don't win the 2000, and he's got an 8-1 shot and a 33-1 outsider in the 1000.

9/2 is so so wrong.

[david3103]

Just caught frame 2 of Ronnie v Judd and if the rest is going to be this good (including the Lady Ref) then it's going to be a treat. What price over 30 frames total?

[Doobs]

Doooooobs - recommending £25 at 5/1 Nakhi, who you think should be a 9-2 shot? Not much of an edge in a FGS market?

Tote/Baldfred are holding the 9/2 about Aidan having no UK Classic winners this year. Apparently they're not taking big bets any more but...GET ON!

Be surprised if Hannon or Bolger don't win the 2000, and he's got an 8-1 shot and a 33-1 outsider in the 1000.

9/2 is so so wrong.

There seems to be a trend for people saying don't do bet A, do bet B.  What is that about?  Surely you can do both?

Am currently saving up my Danny Swanson Sklansky bucks for the trip to Vegas in the summer.  Much better value than those Swedish Euros you tipped, those currency markets are so fickle.

I have done as instructed obviously*.  Now get on Nahki, be careful with the spelling chap.

* The slip just says classic winners, and not UK classic winners, hope they aren't going to do a Ladbrokes** to us.

** Mine isn't settled either

[ripple11]

Idiots......cant they just press a button and settle everyones bet !!??

Bit odd that, they don't settle bets manually, one at a time, they would have a computer programme which auto-settles bets. Or I assumed they did.

Knocked me back too saying due to "the possibility of Warburton not being selected due to injuries etc"

Replied saying that selection for the first game should have no bearing on a "tour captain" bet.  We'll see...

I would counter with other bookies specifically offering "To be the first test captain" as the market. In which case, fine, don't pay out now

Their market was "Who will be the tour captain"?

that's announced, and even if Warburton gets injured and isn't on the plane he was announced as tour captain!

I've just seen that someone on Twitter has gone to IBAS about this.

I emailed David Williams , head of PR.... also got the told it was "captain of the first test" .....errrrrr no it wasn't!!

[The Camel]

David Williams is of as much use as a chocolate teapot.

[horseplayer]

Doooooobs - recommending £25 at 5/1 Nakhi, who you think should be a 9-2 shot? Not much of an edge in a FGS market?

Tote/Baldfred are holding the 9/2 about Aidan having no UK Classic winners this year. Apparently they're not taking big bets any more but...GET ON!

Be surprised if Hannon or Bolger don't win the 2000, and he's got an 8-1 shot and a 33-1 outsider in the 1000.

9/2 is so so wrong.

There seems to be a trend for people saying don't do bet A, do bet B.  What is that about?  Surely you can do both?

Am currently saving up my Danny Swanson Sklansky bucks for the trip to Vegas in the summer.  Much better value than those Swedish Euros you tipped, those currency markets are so fickle.

I have done as instructed obviously*.  Now get on Nahki, be careful with the spelling chap.

* The slip just says classic winners, and not UK classic winners, hope they aren't going to do a Ladbrokes** to us.

** Mine isn't settled either

no need for a dig about Swanson surely?

The two are completely different bets.

Swanson was being priced up as a defensive midfielder or even a full back when infact he was playing behind the striker or at least more advanced. The fact he failed to score when fred bet him is irrelevant, he was priced incorrectly.

These are the sort of edges we need to find, Nacky Wells may well be an ok price at 5-1 but he is hardly prolific and that is a standard price for a striker fgs.

[Doobs]

Doooooobs - recommending £25 at 5/1 Nakhi, who you think should be a 9-2 shot? Not much of an edge in a FGS market?

Tote/Baldfred are holding the 9/2 about Aidan having no UK Classic winners this year. Apparently they're not taking big bets any more but...GET ON!

Be surprised if Hannon or Bolger don't win the 2000, and he's got an 8-1 shot and a 33-1 outsider in the 1000.

9/2 is so so wrong.

There seems to be a trend for people saying don't do bet A, do bet B.  What is that about?  Surely you can do both?

Am currently saving up my Danny Swanson Sklansky bucks for the trip to Vegas in the summer.  Much better value than those Swedish Euros you tipped, those currency markets are so fickle.

I have done as instructed obviously*.  Now get on Nahki, be careful with the spelling chap.

* The slip just says classic winners, and not UK classic winners, hope they aren't going to do a Ladbrokes** to us.

** Mine isn't settled either

no need for a dig about Swanson surely?

The two are completely different bets.

Swanson was being priced up as a defensive midfielder or even a full back when infact he was playing behind the striker or at least more advanced. The fact he failed to score when fred bet him is irrelevant.

These are the sort of edges we need to find, Wells may well be an ok price at 5-1 but he is hardly prolific and that is a standard price for a striker fgs.

Sigh,  just banter with the chompster, surely was clear.   Wouldn't have all those Sklansky bucks if I hadn't backed it. 

[DungBeetle]

Nice.  Didn't realise the playoffs were starting already.  Assume there is one every night now

[tikay]

There is an interesting tournament matchbet in the Wella Fargo Championship golf this week on SpreadEx. The bet pits Hunter Mahan against Lucas Glover with both men 10/11 and the tie 14s.

Glover is coming off a seasons best tie for 4th at the Zurich Open and goes to Quail Hollow boasting a previous win at the track (2011), a 2nd (2009), a 4th (2006) and a 10th (2004). He has missed just two cuts in 9 previous tries at the course.

Mahan, on the other hand, has missed two of his past three cuts with the one make seeing him not survive the round three cut at the Heritage to finish 91st. He has broken par just once in his last 8 rounds. His best finish at Quail Hollow is a tie for 12th in 2008 and he has failed to play the weekend on 4 of his 9 appearances.

The only mitigating factor I see against Glover here is the fact his wife is due to have a child on May 16th and he has intimated he would have no hesitations in walking off the course if she went into labour early. Seems like a stretch to eliminate a plus ev bet on that basis though.

I recommend £55 for Fred at 10/11 with SpreadEx fixed odds.

Apologies, I was a little pre-occupied with other (work) stuff this week, so I missed this, but I hope a few others gave it consideration.

I shall now pay more attention.