Tips for Tikay

[Jamier-Host]

Ladbrokes bet settled

[tikay]

Hi Tikay..

Suggested bet for this weeks Golf Euro Tour Event -  in China (obv)

Jose Manuel Lara Top Ten @ 18/1 spreadex  - If you haven't got an account with them,  BF fixed odds are 14/1 which is still a decent price imo.

Reasoning:-

-  After long run of missed cuts, he has made the last 3 including 11th last time out in Ballentines
-  Stats for last time out tourney at ballentines included 10th for driving accuracy and 9th for GIR so his game is in decent shape
-  Has won previously in Asia ()
-  China Open is played this year on Seaside course with expected high winds  -he has some decent results in such conditions, (eg siciillian, klm)
-  Has favourable draw (out early tomorrow)
-  Has come top 10, 36 times out of 348 euro tour events

I've also backed him outright @ 150/1 and also FRL @ 100/1 but think top 10 is best bet

See what anyone else thinks but for reckon 20 @ 18/1 if you can get seems good

Cheers

Tom

Hi Tom - same message as I gave to rinswun - apologies, hope the bet wins.

[tikay]

Ladbrokes bet settled

Yay! Same here.

Spooky timing. I just - literally 2 minutes ago - asked Vince to stick the bet back on the Spready as "Unsettled" for the sake of the integrity of the numbers.

Now I need to write to him again.

Dear Vince,

I am writing this slow, as I know you can't read fast.

You know that Warburton bet palaver. Well........

Great news, really pleased with that.

[tikay]

Doooooobs - recommending £25 at 5/1 Nakhi, who you think should be a 9-2 shot? Not much of an edge in a FGS market?

Tote/Baldfred are holding the 9/2 about Aidan having no UK Classic winners this year. Apparently they're not taking big bets any more but...GET ON!

Be surprised if Hannon or Bolger don't win the 2000, and he's got an 8-1 shot and a 33-1 outsider in the 1000.

9/2 is so so wrong.

Now then Mr Chompy.

We already have £80 @ 9/2, & £17.50 @ 8/1, but if you feel that strongly, I've no objection to pressing.

Shall I try for another £50 or so, bringing us up to a MAX?

I should add at this stage that I did the bet myself, too, off-thread, for a chunky sum. I had in mind that if, say, we got past the Guineas & the Derby with the bet still intact, & Aiden had, say, a 20/1 shot in the Oaks or Leger, we could easily insure the bet for £5 or £10. (In before "pissing away equity"....).

It just seems to make sense to me to take cover later if need be.

So, shall we press?

[tikay]

Local Elections tomorrow

I think UKIP might clean up, relative to expectations

- The normal protest vote, Lib Dem, is off the agenda for many as they are part of the goverment

"mid-way through a parliament it is the second or third parties who steal the spoils. But Ed Miliband is polling badly for a Labour leader three years into a Tory-led government. As for the Lib Dems, the traditional protest party in local elections, Coalition has been nothing but catastrophic for them in the polls."

- UKIP is polling at national highs, 14% in the last ComRes poll this week

"The party has been riding high in the polls at around 15% over recent weeks. Don’t expect that to change off the back of a few negative stories."

Indeed there are reports that major party rubbishing of the UKIP has backfired, and it is a measure of how concerned the major parties are that the scare stories came out for the weekend press

- "UKIP is fielding 1,745 candidates, three times as many as it did the last time these seats were fought in 2009. The Lib Dems are fielding 1,763 candidates"


Recommend

£60 UKIP Share of national vote over 17.5% William Hill at 5/6

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/4390457/UKIP-national-share-of-the-vote-on-2nd-May-2013-elections..html
 

Alternative recommend

"Peter Kellner and I have been pondering the number of UKIP seat gains if they do get 22% (the joys of the YouGov office on a morning before an election!) and how on earth you model gains when they are tripling the number of seats they contest. It’s very difficult, but I suspect I have overestimated it a bit… though even assuming a higher base level of support in the areas they didn’t contest in 2009 (and therefore a lower swing in the seats they did) if they do get 22% they should still be looking at well over 100 seats. Suffice to say, how many seats UKIP will get on Thursday is still incredibly hard to predict."

Over 100 seats gained 6/4 Ladbrokes

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/local-elections/total-ukip-seats-gained

references


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22019280

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ YouGov have tried Local Election opinion polling and come up with a figure of 22% for UKIP, with a number of caveats

Guido Fawkes the Conservative blogger recommended over 50 seats at Evens 48 hours ago in this

http://blog.paddypower.com/2013/04/29/guido-fawkes-bring-on-the-clowns-why-im-tipping-ukip-to-take-50-seats-in-thursdays-local-elections/

Market moved to 1/10 and got withdrawn


As a cross-check, PP offer a market on UKIP share in the South Shields by-election, and make over 22.5% a 4/7 shot....

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/uk-politics

That's in the safest Labour seat and its tricky to extrapolate any reference to national vote share but taking over 17.5% definitely feels like the best of it....




Disclaimer: Recommendation does not reflect my personal politics, just a betting transaction for financial gain, I hope

Over 17.5% into 8/13

Over 100 seats is at Evens

This was published overnight too

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/02/my-prediction-ukip-to-gain-100-seats-and-get-a-big-result-in-south-shields/

You are the greatest Tighty. I hope.

"Politics" will soon be in profit for Fred.

[ripple11]

Ladbrokes bet settled

Excellent.....the power of blonde 

[tikay]

I know I have asked this 17 times before, & got the answer "end of April", but when will the LeBron (NBA Superstar or whatever) bet be settled?

Not been announced yet?

[tikay]

Think we should back Nahki Wells as first goal scorer in tonight's Bradford/Burton game.  He has scored about 1 in 3 of Bradford's goals this season.  He is young and improving all the time and Bradford have home advantage.  He is a standout 5/1 with Corals and Paddy Power (4/1 elsewhere), which seems a little big (4/1 or 9/2 feels about right).   I haven't got any team news, and he doesn't start every game.  His twitter is enthusiastic about tonight, so he seems likely to start.

Suggest £25.

I also think we should back What A Name for the 1000 Guineas.  You won't go far wrong backing French horses blind in big races, but this one form at 2 that was as good as any in the race (barring perhaps Sky Lantern).  She was pitched in against the Colts for her last 3 races (won 2, was 2nd in the Grand Criterium on heavy), which must show the connections thought a lot of her.  The 5/1 has been gradually going, and just beats Betfair, but you can still get it at BetVictor, Paddy Power and Ladbrokes.  The favourite in the race was impressive last time, despite getting behind.  Hot Snap, the favourite, looked impressive last time, but looks a bit short and I think she was better value for the Oaks(unfortunately the 10/1 went yesterday).

Anyway here she is winning a bit cosily last time after getting slightly impeded.  I wouldn't worry about the distance she won by, cosy wins are standard in French trials



Suggest £25 win.     

We need to get Fred buzzing again, & I'm back on the case, so lets get started with a juicy winner. Mr Wells is currently around 5.3 in an illiquid betfair market.

£25 @ 5/1, Corals, Nahki Wells, FGS, Bradford v Burton.

ON


Wells5/1Bradford v Burton - 02/05/2013Stake £25.00
Estimated Return:£150.00  .

Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Return: £150.00

[tikay]

Think we should back Nahki Wells as first goal scorer in tonight's Bradford/Burton game.  He has scored about 1 in 3 of Bradford's goals this season.  He is young and improving all the time and Bradford have home advantage.  He is a standout 5/1 with Corals and Paddy Power (4/1 elsewhere), which seems a little big (4/1 or 9/2 feels about right).   I haven't got any team news, and he doesn't start every game.  His twitter is enthusiastic about tonight, so he seems likely to start.

Suggest £25.

I also think we should back What A Name for the 1000 Guineas.  You won't go far wrong backing French horses blind in big races, but this one form at 2 that was as good as any in the race (barring perhaps Sky Lantern).  She was pitched in against the Colts for her last 3 races (won 2, was 2nd in the Grand Criterium on heavy), which must show the connections thought a lot of her.  The 5/1 has been gradually going, and just beats Betfair, but you can still get it at BetVictor, Paddy Power and Ladbrokes.  The favourite in the race was impressive last time, despite getting behind.  Hot Snap, the favourite, looked impressive last time, but looks a bit short and I think she was better value for the Oaks(unfortunately the 10/1 went yesterday).

Anyway here she is winning a bit cosily last time after getting slightly impeded.  I wouldn't worry about the distance she won by, cosy wins are standard in French trials



Suggest £25 win.     

We gotta horse.

Thanks Doobs.

£25 @ 5/1, Ladbrokes, What a Name, 1000 Guineas, Newmarket, Sunday.

ON

What A Name
 
Qipco 1000 Guineas
Singles - Ante Post 1 line @ £25.0 per line.Total Stake £25.00Potential Return £150.00 Receipt No: O/142640973/0000327

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T.

With winners last month rarer than coming across a lady sporting a merkin, I think the co-op rugby league is ready to come to our assistance. Tonight Swinton host Whitehaven. This is an interesting fixture because Swinton have Lee Briers playing for them on his way back from injury. Briers is Warringtons stand off and one of the all time greats. He is however in his mid 30's and one of the fatest things you will see on a rugby league pitch. His main strength nowadays is his offensive kicking game but for that to work the other players have to be on the same wave length as him and that is unlikely. I think the market has over reacted to his likely influence, and we can get a generous 12 point start on Whitehaven whose recent form is solid.

Suggest £20 Whitehaven +12 @ Evs with Paddy Power.

[superwomble]

My Lads bet settled too, oddly enough half an hour after they had told me again that there was no way it would be! Muppets!

[Jamier-Host]

My Lads bet settled too, oddly enough half an hour after they had told me again that there was no way it would be! Muppets!

Indeed.  5 minutes ago I got another email reiterating their position on the matter (i.e won't pay out until 1st match)

[Chompy]

Doooooobs - recommending £25 at 5/1 Nakhi, who you think should be a 9-2 shot? Not much of an edge in a FGS market?

Tote/Baldfred are holding the 9/2 about Aidan having no UK Classic winners this year. Apparently they're not taking big bets any more but...GET ON!

Be surprised if Hannon or Bolger don't win the 2000, and he's got an 8-1 shot and a 33-1 outsider in the 1000.

9/2 is so so wrong.

Now then Mr Chompy.

We already have £80 @ 9/2, & £17.50 @ 8/1, but if you feel that strongly, I've no objection to pressing.

Shall I try for another £50 or so, bringing us up to a MAX?

I should add at this stage that I did the bet myself, too, off-thread, for a chunky sum. I had in mind that if, say, we got past the Guineas & the Derby with the bet still intact, & Aiden had, say, a 20/1 shot in the Oaks or Leger, we could easily insure the bet for £5 or £10. (In before "pissing away equity"....).

It just seems to make sense to me to take cover later if need be.

So, shall we press?

The price is wrong, so you should be getting as much on as possible. If he binks a Guineas winner, so be it, but we're well on the right side.

In the 2000 he has Cristoforo Colombo, who's exposed and only won a maiden in five runs last year. This is a strong renewal and, if an exposed colt in first-time headgear manages to win, so be it. Joseph has chosen him ahead of Mars, who lacks experience and will prob find this too sharp on fast ground.

In the 1000 he has Moth @ around 8/1 and a 33/1 shot.

Fwiw I'd be surprised if both races didn't go to one at the head of the market. Dawn Approach @ 6/4 and Toronado @ 9/4 take a massive chunk out of the 2000 market, and I think Hot Snap wins the 1000.

If she does, she'll probably go clear favourite for the Oaks. She's a half-sister to Midday and could well stay, even though she's by Pivotal.

The Derby is probably the best chance of a winner for AO'B but it's still 6/1 the field and we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

That just leaves the Leger, which he hasn't won since 2005. The race doesn't seem to fit into his schedule with 3yos these days and the machine that is Camelot got beaten at a short price in it last season.

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr T.

With winners last month rarer than coming across a lady sporting a merkin, I think the co-op rugby league is ready to come to our assistance. Tonight Swinton host Whitehaven. This is an interesting fixture because Swinton have Lee Briers playing for them on his way back from injury. Briers is Warringtons stand off and one of the all time greats. He is however in his mid 30's and one of the fatest things you will see on a rugby league pitch. His main strength nowadays is his offensive kicking game but for that to work the other players have to be on the same wave length as him and that is unlikely. I think the market has over reacted to his likely influence, and we can get a generous 12 point start on Whitehaven whose recent form is solid.

Suggest £20 Whitehaven +12 @ Evs with Paddy Power.

Hi hector.

Yes, a few winners would not go amiss, I've been a bit waylaid with other stuff but am keen to get back on the horse.

Fittest, or fastest?!    I have just awoken from a late afternoon snooze, & was a bit grumpy, but that made me laugh.

PP maxed me @ £10, so we had to split it & take a slightly worserer price for half of it, & I upped the stake for ease of numbery things.

£10 @ Evens, Paddy Power, Whitehaven, +12, to beat Fatty Briers lot.

£11 @ 10/11, Ladbrokes, Whitehaven, +12, to beat Fatty Briers lot.

ON

Co-operative Championship Swinton v Whitehaven
02-05-2013 19:30
Handicap Betting
Whitehaven (+12.0) @ evens
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Whitehaven (+12.0) @ evens
1 line at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £10.00
Potential returns: £20.00
No: O/23146337/0000304

 
_____

Whitehaven RLFC 12.0
 
Swinton Lions v Whitehaven RLFC
Singles - Handicap Betting 1 line @ £11.0 per line.Total Stake £11.00Potential Return £21.00 Receipt No: O/142640973/0000328

[MahoganyVic]

Has the aiden o'brien special been pulled at Freds? Can't find it anywhere