Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Widnes put in a shocking 1st half performance last night to cost us any chance of a win, they then won the 2nd half but too little too late. On better news GMAC is 4 up after 8 in his last 16 match versus Bo Van Pelt. 3G is also going well.

This morning I shall feel like a proper punter by going out of my way to visit a Coral shop to take advantage of their 13/8 about the UK coming 21st or lower in the Euro Gayfestivus. Maybe you should put another £10 on it to go with the £4 you have already invested.

[tikay]

Declaration Of War can currently be laid at 3.35.

To explain, what you'd be looking to do is lay £200 @ 3.35. Then wait for it to drift to, say, around 4, and have £150 (back) on it at that price. That way everything else wins you £50 and DOW loses you £70.

Obv if he shortens up you're gonna lose a few quid but that's the gamble. Maybe just watch this one, see what would have happened, and then try one in the near future.

If he was going to mega-kontiki he'd be sliding by now and, in this case, you'd probably need to be laying £500+ to make it worthwhile. I'd still be surprised if he doesn't drift though, especially once the Hills £50 @ 5/2 backers try to lay it back at 3.45 to pay for a bag of crisps and can of special brew.

That make sense?

After I read it 903 times, yes, well almost.

Just one question, same as before...

By "lay £200 @ 3.35", you mean for a liability of £470, yes?

If you put a lay of £200 in betfair the liability is £200  oops my bad it is on the software I use - but on the betfair interface it would be a liability of £470.

btw if you have a WH free bet you could do worse than put it on modern tutor newbury 2.40 at 13/2.  Obv a trcky race but the stable is in great form and the horse is hooded for the first time which has been a profitable stat.

Thanks, am happy to go with Modern Tutor, but the Free Bet sort of "belongs" to Doobs, so I'd welcome his view first.

[BigAdz]

Had deleted morning line of the sky plus when Cunningham appearing every week.

Bored, so just gone plus one, and they have sunk to new depths as R Pershad is fronting the programme.

Saturday kitchen it is.....

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Widnes put in a shocking 1st half performance last night to cost us any chance of a win, they then won the 2nd half but too little too late. On better news GMAC is 4 up after 8 in his last 16 match versus Bo Van Pelt. 3G is also going well.

This morning I shall feel like a proper punter by going out of my way to visit a Coral shop to take advantage of their 13/8 about the UK coming 21st or lower in the Euro Gayfestivus. Maybe you should put another £10 on it to go with the £4 you have already invested.

Morning H.

Widnes - BAD

McDowell - EXCELLENT

E-thing? OK, we are on. Rather naughtily, for another £20, not £10. Chompy told me, he knows about the E-thing.

£20 @ 13/8, Corals, UK to finish 21st to 26th, E-thing.


ON



Single
(To Win)

18/05/2013 09:12:02

coral web


Open

£20.00

Bet Selection Details

21st to 26th - Eurovision Song Contest 2013 - UK Finishing Position

13/8

 Open

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £52.43

Outstanding Bets £1434.50

Overall Profit £1110.04 ROI 2.04%

We won £36.25 yesterday and were close to a bigger win. Doobs' four horses of the Knavesmire produced two wins, and a short-head away from a third ,for a profit of £56.25

In the losers column the gallant Vikings from Widnes lost to the nasty Giants from Huddersfield 22-36 to record a £20 loss. No wonder Supermarkets are encroaching on the business of independent Milkmen.

We are well placed on two golf bets. McDowell won his second group stage match in the Matchplay 4 and 2 and goes into the final 16 a 4-1 shot, we have 17/2

Craig Lee leads the field in Madeira -9 at the half way stage and is 5 shots ahead of Karlberg. Both shot 68 yesterday, so there is plenty to play for in that one.

In the cricket a rather dull Test Match is producing a Stats bonanza. Unfortunately not for Swann yet. Although the pitch is turning the conditions are Anderson friendly. Anyway, some stats...

Anderson took his 300th Test wicket yesterday. The late great Fred Trueman, if he were still around would be saying that "it weren't like that in my day" as Trueman took 14599 balls to reach 300 wickets, Willis 15718 and Botham 16410. Anderson bowled 17667 balls to take 300 wickets.

Interestingly (tikay begins to regret handing over reports...) it was the first time since 1935 that all six England batsmen reached 15 but none reached 50. Told you it was interesting.

Excitement in County Cricket. Middlesex are poised to beat Somerset thanks to bowling them out twice in two days, Irishman (of the Andy Townsend once went to Dublin airport variety) Tim Murtagh took 10 wickets. Chasing 70 to win the rain came. I have scoured Taunton weather reports today, and I am fingers crossed as that really would be unfortunate, to miss out on the win in these circumstances

In Division Two, Northampton are in a position to force a win against Leicestershire. Aussie Trent Copeland, a Jimmy Anderson-lite, took 7-63 to give us a shot.

Today, we will be both backing and laying (and probably commissioning a portrait of it too) Declaration of War leaving your correspondent to sift through the detritus of the spreadsheet afterwards in the vain hope that tikay has mastered Betfair.

We have another Doobs Four horse of (hopefully not the) Apolcalypse to go at with the William Hill offer

We have a prizefighter boxer. Never seen prizefighter. Might have to swot up on it today. A Hearn thing?

We have the conclusion of the Premiership tomorrow, where we can anti funk Chelsea and funk Arsenal. Even Tal, for the good of the thread

Its Northampton-Bradford and Brentford-Yeovil this weekend too.  Northampton should be a high scoring game. I am hoping for Brentford to make it, I must say.

We are tantalisingly close to a profit for the month but Saturdays are always the worst day of the week for us. I wonder why that might be?

We'll see what today brings.  

[tikay]

Brilliant Report again, you are wasted here.

Stats? Love 'em.

Half a mark deducted for failure to mention "Heavy Roller".

Half a mark added for mention of "Weather Report".

Guess I'd better to some photo stuff, I was absent all day yesterday, working. WTF?

[BigAdz]

Coral got same £25 free bet if second job that WH has.

I didnt understand the maths of the bet the first time, but does having additional opportunities help?

[tikay]

Coral got same £25 free bet if second job that WH has.

I didnt understand the maths of the bet the first time, but does having additional opportunities help?

In theory, yes, additional opportunities are +EV I think, but it does assume we make the theoretically correct selections.

Doobs gave us an explanation of how the numbers worked this morning, as follows......


 am going to introduce some heroic assumptions.

Take Harris Tweed.  We know he is 5/2 to win.  If we assume he is also around 5/2 to finish 2nd.  

Chance of 1st = chance of 2nd = .285

If we bet £25 we have .285 chance of winning £87.50 and .285 of winning £25.  So total EV is expected to be .285 x (87.50 + 25) = £32.14

That is roughly the same as we'd get if we were getting 7/2 on our 5/2 chance (.285 x £112.5)

In the end we won't get this much in the long run because
1) even if we use our free bet very wisely, we aren't going to make it worth much more than £23
2) The chance of the horse coming 2nd is going to be a bit less than the chance of it coming first (especially Dundonnell)
3) Hills prices aren't best prices, though they should be close enough with the best price guarantee.  

I am fairly confident these bets are profitable though.

[tikay]

If we fancy a spot of Saturday trading I can't believe Declaration Of War won't drift from 3.35 in the Lockinge (3.50 Newbury) tomorrow.

He's never run at higher than Group 3 level and he's never run on fast turf. Also he stays further and these are proven milers he's taking on. The potential is there but is's another case of wrong price because he's trained by A. O'Brien.

There's the possibility of a chunky drift and not much down side imo. Lay £200 @ 3.35 with a view to greening out tomorrow.

Spreadsheet detritus incoming........

We are ON, God help me. Hold my hand please, this could go spectacularly tits up if I get it wrong.

You do realise that I fall asleep every afternoon, right? Be just my luck to do a Blatch today.

We have LAID Declaration of War, £200 @ 3.25. (Note, 3.25, NOT 3.35).

Lay £200 @ 3.25, Betfair, Declaration of War, 3.35 Newbury.

ON




Lay (Bet Against)
 
Backer's odds
 
Backer's stake
 
Your liability
 
15:50 Newbury

Declaration Of War WIN

3.25

£200.00

£450.00
 
Ref: 27187667832M Matched: 10:42 18-May-13

[tikay]

Can I green out yet?

[TightEnd]

Eurovision tonight

The thread has

£10 Moldova 200-1

£20 Sweden 12-1

£10 Netherlands 10-1


Denmark is odders.

Can Chompy explain his current thinking, such as it is, on the above and the contest please?

Are there any match bets, or other oddieites, that should be looked at?

[OverTheBorder]

Had a good look at hearts Aberdeen today, Aberdeen are 13/10 at home bv. Few factors:

Aberdeen are in better form
Aberdeen higher in league
Aberdeen win needed to secure 8th spot
Aberdeen at home
Last game easy 2-0 home win beside sides
Most interestingly hearts financial problems means they are likely to get a penalty of 1/3rd of this seasons points next season. So winning may actually cost a point next season.

I would have this evens and rec £20 on aberdeen

[Doobs]

Coral got same £25 free bet if second job that WH has.

I didnt understand the maths of the bet the first time, but does having additional opportunities help?

Should put £25 on Dundonnell in the 3.30.  They are only doing 3 races and the other 2 races on offer aren't so good.

Got to dash.

[tikay]

Eurovision tonight

The thread has

£10 Moldova 200-1

£20 Sweden 12-1

£10 Netherlands 10-1


Denmark is odders.

Can Chompy explain his current thinking, such as it is, on the above and the contest please?

Are there any match bets, or other oddieites, that should be looked at?

We also have two from the Milkman.

From memory.....

£4 @ 7/4, Paddy Power, UK to finish 21st or lower.

£20 @ 13/8, same bet, Corals. 

£1,000,000 @ 100/1 that I watch that shite.

[tikay]

Had a good look at hearts Aberdeen today, Aberdeen are 13/10 at home bv. Few factors:

Aberdeen are in better form
Aberdeen higher in league
Aberdeen win needed to secure 8th spot
Aberdeen at home
Last game easy 2-0 home win beside sides
Most interestingly hearts financial problems means they are likely to get a penalty of 1/3rd of this seasons points next season. So winning may actually cost a point next season.

I would have this evens and rec £20 on aberdeen

Good stuff OTB, thanks.

Are all those facts - correct as they are - not in the price already?