Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

We should spend some of the profits Tighty has made us recently on a new wager...

 Presburg 4.10 Brighton. I'd happily take 7/1, probably start 5/1 or less. Stan James are 10/1.

 Win only.

 No need to fall out, hope I didn't sound patronising, it wasn't my intention.

Cheers Neil, I'm on and I've just chucked you £10 on this  as well Tikay.

Ooh, top man, thanks Marky.

I owe you for two bets now, I think? Remind me how much, via PM if need be, & I'll ship it across.

So.....

Fred has £10 @ 10/1, Presburg, 4.10 Brighton

ON

If you're going to Vegas we can sort it out there

Fred moves markets, Sid now goes 5/1 Presburg!

[atdc21]

LOL  ok thanks , will have to do it later now tho as something just come up.
I really am sh1te at getting these computers to do things, ......but if you ever need a truck engine rebuilt, let me know

[tikay]

LOL  ok thanks , will have to do it later now tho as something just come up.
I really am sh1te at getting these computers to do things, ......but if you ever need a truck engine rebuilt, let me know

I'm your man when it comes to computers & software. Trust me.

Mere learned everything he knows from me.

[BigAdz]

This must be why Tumblr is worth $1.1bn

http://eaglesthatlooklikearsenewenger.tumblr.com/

Classic

[TightEnd]

Pune India Warriors closed down. Bought for $333m, in dispute with the BCCI of non payment of sponsorship fees due to PWI....

Not the greatest IPL for the BCCI really with more spot fixing, a team closing etc


Meanwhile Tendulkar left out for Mumbai..game starts at 3.30pm on Ch 120

[Junior Senior]

Missed price on presburg. Damn 3G in the work bogs!

[exstream]

Weeeee Pressburg

[BigAdz]

Scccchting!

[Horneris]

Good tip Channing

[horseplayer]

well done neil

[TightEnd]

Brilliant, went off at half the tipped price too

[Chompy]

.

[Tal]

Bet he laid it off in-running

 

[horseplayer]

.

not that pic again!

[MereNovice]

When I back on Betfair I will often green out at what I consider to be (near to) the correct price.
Am I pissing equity up against the wall?

Let's assume that I have placed two bets of £50 at 2/1 for a total outlay of £100. Later the opportunity arises to lay each of those bets at evens which I consider to be about the right price.

There are four possible outcomes for these bets which would all be equally likely (at the time of the lay opportunity) given that the true price is evens.

The nett profit (after 5% commission) will be:

              No hedge                     Hedge   
       No comm.   5% comm.   No comm.   5% comm.
ww        200           190             100        95
ll       -100             -100               0          0
wl        50             45                 50         45
lw       50            45                  50            45
            
total        200   180             200      185


Obviously this only occurs because of the commission.
Have I got this wrong?


Apologies for the formatting of the table; I am unable to master the ability to format things nicely on Blonde.