Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

While Mr Channing is about.

Just noticed today that Secret Gesture is available to lay at circa 5/2.

I got on at 25s.

Being mindful of your comments yesterday, I need clarification.

I would never back this horse at 5/2, ie, I no longer think its value. I also can't see another horse that I consider A, the winner , or B, value.

Should I green out, or let it run it's course?

Depends. What made you back it in the first place?

You

[Tal]

Ponomariov has just drawn, so our bet on him to win loses, if that makes sense.

1.4 shots are allowed to happen, I suppose.

[The Camel]

While Mr Channing is about.

Just noticed today that Secret Gesture is available to lay at circa 5/2.

I got on at 25s.

Being mindful of your comments yesterday, I need clarification.

I would never back this horse at 5/2, ie, I no longer think its value. I also can't see another horse that I consider A, the winner , or B, value.

Should I green out, or let it run it's course?

Depends. What made you back it in the first place?

You

Really, if you think it's a terrible priice and a stone bonking lay, you should switch your position so you win £0 if it wins and get the lot if its beat.

Say you've had £10 @ 25/1, now you should lay £100 @ 3.5

[BigAdz]

While Mr Channing is about.

Just noticed today that Secret Gesture is available to lay at circa 5/2.

I got on at 25s.

Being mindful of your comments yesterday, I need clarification.

I would never back this horse at 5/2, ie, I no longer think its value. I also can't see another horse that I consider A, the winner , or B, value.

Should I green out, or let it run it's course?

Depends. What made you back it in the first place?

You

Really, if you think it's a terrible priice and a stone bonking lay, you should switch your position so you win £0 if it wins and get the lot if its beat.

Say you've had £10 @ 25/1, now you should lay £100 @ 3.5

No doubt someone will tie me up in knots, but...

I cant see what else is going to win, but based on what I have seen, the fact the ground will be different to anything she has run on(I expect), the track, etc, I wouldn't back it at 5/2. If it was a fresh race to me, at these prices, I wouldn't have a bet.Make sense?
In this case, and trying to make logical sense of my own thoughts, I think I should lay enough to get my stake back and let the horse run for nothing?

[Doobs]

a reminder you have a 3rd £25 free bet to use by the 25th.

Thanks Rich.

Was that with Wm Hill?

So we need a long-priced winner. Should be easy enough then.......

Have had my eye on epsomweather.co.uk, though it seems to be down.  Also hoping William Hill to put up a market in the Irish 1000 Guineas on Sunday

Given we already have Ocovango for the Arc and I have been waiting for the weather on that, and the horse I was waiting on in the Irish 1000 isn't a great price, I am going to nick one of horseplayer's tips.

He says it should be shorter, and it is best price at Hills (amongst others), and is a good price for a free bet (10/1)

So lets go with this £25 on the nose on the following

4.20 Southwell Caledonia Prince 10/1

Cheers

Now down to 8/1.

Still a bet?

Ignore that, I have an appointment upstairs & need to get offline, so I've done it, thanks Doobs.

We have £25 @ 8/1, Wm Hill, Caledonia Prince, 4.25 Southwell. FREE BET

ON

22 May 2013 - 4:20 Southwell - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!

Tip ItCaledonia Prince @ 8/1

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £200.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000436/FFree bet redeemed

It can't be terrible, it is only just lower than Betfair and only Stan James still at 10.

  In better news, epsomweather.co.uk is back.  No rain in the last week or so, but some forecast.

[Doobs]

http://www.abola.pt/nnh/ver.aspx?id=403633

according to the above pereira has signed a pre contract with everton

best priced 5-1 seems to be a sea of blue on oddschecker this morning

Now best price 5/2

[horseplayer]

http://www.abola.pt/nnh/ver.aspx?id=403633

according to the above pereira has signed a pre contract with everton

best priced 5-1 seems to be a sea of blue on oddschecker this morning

Now best price 5/2

chalk it down in the value loser draw that currently seems full up at my place

[tikay]

While Mr Channing is about.

Just noticed today that Secret Gesture is available to lay at circa 5/2.

I got on at 25s.

Being mindful of your comments yesterday, I need clarification.

I would never back this horse at 5/2, ie, I no longer think its value. I also can't see another horse that I consider A, the winner , or B, value.

Should I green out, or let it run it's course?

Depends. What made you back it in the first place?

Groan. How did I just know you'd ask that?

 

[Eso Kral]

bet suggestion

over 4 cards @ 33/20 with ladbrokes in the champions league final with ladbrokes

suggest £44

reasoning to follow tonight/later

Haha incred

I was going to put the exact same bet up and myself and Dubai have been waiting for other prices since we knew who the ref was earlier this week and 30mins before HP put up this bet have placed a big bet by my standards on it as I'm sure he would confirm.

Here are his season stats http://www.soccerway.com/referees/nicola-rizzoli/44754/


I would also recc 20% so £8 of the bet on "Sending off in match" @ 7/2 Hills

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bor-dortmund-v-bayern-munich/sending-off-in-match

reasoning being this ref has sent off 9 players this season in 26 games and also the price seems very generic plus the other way of playing the bookings market was over 45 bookings points with Billy Hills at 11/8 (next best price) but by playing the sending off market for £8 we book a good win when the make up is 4 yellow+ and a red card and lose a small amount of equity if there are 5 yellows and no reds.

Recc £8 Sending off @ 7/2

Not sure if you missed this Tikay but Mr S tells me that after we have been waiting for prices to get on since the start of the week this was a headline tip in today's RP

[tikay]

bet suggestion

over 4 cards @ 33/20 with ladbrokes in the champions league final with ladbrokes

suggest £44

reasoning to follow tonight/later

Haha incred

I was going to put the exact same bet up and myself and Dubai have been waiting for other prices since we knew who the ref was earlier this week and 30mins before HP put up this bet have placed a big bet by my standards on it as I'm sure he would confirm.

Here are his season stats http://www.soccerway.com/referees/nicola-rizzoli/44754/


I would also recc 20% so £8 of the bet on "Sending off in match" @ 7/2 Hills

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bor-dortmund-v-bayern-munich/sending-off-in-match

reasoning being this ref has sent off 9 players this season in 26 games and also the price seems very generic plus the other way of playing the bookings market was over 45 bookings points with Billy Hills at 11/8 (next best price) but by playing the sending off market for £8 we book a good win when the make up is 4 yellow+ and a red card and lose a small amount of equity if there are 5 yellows and no reds.

Recc £8 Sending off @ 7/2

Not sure if you missed this Tikay but Mr S tells me that after we have been waiting for prices to get on since the start of the week this was a headline tip in today's RP

Ooh, well reminded. I had forgotten it, but safely aboard now, thanks both to you, & Mr Jamie Shallow.

£8 @ 7/2, Wm Hill, Red Card in CL Final, Saturday.

ON

25 May 2013 - Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich - Red Card In The Match?

Tip It

Yes @ 7/2

Stake : £8.00


Estimated Returns : £

36.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000439/F

[tikay]

Today we have Hants V Lancs live on Sky in a YB40  day night match.

I'm interested in the total sixes market

 The weather is set fair.

Hants have a strong in-form batting line up.They go hard from the top. With Dimi back from IPL and Wheater at 8, it means the top 8 are well able of clearing the ropes. Lancs should have Katich back, and are a quality side.
Not much of the YB40 season to go on so far at the Ageas Bowl, but in its last YB40 match, there were 12 sixes. (6 for each team, Hants batting second) I wasn't there, but interestingly the commentary said the boundaries were shorter than "normal", which I'm sure is to help the home team's batters, as well as provide more "entertainment".
Also new fielding restrictions this year mean only 4 fielders outside the circle, ...surely this will encourage batsman more to go over the top of the infield.
Hants are favourites, and like to chase......so the danger to the over sixes market is Hants bowl well, restrict Lancs to a below par score and then pace a steady innings with few sixes. However I think Lancs can post a decent score against the Hants bowling, should they bat first.

Any thoughts from Freds cricket followers?

 I see only 2 firms priced up sixes atm on oddschecker:  Sky and Hills +5.5  at 5/6. I recommend £40.

Woke up, cleared e-Mails, turned telly on just as the first six sailed over the boundary.

Lancashire 78/2 after 17 overs, one x 6 so far.

[tikay]

116/2, 21 overs, TWO sixes now.

[The Camel]

While Mr Channing is about.

Just noticed today that Secret Gesture is available to lay at circa 5/2.

I got on at 25s.

Being mindful of your comments yesterday, I need clarification.

I would never back this horse at 5/2, ie, I no longer think its value. I also can't see another horse that I consider A, the winner , or B, value.

Should I green out, or let it run it's course?

Depends. What made you back it in the first place?

You

Really, if you think it's a terrible priice and a stone bonking lay, you should switch your position so you win £0 if it wins and get the lot if its beat.

Say you've had £10 @ 25/1, now you should lay £100 @ 3.5

No doubt someone will tie me up in knots, but...

I cant see what else is going to win, but based on what I have seen, the fact the ground will be different to anything she has run on(I expect), the track, etc, I wouldn't back it at 5/2. If it was a fresh race to me, at these prices, I wouldn't have a bet.Make sense?
In this case, and trying to make logical sense of my own thoughts, I think I should lay enough to get my stake back and let the horse run for nothing?

What price WOULD you back it at?

[BigAdz]

When I looked I expected 7/2. That would have been fine. Anything lower seemed skinny


NB. I have given myself a bloody good talking to and will play golf next Friday afternoon.

[MereNovice]

116/2, 21 overs, TWO sixes now.

Lancashire finished on 244/6  with FOUR sixes.

Fred requires two more sixes.