Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

This goes back to the heads or tails example I gave the other day, TMar.

If someone offers 2/1 on heads, you bet. If they offer 1/2 on heads, you lay.

If you've bet 100 @2/1 when the bookie switches to 1/2, you don't just close your position; you press and take a second lot of value, capitalising on the second error.

If instead of 1/2, the bookie offered Even money, closing your bet and locking up your profit is fine, as is letting your money ride.

This though is not subjective in itself.

We know for sure that heads=ev and tails is ev, so the maths is perfect.

Unless we ran this race an eternal number of times we don't know that 5/2 is the "real" correct price. If that makes any sense whatsoever?!

Absolutely. We can only bet on incomplete information, making educated guesses and taking calculated risks.

The wooliness of our assessment of the "true" price must be a factor in both bet sizing and betting in the first place.

I'm a frugal sort, so I'd probably only bet on something for "value" if I believed the whole range of wooliness was at the advertised price or better.

[Doobs]

The Coronation Cup next week

St Nicholas Abbey has won the last two, and goes for the treble

4/5 currently

If he makes the start, what possibly beats him?


12 are in the race, and it usually cuts up to 5 or 6 runners

- O'Brien has  Chamonix, El Salvador, Ernest Hemingway and Imperial Monarch.

- Dandino whose main target in 2013 is the Melbourne Cup.

"We are considering the Coronation Cup for Dandino. The owners have told me to leave him in the race and we will just monitor the ground because he is a fast-ground horse," said Botti.

- 2011 Melbourne Cup victor Dunaden, trained in France by Mikel Delzangles, and Very Nice Name, who has been left in by Qatari-based Alban de Mieulle and was last seen when third behind St Nicholas Abbey at Meydan.

The list of possibles is completed by 2012 Derby second Main Sequence, Chapter Seven, Joshua Tree and Sir Graham Wade.

last time out "Aidan O’Brien’s St Nicholas Abbey broke the track record in going one place better than 12 months ago in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan."

4/5 putting the £ away on it for a week?

It'll start shorter, won't it?

Dunaden is rated 3 pounds higher by Timeform.  Though I wouldn't make it favourite, his presence makes St Nicholas Abbey the price he is?  5/1 each way paying 3 places appeals if we could be sure he runs.  He goes on any ground too.

[Jamier-Host]

Thought it was an excellent post, got very excited and then saw it was basically a non existent market with a fictious bookie pretending to lay fictious people fictious bets

Missed this yesterday - they took the market down right?

[Doobs]

Thought it was an excellent post, got very excited and then saw it was basically a non existent market with a fictious bookie pretending to lay fictious people fictious bets

Missed this yesterday - they took the market down right?

Was still there this morning, but gone now.  You can still bet the unders on the 180s in several places.

[tikay]

The Coronation Cup next week

St Nicholas Abbey has won the last two, and goes for the treble

4/5 currently

If he makes the start, what possibly beats him?


12 are in the race, and it usually cuts up to 5 or 6 runners

- O'Brien has  Chamonix, El Salvador, Ernest Hemingway and Imperial Monarch.

- Dandino whose main target in 2013 is the Melbourne Cup.

"We are considering the Coronation Cup for Dandino. The owners have told me to leave him in the race and we will just monitor the ground because he is a fast-ground horse," said Botti.

- 2011 Melbourne Cup victor Dunaden, trained in France by Mikel Delzangles, and Very Nice Name, who has been left in by Qatari-based Alban de Mieulle and was last seen when third behind St Nicholas Abbey at Meydan.

The list of possibles is completed by 2012 Derby second Main Sequence, Chapter Seven, Joshua Tree and Sir Graham Wade.

last time out "Aidan O’Brien’s St Nicholas Abbey broke the track record in going one place better than 12 months ago in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan."

4/5 putting the £ away on it for a week?

It'll start shorter, won't it?

Thanks Rich.

I was curious where you were going with that, as the form for the is pretty exposed for the most part, but I got there in the end - we expect it to start shorter.

So would that mean we had....

a) Value?

or....

b) An opportunity to trade?

[Dubai]

They are not always mutually exclusive

[tikay]

The Coronation Cup next week

St Nicholas Abbey has won the last two, and goes for the treble

4/5 currently

If he makes the start, what possibly beats him?


12 are in the race, and it usually cuts up to 5 or 6 runners

- O'Brien has  Chamonix, El Salvador, Ernest Hemingway and Imperial Monarch.

- Dandino whose main target in 2013 is the Melbourne Cup.

"We are considering the Coronation Cup for Dandino. The owners have told me to leave him in the race and we will just monitor the ground because he is a fast-ground horse," said Botti.

- 2011 Melbourne Cup victor Dunaden, trained in France by Mikel Delzangles, and Very Nice Name, who has been left in by Qatari-based Alban de Mieulle and was last seen when third behind St Nicholas Abbey at Meydan.

The list of possibles is completed by 2012 Derby second Main Sequence, Chapter Seven, Joshua Tree and Sir Graham Wade.

last time out "Aidan O’Brien’s St Nicholas Abbey broke the track record in going one place better than 12 months ago in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan."

4/5 putting the £ away on it for a week?

It'll start shorter, won't it?

Dunaden is rated 3 pounds higher by Timeform.  Though I wouldn't make it favourite, his presence makes St Nicholas Abbey the price he is?  5/1 each way paying 3 places appeals if we could be sure he runs.  He goes on any ground too.

Is it not likely that this race will cut up badly, & we'll be left with 5 or 6 runners? Or are you suggesting we can get one fifth first three now, & so we negate that risk, but it is balanced by the possibility he may not run at all & we do our dough?

[tikay]

They are not always mutually exclusive

Understood, but I'm trying to get my head round this.

It is 4/5 now, it will likely be 4/6 or worse. Does that necessarily mean we have value?

Equally, it is perfectly legit to bet with a view to Trading, in some situations. Is this one of them?

Use short words please.

[TightEnd]

I came at it that SNA was a good thing, or could be. But my knowledge of the others is sketchy....

Even if its not a good thing, as the race cuts up it shortens, I hypothesised

I could be wrong, but it struck me that a two time winner of it at 4/5 was on the generous side.




Anyway, in the IPL the elite panel umpire Asaud Rauf is now under the cosh for fixing.

With the Pune closure, player spot fixing and now an umpire in the dock, the IPL is in danger of disappearing in its current form for 2014 onwards I would contend.

The whole thing, as stands, appears to be an Asian bookies benefit as factors are at play that no random punter can forecast.
 

[horseplayer]

imo st nic will start maybe at best 4-6 (obviously unless more drop out but no reason for them to)

worse case scenario is it rains a lot and the track is a bog in which case he will probably drift a bit

[Doobs]

The Coronation Cup next week

St Nicholas Abbey has won the last two, and goes for the treble

4/5 currently

If he makes the start, what possibly beats him?


12 are in the race, and it usually cuts up to 5 or 6 runners

- O'Brien has  Chamonix, El Salvador, Ernest Hemingway and Imperial Monarch.

- Dandino whose main target in 2013 is the Melbourne Cup.

"We are considering the Coronation Cup for Dandino. The owners have told me to leave him in the race and we will just monitor the ground because he is a fast-ground horse," said Botti.

- 2011 Melbourne Cup victor Dunaden, trained in France by Mikel Delzangles, and Very Nice Name, who has been left in by Qatari-based Alban de Mieulle and was last seen when third behind St Nicholas Abbey at Meydan.

The list of possibles is completed by 2012 Derby second Main Sequence, Chapter Seven, Joshua Tree and Sir Graham Wade.

last time out "Aidan O’Brien’s St Nicholas Abbey broke the track record in going one place better than 12 months ago in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan."

4/5 putting the £ away on it for a week?

It'll start shorter, won't it?

Dunaden is rated 3 pounds higher by Timeform.  Though I wouldn't make it favourite, his presence makes St Nicholas Abbey the price he is?  5/1 each way paying 3 places appeals if we could be sure he runs.  He goes on any ground too.

Is it not likely that this race will cut up badly, & we'll be left with 5 or 6 runners? Or are you suggesting we can get one fifth first three now, & so we negate that risk, but it is balanced by the possibility he may not run at all & we do our dough?

I think it is a good bet regardless because it is top rated and borderline dirty e/w anyway.  If the race does cut up them it obviously gets better.  We get first 3 regardless. I  assume St Nicholas Abbey definitely goes, but can't be so certain on this, horse, but assume he'd be a big drifter on Betfair if he wasn't going.

[tikay]

Thanks guys.

So, we can get 4/5 about what is likely to be 4/6 or worse, all things being equal.

And/or 5/1 about a horse rated 3lbs higher in a dirty ew race which may cut up badly.

Is this a clear either/or?

Excuse the ice-creamery, but we can only back one or the other, or is there a case for backing both?

[Chompy]

Ante-post betting is always risky. I don't have any strong opinions on this race but nothing is set in stone a week in advance.

[Marky147]

Martinez won't have a decision until next week, Whelan says their talks today were very constructive. General feeling on the fan forums is that They were trying to push Everton into making a decision, but that hasn't worked.

Portuguese websites are still convinced that it's Pereira, supposedly abola.pt are generally quite solid with their football news.  and one of the Everton fans is sure that it was they who got AVB to Spurs right.


<3 next manager markets

[TightEnd]

Thanks guys.

So, we can get 4/5 about what is likely to be 4/6 or worse, all things being equal.

And/or 5/1 about a horse rated 3lbs higher in a dirty ew race which may cut up badly.

Is this a clear either/or?

Excuse the ice-creamery, but we can only back one or the other, or is there a case for backing both?

I am beginning to regret reading the article I did this morning....

Leave St Nic, I think.