Tips for Tikay

[T_Mar]

This goes back to the heads or tails example I gave the other day, TMar.

If someone offers 2/1 on heads, you bet. If they offer 1/2 on heads, you lay.

If you've bet 100 @2/1 when the bookie switches to 1/2, you don't just close your position; you press and take a second lot of value, capitalising on the second error.

If instead of 1/2, the bookie offered Even money, closing your bet and locking up your profit is fine, as is letting your money ride.

I might be missing tricks here, but I still dont see why you cant treat the bets seperately. Suppose your 'staking plan' is 1-5 pts, you have had 2pts win @ 25/1, now your slection is 5/2 and you think its more like a 7/2 shot, making it a +EV lay - why cant you just make the bet within your normal staking plan as if you hadn't had the bet at 25/1 in the first place?

Even if you think the lay is a MAX bet, you can just stick within your staking plan, and not reverse your position completely?

[TightEnd]

Martinez won't have a decision until next week, Whelan says their talks today were very constructive. General feeling on the fan forums is that They were trying to push Everton into making a decision, but that hasn't worked.

Portuguese websites are still convinced that it's Pereira, supposedly abola.pt are generally quite solid with their football news.  and one of the Everton fans is sure that it was they who got AVB to Spurs right.


<3 next manager markets

What are you hearing on Wolves?

Pulis does appear a very logical runner in that, if interested?

[BigAdz]

Martinez won't have a decision until next week, Whelan says their talks today were very constructive. General feeling on the fan forums is that They were trying to push Everton into making a decision, but that hasn't worked.

Portuguese websites are still convinced that it's Pereira, supposedly abola.pt are generally quite solid with their football news.  and one of the Everton fans is sure that it was they who got AVB to Spurs right.


<3 next manager markets

I looked on BF last nite and it was 1.08ish prices on the favs in all the big managerial markets

[Karabiner]

The Pure Silk LPGA event in the Bahamas has been shortened from 72 holes to 54 holes, with play hopefully starting tomorrow now after nearly a foot of rain fell on the course yesterday.

Ms.Shin in action.

[tikay]

Thanks guys.

So, we can get 4/5 about what is likely to be 4/6 or worse, all things being equal.

And/or 5/1 about a horse rated 3lbs higher in a dirty ew race which may cut up badly.

Is this a clear either/or?

Excuse the ice-creamery, but we can only back one or the other, or is there a case for backing both?

I am beginning to regret reading the article I did this morning....

Leave St Nic, I think.
 

Why, & why?

I think the debate, the pros & cons, rather interesting, & for me, educational.

Just trying to rationalise it all.

[tikay]

The Pure Silk LPGA event in the Bahamas has been shortened from 72 holes to 54 holes, with play hopefully starting tomorrow now after nearly a foot of rain fell on the course yesterday.

Ms.Shin in action.

How much?

Seriously?

Wow.

[TightEnd]

Thanks guys.

So, we can get 4/5 about what is likely to be 4/6 or worse, all things being equal.

And/or 5/1 about a horse rated 3lbs higher in a dirty ew race which may cut up badly.

Is this a clear either/or?

Excuse the ice-creamery, but we can only back one or the other, or is there a case for backing both?

I am beginning to regret reading the article I did this morning....

Leave St Nic, I think.
 

Why, & why?

I think the debate, the pros & cons, rather interesting, & for me, educational.

Just trying to rationalise it all.

I'm not criticising the debate, just it has left me feeling a bit confused. I thought it was a 1/2 shot I suppose and couldn't find a single commentator who had anything to oppose it

Then Doobs finds one straight away :-)

[Tal]

This goes back to the heads or tails example I gave the other day, TMar.

If someone offers 2/1 on heads, you bet. If they offer 1/2 on heads, you lay.

If you've bet 100 @2/1 when the bookie switches to 1/2, you don't just close your position; you press and take a second lot of value, capitalising on the second error.

If instead of 1/2, the bookie offered Even money, closing your bet and locking up your profit is fine, as is letting your money ride.

I might be missing tricks here, but I still dont see why you cant treat the bets seperately. Suppose your 'staking plan' is 1-5 pts, you have had 2pts win @ 25/1, now your slection is 5/2 and you think its more like a 7/2 shot, making it a +EV lay - why cant you just make the bet within your normal staking plan as if you hadn't had the bet at 25/1 in the first place?

Even if you think the lay is a MAX bet, you can just stick within your staking plan, and not reverse your position completely?

That's absolutely fine and means you win twice.

I believe - cue calls to the contrary - that my argument is for the optimal strategy.

In simplistic terms, you've flopped quads and decide to bet one big blind on the river. It makes you money but you could get more bang for your buck

[Karabiner]

The Pure Silk LPGA event in the Bahamas has been shortened from 72 holes to 54 holes, with play hopefully starting tomorrow now after nearly a foot of rain fell on the course yesterday.

Ms.Shin in action.

How much?

Seriously?

Wow.

According to this.

www.lpga.com/golf/news/2013/5/bahamas-pretournament-wednesday-notes-and-interviews.aspx

[tikay]

Thanks guys.

So, we can get 4/5 about what is likely to be 4/6 or worse, all things being equal.

And/or 5/1 about a horse rated 3lbs higher in a dirty ew race which may cut up badly.

Is this a clear either/or?

Excuse the ice-creamery, but we can only back one or the other, or is there a case for backing both?

I am beginning to regret reading the article I did this morning....

Leave St Nic, I think.
  

Why, & why?

I think the debate, the pros & cons, rather interesting, & for me, educational.

Just trying to rationalise it all.

I'm not criticising the debate, just it has left me feeling a bit confused. I thought it was a 1/2 shot I suppose and couldn't find a single commentator who had anything to oppose it

Then Doobs finds one straight away :-)

You can always rely on accountants and actuaries to paddle their own canoe up backwaters you least expect, often with surprisingly pleasing results.

[Marky147]

Martinez won't have a decision until next week, Whelan says their talks today were very constructive. General feeling on the fan forums is that They were trying to push Everton into making a decision, but that hasn't worked.

Portuguese websites are still convinced that it's Pereira, supposedly abola.pt are generally quite solid with their football news.  and one of the Everton fans is sure that it was they who got AVB to Spurs right.


<3 next manager markets

What are you hearing on Wolves?

Pulis does appear a very logical runner in that, if interested?

Steve Davis said a while back that he wouldn't be applying for the job, however, he didn't say that he wouldn't go and he is a lifelong Wolves fan. Not sure if he has been interviewed, or approached, but other than that haven't found much out.

Moxey is back now, so I would expect an appointment sooner rather than later. Coyle I would think is a non runner, mainly due to the fact he wants to bring his whole firm in wherever he goes. Parkinson has just signed a 3 year deal at Bradford, so that is him out of the running, and that's about all I've been able to gather thus far.

I would hope that it's between Davis, Mclaren and Jackett. Ideally Jackett to ship the job, but that's purely selfish as he is the biggest winner

[Marky147]

Martinez won't have a decision until next week, Whelan says their talks today were very constructive. General feeling on the fan forums is that They were trying to push Everton into making a decision, but that hasn't worked.

Portuguese websites are still convinced that it's Pereira, supposedly abola.pt are generally quite solid with their football news.  and one of the Everton fans is sure that it was they who got AVB to Spurs right.


<3 next manager markets

I looked on BF last nite and it was 1.08ish prices on the favs in all the big managerial markets

They're saying Pellegrini is done, Mourinho would appear to be and Ancelotti all but...

Wolves and Everton are the only ones we're interested in

[Doobs]

Thanks guys.

So, we can get 4/5 about what is likely to be 4/6 or worse, all things being equal.

And/or 5/1 about a horse rated 3lbs higher in a dirty ew race which may cut up badly.

Is this a clear either/or?

Excuse the ice-creamery, but we can only back one or the other, or is there a case for backing both?

I am beginning to regret reading the article I did this morning....

Leave St Nic, I think.
 

Why, & why?

I think the debate, the pros & cons, rather interesting, & for me, educational.

Just trying to rationalise it all.

I'm not criticising the debate, just it has left me feeling a bit confused. I thought it was a 1/2 shot I suppose and couldn't find a single commentator who had anything to oppose it

Then Doobs finds one straight away :-)

I don't think the bet is bad, I think it is more likely to be shorter than longer.  I think the race is quite likely to cut up, just think that is more likely to favour my bet than yours.  I think we could probably do both and hope for a 4 runner race!

[DungBeetle]

Don't think we do the spreads, but Sporting Index have an interesting special on the Watford v Palace game.  It's called "AlphaBet" which is the cummulative position in the alphabet of each goalscorer (eg Abdi = 1, Chalobah = 3 etc)

I think it is a buy at 31 because

A) It will be a high scoring game I think
B) Vydra is back in form
C) Palace have Zaha, Williams and Wilbraham.

Thoughts?

[Snowball]

Tv guy at the Dubai Darts says tge players have had a practise and he's yet to see a 180.
Whitlock says he will throw his Darts a little harder to make sure they go in lol