Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Our O'Brien (No Classic Winners in 2013) bet.

Talk to me about Magician.........and Dawn Approach.

What we wanna know?

[TightEnd]

Deadline to enter the WSOP Fantasy League is Wednesday

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61015.msg1780177#new

Free to enter, £150 MTT seat to the winner


Sorry for the spam, but more entries needed to keep Mere Novice occupied through the summer....

[Eso Kral]

OVERNIGHT UFC RESULTS

We had two UFC bets overnight.

We were on Junior dos Santos to beat Mark Hunt in the first round, £25 @ 11/5.

The fight report states.......

It ended violently and decisively, at the end of Junior dos Santos' fists and knees and, ultimately his foot.

The former UFC heavyweight champion worked his way through Hunt's defense and finally finished him after a spinning heel kick at 4:18 of the third round.

So, right result, wrong round.

We were also on Cerrone to beat Noons "by decision". £20 @ 15/8.

Fight report......

Cerrone returned to his winning ways, thrashing Noons in a UFC 160 unanimous decision by scores of 30-27, 30-27 and 30-26.

Winner!

Well done Scott, love your UFC stuff.

I MAY owe someone - Marky or Walsall? for part of one of those two bets, as I think I got restricted. Remind me if I owe you please.

Only just logged on after a weekend of Pokers in Sheffield and Nottingham and £20 loser on the first round Ko is balanced and some by the £15 @ 15/8  on Cerone so I owe Fred £8.12.

Will send pm as we have other business

[tikay]

Our O'Brien (No Classic Winners in 2013) bet.

Talk to me about Magician.........and Dawn Approach.

What we wanna know?

The chap in The Times was very effusive about Magician who, he said, ran very well at the weekend, & will now take his chance at Epsom.

Mr O'Brien seems determined to sink our bet.

Yoir view is?........

[tikay]

OVERNIGHT UFC RESULTS

We had two UFC bets overnight.

We were on Junior dos Santos to beat Mark Hunt in the first round, £25 @ 11/5.

The fight report states.......

It ended violently and decisively, at the end of Junior dos Santos' fists and knees and, ultimately his foot.

The former UFC heavyweight champion worked his way through Hunt's defense and finally finished him after a spinning heel kick at 4:18 of the third round.

So, right result, wrong round.

We were also on Cerrone to beat Noons "by decision". £20 @ 15/8.

Fight report......

Cerrone returned to his winning ways, thrashing Noons in a UFC 160 unanimous decision by scores of 30-27, 30-27 and 30-26.

Winner!

Well done Scott, love your UFC stuff.

I MAY owe someone - Marky or Walsall? for part of one of those two bets, as I think I got restricted. Remind me if I owe you please.

Only just logged on after a weekend of Pokers in Sheffield and Nottingham and £20 loser on the first round Ko is balanced and some by the £15 @ 15/8  on Cerone so I owe Fred £8.12.

Will send pm as we have other business

Good stuff Walsall bloke.

Send the £8.12 to the usual Charity please.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

A bad tennis bet yesterday but when I went to the bookies in the afternoon and read the Racing Post I saw that their tennis bod had recommended the exact same bet so it can't have been truly awful. However I would like to give a gentle nudge to Mr Tightend about the forthcoming Lions tour. I feel we should place the series bet before next Saturday when the tour begins. I believe he likes Australia to win 2-1, I am happier with just Australia to win so a bit of discussion may be needed.

Australia 11/8 Lions 8/11, roughly

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/series-winner

I think the Aussies will have too much gas out wide for the Lions, assuming they obtain parity up front

Given that 2-1 Australia is only a 5-2 shot,

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/series-correct-score

I do think it should be 2-1 either way, can't see either team winning 3-0


I am happy to go with your thoughts Ernie.


I am still big on the Welsh players market, over 7.5 at Evens

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/number-of-starting-welsh-players

Sitting here today I have

Warburton
Halfpenny
North
Phillips
Faletau
Adam Jones
Alun Wyn Jones
Hibbard

as good things for the Test team

and can make cases for Tipuric, Cuthbert, Jamie Roberts, Gethin Jenkins too

7.5 strikes me as on the low side

Obviously injuries, form etc are the usual risks

Your thoughts on that one Hector?

Thanks Rich.

"Over 7.5 Welsh players at Evens".

Best I can see is 1.83?

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/number-of-starting-welsh-players

Also, how does that bet work? Is it JUST the first game?

[hector62]

I think Roberts will start but I have doubts over Falateau as I have a bit of man love for Heaslip who seems to have discovered some form after the 6 nations. As for Phillips we are going to be in bad shape if he is the test scrum half, as his service is so poor, but not sure we have a viable alternative. Regarding the total number of Welshies in the test side I think that it will be either 7, or 8.

I am currently looking at the top Lions test try scorer market and think I have found a decent e/w bet.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

A bad tennis bet yesterday but when I went to the bookies in the afternoon and read the Racing Post I saw that their tennis bod had recommended the exact same bet so it can't have been truly awful. However I would like to give a gentle nudge to Mr Tightend about the forthcoming Lions tour. I feel we should place the series bet before next Saturday when the tour begins. I believe he likes Australia to win 2-1, I am happier with just Australia to win so a bit of discussion may be needed.

Australia 11/8 Lions 8/11, roughly

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/series-winner

I think the Aussies will have too much gas out wide for the Lions, assuming they obtain parity up front

Given that 2-1 Australia is only a 5-2 shot,

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/series-correct-score

I do think it should be 2-1 either way, can't see either team winning 3-0


I am happy to go with your thoughts Ernie.


I am still big on the Welsh players market, over 7.5 at Evens

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/number-of-starting-welsh-players

Sitting here today I have

Warburton
Halfpenny
North
Phillips
Faletau
Adam Jones
Alun Wyn Jones
Hibbard

as good things for the Test team

and can make cases for Tipuric, Cuthbert, Jamie Roberts, Gethin Jenkins too

7.5 strikes me as on the low side

Obviously injuries, form etc are the usual risks

Your thoughts on that one Hector?

Personally, I MUCH prefer Australia 11/8, rather than the bigger price for 2-1.

Would you be OK with that?

[tikay]

Lol @ "Ernie".


He was the fastest milkman in the west........

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T.

A bad tennis bet yesterday but when I went to the bookies in the afternoon and read the Racing Post I saw that their tennis bod had recommended the exact same bet so it can't have been truly awful. However I would like to give a gentle nudge to Mr Tightend about the forthcoming Lions tour. I feel we should place the series bet before next Saturday when the tour begins. I believe he likes Australia to win 2-1, I am happier with just Australia to win so a bit of discussion may be needed.

Australia 11/8 Lions 8/11, roughly

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/series-winner

I think the Aussies will have too much gas out wide for the Lions, assuming they obtain parity up front

Given that 2-1 Australia is only a 5-2 shot,

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/series-correct-score

I do think it should be 2-1 either way, can't see either team winning 3-0


I am happy to go with your thoughts Ernie.


I am still big on the Welsh players market, over 7.5 at Evens

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/number-of-starting-welsh-players

Sitting here today I have

Warburton
Halfpenny
North
Phillips
Faletau
Adam Jones
Alun Wyn Jones
Hibbard

as good things for the Test team

and can make cases for Tipuric, Cuthbert, Jamie Roberts, Gethin Jenkins too

7.5 strikes me as on the low side

Obviously injuries, form etc are the usual risks

Your thoughts on that one Hector?

Thanks Rich.

"Over 7.5 Welsh players at Evens".

Best I can see is 1.83?

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/number-of-starting-welsh-players

Also, how does that bet work? Is it JUST the first game?

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/lions-tour-outrights?ev_oc_grp_ids=1228235

First Test Only

Hector reckons 7 or 8 (ie 5/6 each of two is not worth the bet, as the bookie is taking the turn out of an even money bet)

I think 9 or 10 is perfectly possible

5/6 or 1.833 is the best price, as you say, on the link above


Most starters Wales is a 1/5 shot (I am on at 1/4)

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/lions-tour-outrights?ev_oc_grp_ids=1228302

This is buying money, its a 1/10 shot but I am sure you have better uses of £100 or so rather than tieing it up til 23 June at 1/5.

[TightEnd]

As to Australia 11/8 or 2-1 win at 5/2

I agree on 11/8. seems a better risk/reward play.

[Chompy]

Our O'Brien (No Classic Winners in 2013) bet.

Talk to me about Magician.........and Dawn Approach.

What we wanna know?

The chap in The Times was very effusive about Magician who, he said, ran very well at the weekend, & will now take his chance at Epsom.

Mr O'Brien seems determined to sink our bet.

Yoir view is?........

Aidan has a couple of lives ones for the Derby but Dawn Approach is absolute class and I'll be happy enough as long as the ground is good or faster.

Realistically we have Dawn Approach, Ocovango and Chopin running for us next weekend. Otherwise Aidan will win it. We are about a 1/2 shot, Aidan is about 6/4.

In the Oaks we are about a 2/9 shot, Aidan is about 3/1.

All in all AO'B is about an even money shot imo to saddle either the Oaks or Derby winner. Which obv leaves us well on the right side @ 9/2 with just the Leger left after next weekend.

If you wanted so stick some cover bets on, it should be possible. Maybe back his three or four each-way in the Derby. See what's declared later in the week imo.

[Marky147]

Cheers Chompy, can't go wrong with 9/2 about a flip and I've got a bullseye on Moth* @ 4/1 I think it is too...

Thanks to Ed Gascoigne

[BigAdz]

While we are in racing mode Mr Chompy.

Been looking at the Oaks again today, and the only perceived value I can still see is Mr Beckett's other horse Talent. On collateral form lines SG lost its first race to Lady Nouf, but Talent beat her in the Pretty Polly. Talent is 16s still

I know that form lines can lead you up garden paths between 2-3 year olds, and so wondered if your original recommend was based on any inside knowledge of one working x amount better than the other?

[Tal]

Round five of the chess Grand Prix in Thessaloniki starts at 12:

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess

Here are the standings after four rounds:

Click to see full-size image.

The tournament has had a fair few surprises so far. One of the players who has slipped under the radar a little is Vessilin Topalov, who looks like he's been drawing a lot. However, he has been playing progressively more aggressively and taking more risks, in an effort to challenge at the top. He's playing strongly and looks to be in the best shape he's been in since he challenged for the world title.

He plays the cricket-loving Russian, Peter Svidler, who seems capable of anything.

On Saturday, Svidler lost to the bottom seed and Topalov smashed the capitulating Ivanchuk. A rest day can help but I think there is some value in Topalov at 7.3 with the black pieces. The draw at 1.4 is too short (it is entirely correct that the draw is favourite, but the styles of these players and the tournament situation suggests a win from either would enable the tourney to take shape) and Topalov's style of preferring to attack with pieces rather than with pawns tends to mean the game will be decided early (it either ends decisively or it fizzles out to a drawn position).

He's missed a few chances from good positions but he is getting there to miss those chances and I like the look of Topalov in this one.

Recommend £10 on Vessilin Topalov to beat Peter Svidler at 7.3 with Marathon bet.