Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Are we on 3G in the US Golf thing?

Kim and Stenson are in and doing ok.   Rory needs about 5 birdies in a row here...

[tikay]

Think we've just seen the Derby winner.

Is Screen Critic in the thread's portfolio?

No.

[scotty2hatty]

Think we've just seen the Derby winner.

Is Screen Critic in the thread's portfolio?

Was in my Arc portfolio when he finished 2nd :-(

Turned over our best hope Farloe Warhawk there. He and Jaytee Hellcat are our remaining dogs.

[Marky147]

Oioi Holdem Spy looked lively there!

[scotty2hatty]

Oioi Holdem Spy looked lively there!

Get in.

[Marky147]

Oioi Holdem Spy looked lively there!

Get in.

They were bashing each other all over the gaff there too, forgot I was on until I checked to see if I had backed Screen Critic

[tikay]

Oioi Holdem Spy looked lively there!

Are you not in Vegas yet Mark?

Am sat in the Starbucks, next to Golden Nugget, in Fremont Street, having a latte and a cigggei before the Binions PLO8. Life is good, eh?

[Marky147]

Oioi Holdem Spy looked lively there!

Are you not in Vegas yet Mark?

Am sat in the Starbucks, next to Golden Nugget, in Fremont Street, having a latte and a cigggei before the Binions PLO8. Life is good, eh?

Not yet unfortunately, but thanks to Adz life is good yes

I'm flying out on Friday, so will settle in over the weekend and play the same comp at Binions on Sunday. You can keep the cigarette, but you're on for Starbucks at 11am next Sunday if you like?

[Doobs]

Stenson in to +1 after a terrible start on Thursday.  Looking good for Tighty's bet. 

[MereNovice]

At the end of round 3 in the US Open, Phil Mickelson leads on -1.

Fred's horses:

Henrik Stenson   +5 (tied 11th)
Rory McIlroy +8
Sergio Garcia   +11 (top Europeans are currently Luke Donald and Justin Rose on +1).

Amateurs:

Michael Kim   +4
Cheng Tsung Pan +9
Michael Weaver +16
Kevin Phelan +16

Kim would have been even better but finished bogey, double-bogey, bogey.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £540.50

Outstanding Bets £1248.25

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&pli=1#gid=25

A loss of £62 yesterday with four completed bets and four losers

The Lions covered the spread against the Waratahs

Pat Barry lost in 59 seconds in the MMA, we had him to win inthe first round

Skate on and Loughteen Blanco bowed out of the Greyhound Derby


Looking ahead, the excellent Michael Kim top Amateur bet is looking good to make us a profit on the US Open, as he is 5 shots ahead of his nearest challenger

Stenson is tied 11th, e/w paying top 6 having disappointingly faded again on that tough home stretch. An outside chance there, but we haven't had a bad run at 70-1 despite never quite being there to give us a real sweat

Garcia and our pound is a goner.

The McIlroy free bet is now 9 shots behind and again threatenedd for a while two days ago but has faded.

In the cricket the weather forecast for Cardiff today is a touch better, which is disappointing. New Zealand win they top the group and go through but have to be seen as underdogs. We had a trading bet at 13 and they have been at between 7 and 9 since the Australia washout. Whilst that is tradeable for a tiny profit (something like £30 at 8.8 makes a book +9/+18) I think I'd rather take my chances

We need NZ to go through for the Southee bet which has been a surprising and extreme disappontment so far, with McClenaghan being by far the best NZ wicket taker

[TightEnd]

Looking at the Lions Midweek team, and reading the runes, a Test Team looks like


Halfpenny
Cuthbert
Davies
O'Driscoll
North
Sexton
Phillips
Vunipola
Hibbard
Jones
Wyn Jones
O'Connell
Croft
Warburton
Heaslip

9 Wales
4 Ireland
2 England

I am a bit surprised Falatau is in the mid week team, I thought his strengths in the tight spots counterpointed Croft roaming in the open spaces quite nicely

There is a chance Tom Youngs will be picked ahead of Hibbard

Hopefully both wings will be fit

With 9 in that team above we have some leeway

I was slightly surprised to see we have the sum total of £11.25 on >7/5 Welshmen at 4/5 and 5/6, tikay must have been badly restricted. Hardly worth me writing out these teams is it?!

[TightEnd]

With the US Open Leaderboard looking so wide open...

   1   MICKELSON, P.   3:20p       -1   67   72   70       209
   T2   MAHAN, H.   3:20p       E   72   69   69       210
   T2   SCHWARTZEL, C.   3:09p       E   70   71   69       210
   T2   STRICKER, S.   3:09p       E   71   69   70       210
   T5   ROSE, J.   2:58p       +1   71   69   71       211
   T5   DONALD, L.   2:58p       +1   68   72   71       211
   T5   HORSCHEL, B.   2:47p       +1   72   67   72       211
   8   DAY, J.   2:47p       +2   70   74   68       212
   9   FOWLER, R.   2:36p       +3   70   76   67       213
   10   KIM, M.   2:36p       +4   73   70   71       214
   T11   FDEZ-CASTANO, G.   2:25p       +5   71   72   72       215
   T11   STENSON, H.   2:25p       +5   74   68   73       215
   T11   POULTER, I.   2:14p       +5   71   71   73       215
   T11   COLSAERTS, N.   2:14p       +5   69   72   74       215

and the betting market

Mickelson 5/2
Schwartzel 5/1
Stricker 6/1
Mahan 6/1
Rose 9/1
Donald 10/1
Horschel 14/1
Day 16/1
Fowler 33/1
100/1 bar

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/us-open/winner

and it being so difficult to put together something like 66-67 to come from 4-5 behind to win it, is there any value in those prices, or is it just too tough to call?

For example Stricker will par his way round it and great temperament etc etc..if he were to be in the clubhouse at evens you'd take the 6-1 now in a shot would you not?
   

[Doobs]

With the US Open Leaderboard looking so wide open...

   1   MICKELSON, P.   3:20p       -1   67   72   70       209
   T2   MAHAN, H.   3:20p       E   72   69   69       210
   T2   SCHWARTZEL, C.   3:09p       E   70   71   69       210
   T2   STRICKER, S.   3:09p       E   71   69   70       210
   T5   ROSE, J.   2:58p       +1   71   69   71       211
   T5   DONALD, L.   2:58p       +1   68   72   71       211
   T5   HORSCHEL, B.   2:47p       +1   72   67   72       211
   8   DAY, J.   2:47p       +2   70   74   68       212
   9   FOWLER, R.   2:36p       +3   70   76   67       213
   10   KIM, M.   2:36p       +4   73   70   71       214
   T11   FDEZ-CASTANO, G.   2:25p       +5   71   72   72       215
   T11   STENSON, H.   2:25p       +5   74   68   73       215
   T11   POULTER, I.   2:14p       +5   71   71   73       215
   T11   COLSAERTS, N.   2:14p       +5   69   72   74       215

and the betting market

Mickelson 5/2
Schwartzel 5/1
Stricker 6/1
Mahan 6/1
Rose 9/1
Donald 10/1
Horschel 14/1
Day 16/1
Fowler 33/1
100/1 bar

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/us-open/winner

and it being so difficult to put together something like 66-67 to come from 4-5 behind to win it, is there any value in those prices, or is it just too tough to call?

For example Stricker will par his way round it and great temperament etc etc..if he were to be in the clubhouse at evens you'd take the 6-1 now in a shot would you not?
   

Jason Day at 16s e/w with Paddy Power looks value with 4/1 the place.  He impressed me in the masters and looks unlikely to blow up.  I certainly wouldn't lay 4/1 the place anyway.

[TightEnd]

Southee dropped, lol.

NZ win toss and bowl. that's good news with weather around and DL a possibility later