Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Pirelli will strengthen its tyres ahead of this weekend's German Grand Prix to try to avoid a repeat of the six blowouts seen at Silverstone.

The rear tyres' internal belt will be made of Kevlar at the Nurburgring this weekend rather than the usual steel.

Then for the Hungarian Grand Prix at the end of July, Pirelli will revert to its 2012 construction, which is different to that used this year.


This is interesting for us

We have Vettel 21 points clear and a long forgotten 8/1 on Hamilton who is 4th despite a car that struggles on the 2013 tyres

A move back to last years tyres favours Red Bull (fastest team last year, with the best aerodynamic design) and Mercedes (much quicker car this year, no longer hamstrung by tyres) and by contrast affects Lotus and to a lesser extent Ferrari who designed around this years tyres....

I would say, accepting that F1 variables are many and unpredictable as Vettel found this weekend, that a move back to 2012 tyres strengthens our dual hand on our ante post book

We have £60 on Vettel at 11/8 and £10 Hamilton 8/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

Vettel currently trading odds on

Interestingly Horner of Red Bull did PR this morning where he said "Mercedes are very much back in the Championship hunt"

With Rosberg at 33-1 and Hamilton at 16-1 you are getting prices on an each way punt given the Mercedes raw pace, ceteris paribus, without the tyre woes soon

http://www1.skysports.com/formula-1/news/22058/8802728/How-the-tyre-changes-could-tilt-the-title-race

"Furthermore, if the Kevlar-belted tyre that Pirelli wished to introduce from Canada but was prevented from doing, is now introduced, it will have the side effect of reducing rear temperatures by around 10-deg C. This will be of enormous help to Mercedes, giving it a much better chance of maintaining its dazzling qualifying form into the races - possibly to such an extent that we may see one or both of the Mercedes drivers coming back at Vettel in the championship."

Could do much worse than have an £5 e/w pop, 1,2,3 on Rosberg at 33-1 for the F1 WDC

[DungBeetle]

Absolutely.  Quick in qualifying, comfortable in the team and, most importantly, comfortable with winning races now.

Was close to buying Rosberg race wins at 1.7 with the spread firms at £1k a point at start of year, but it fell off my radar for some reason with Watford's exciting end to season.

Definitely second Tighty in putting a small each way position on Nico.

[tikay]

Big Brother. F1. Basketball.

This place is falling apart.

Would not have happened when I was in charge.

£150 on Big Brother? £150?!

[MereNovice]

Which bookies are offering places on the Formula One championship?
The first three I checked aren't.

[Doobs]

Which bookies are offering places on the Formula One championship?
The first three I checked aren't.

I don't think any are, unless it is one of the more ropey ones, I checked all mine last night.  Totesport offering 20/1 Lewis Hamilton seems fine as a win only to me.  He is the quickest of the two, and has the most points.  Doesn't seem much point in trying to eke out value by betting Rosberg.

Beats Betfair too. 

The Betfred site has been down for a few hours, but they should be 20/1 too.

[TightEnd]

Which bookies are offering places on the Formula One championship?
The first three I checked aren't.

I don't think any are, unless it is one of the more ropey ones, I checked all mine last night.  Totesport offering 20/1 Lewis Hamilton seems fine as a win only to me.  He is the quickest of the two, and has the most points.  Doesn't seem much point in trying to eke out value by betting Rosberg.

Beats Betfair too. 

The Betfred site has been down for a few hours, but they should be 20/1 too.

sorry Mere, just checked mine

I wanted Rosberg e/w at 8-1 to finish top 3, as we already have Hamilton.

Hamilton is quicker, fundamentally, but more incident prone and a bit more boom/bust than Rosberg which is why I thought 33-1 was interesting

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £10

Outstanding Bets £1457

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&pli=1#gid=27

One bet yesterday and a loser as BMC disapponted in the time trial. The TdeF is in its infancy of course this year but it throws up remarkable stories. Sky's Geraint Thomas fractured a pelvis in "bus-gate", cannot climb on his bike without help and has since carried on with the race including yesterday's time trial where he took his turns on the front and only fell away in the last kilometre. Simply astonishing to watch

At Wimbledon Lisicki plays Radwanska and Bartoli players Flipper in the semis

Today the men's quarters with Djokovic facing Berdych and Verdasco waiting for Murray

In a largely forgotten and miserably scheduled ODI in the West Indies yesterday, India capitulated to Sri Lanka. Interestingly, over 3,382 ODIs Sri Lanka's 343-1 batting first was the first time a side has batted 50 overs losing only one wicket.

The Lions selected, hugely controversially, their team for the Test decider this weekend. A post on that coming next

We backed a Lady of Leisure who can't live on £10,000 a month to win Big Brother. Presumably such largesse will appeal to the masses watching this.

Its all go, prepare for a battening down of the hatches when the boss makes it back from scooping and ripping in Vegas.

[TightEnd]

In the second test match last weekend

The Lions made not one clean break past the Aussie defence

Ball won in open play Aus 100, Lions 53

Ball won in Opponents 22 Aus 28 Lions 5

Offloads when in possession Aus 9 Lions 3

Passes made Aus 150 Lions 70


Basically the Lions were lucky to only lose by a point, and this is the background to the third test selection which means the Lions need to attack to win, and free up creative players

The Team features 10 Welshmen and 6 changes from Melbourne including the very suprising dropping of Brian O'Driscoll

This is the first time in the 15 years since O'Driscoll was selected for International rugby that has been dropped when fit, and signals the beginning of the end for a talismanic and iconic figure, probably the best Northern Hemisphere rugby player of his generation

It is a huge call by Gatland, one that will define this tour either way.

The Team selected is full of ball carriers, designed to eradicate the flaws of last weekend with the likes of Falatau over Heaslip, Jamie Roberts returning etc picked to get over the gain line, create go forward and give momentum in attack, of which there was none last time

What it appears to lack is any sort of guile whatsoever

Alun Wyn Jones has been selected as Captain and this is another big one. O'Driscoll was the obvious candidate and if you look through the Lions 15 it is short of leaders, talkers on the field etc. Huge call for AWJ to galvanise this team as captain with three days notice

The Australians will not be worried. They will reckon they can tackle Lion battering rams all day and as we have seen in both games so far just have that bit more flair when it matters

Both of these teams would lose by 20-30 points to the All Blacks, by the way

Its going to be close, and in the last 48 hours the Aussies, underdogs in both the first two tests and priced as a pick em after the second test have gone marginal odds on favourites. I think this is probably correct 

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/mens/novelty-specials/a-streaker-to-interrupt-in-the-gentlemen-or-ladies-singles-finals


any thread "members" near the wimbledon area for finals day?

[MereNovice]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/mens/novelty-specials/a-streaker-to-interrupt-in-the-gentlemen-or-ladies-singles-finals


any thread "members" near the wimbledon area for finals day?

Account killer imo

[TightEnd]

David Ferrer is 40's to win Wimbledon, JMDelPotro is 30's yet the former is 1.6 to win their match today.

Not suggesting either outright, but what are your thoughts on this game?

[MereNovice]

David Ferrer is 40's to win Wimbledon, JMDelPotro is 30's yet the former is 1.6 to win their match today.

Not suggesting either outright, but what are your thoughts on this game?

Ferrer is currently 1.71 on Betfair and 1.73 on Boylesports.

I would imagine that the incongruity in pricing is due to Ferrer's impressive record against lower ranked players but poor record against the big four.
Basically he wears down all but the very best.

Ferrer is 6-2 against Del Potro lieftime including beating him in straight sets last year at Wimbledon.
Del Potro is also possibly crocked.
Ferrer has played longer matches but that is generally the case and doesn't seem to affect him.

1.7 on Ferrer seems about right to me but there will be many better judges than me.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/mens/david-ferrer-v-juan-martin-del-potro/winner
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/market?id=1.109947149&exp=e

[horseplayer]

i have not checked but presume it is on head to head records against top ranked?

[DungBeetle]

David Ferrer is 40's to win Wimbledon, JMDelPotro is 30's yet the former is 1.6 to win their match today.

Not suggesting either outright, but what are your thoughts on this game?

This makes sense.  Ferrer has proved himself time and again to be unable to beat the Big 4 in a Slam.  Del Potro has done it before, and can do it again if on song.  However, I'd still favour Ferrer to beat him a sizeable majority of the time if they played 100 times in a QF where Ferrer doesn't have the monkey on his back.

In terms of today's games, I feel the length of match is the way to go.  There isn't a massive difference on the spreads between the djok, Murray and Delpo games.  Either Delpo length is rated too low or the other two are sells.  Assume similar feature in the fixed odds side.

[Dubai]

Interesting. Would you prefer to buy total games or total points?