Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

In the interview with TV's TK, Warney sayed...

"Young Agar is a good left-armed spinner and he'll probably get the nod in the first test ahead of Lyon."

33-1 with Sid and as short as 10-1 elsewhere. Any valoo here?

If you are sure he will, yes, at 33-1

I'd be surprised.

[TightEnd]

I took part in Mike Selvey's Ashes webchat (TMS Commentator, Guardian cricket correspondent)

specifically asked about Swann, Lyon, Agar etc for TfT


A selection of the Q and A

1 If the pitches turn, we have at least three bowlers who are better than Nathan Lyon, and the Australians showed in India that they are not good players of spin (except for Clarke, who is one of the best in the world).

On the other hand, if the pitches are seam-friendly, the Australians have one or two bowlers who are at least as good as ours (except Jimmy).

In view of this, wouldn't it be better to ask for dry surfaces?


    Guardian staff
    MikeSelvey

      I suspect that is the case. Certainly it sounds like it at Trent Bridge. Weather will dictate preparation to a large degree of course. Don't under rate Lyon by the way. He is no Swann but neither is he a mug.


2 Hi Mike, with all the talk of dry pitches, new drainage and this good weather, do you think it is set up for Swann? Any chance of two spinners later in the series?


    Guardian staff
    MikeSelvey

       They would have to be real bare pitches that turn from the start as we had in India for that to happen. England will not deplete the batting to accommodate an extra bowler.

3 Who will be 'top' bowler?

MikeSelvey

Anderson or Swann for England. For Australia it depends who stays fit.

4 tighty asks:

Have you formed any impressions of the young spinner Agar? Might he play ahead of Lyon?

MikeSelvey

Tall, and rhythmical.But made little impression at Worcester which is the first I have seen of him. Won't play instead of Lyon

[Doobs]

Coral have an offer on the 8pm at Windsor.  Money back if placed directly behind favourite up to £50.  They are best priced the 2nd fav, good luck charm at 3/1.  Suggest £50.  Gogo

[TheDazzler]

Coral have an offer on the 8pm at Windsor.  Money back if placed directly behind favourite up to £50.  They are best priced the 2nd fav, good luck charm at 3/1.  Suggest £50.  Gogo

Looks like you missed the boat on this, into 9/4. I can give Fred £20 if you want to settle up via FTP Tikay?

[tikay]

Big "thank you" to Tighty for the Baseball, Leger/Arc, & Cricket Updates & Previews.

Excellent stuff.

[tikay]

The Ashes

Trent Bridge - first test on Wednesday

6 of the last 9 Tests have been won by the side batting first and winning the Toss

Overview

Although the pavilion remains within the architectural parameters of its 1889 foundation there has been no shortage of redevelopment recently, starting with the Radcliffe Road Cricket Centre, which was completed in 1998.

Since then the striking Fox Road stand, which includes a modernistic aircraft-wing roof, has been changed, while the West wing and Parr stand on the Bridgford Road side of the ground was replaced in 2008.

The effect of those alterations is that the ground is now completely encircled by buildings tall enough to cut off any breeze, and there has been a noticeable increase in swing - which was already abundant - since that last development.

As a result Trent Bridge has increasingly become a results ground, and the only two draws to have taken place in the last decade were both rain-affected.

Quotes

England fast bowler James Anderson on the swing prospects: ""All the feedback we're getting from the Notts boys is that it's not swung as much this year. The pitch is very flat and very dry, so we don't really know what to expect until we get there and practise."

Nottinghamshire skipper Chris Read: "I think the square has been changing for the last three or four years. A lot of people have put it down to these new outfields - the one at Trent Bridge is fantastic in terms of absorbing the water from rain, but the theory is that it is also sucking moisture out of the square.

"I certainly think that for the majority of our games this year there has been less moisture in the ground and it's therefore been giving less assistance to all the quick bowlers."

Australia batsman Chris Rogers this week: "The sun's out, you expect nice batting conditions when the overheads are good but it still swung so that's how it's played traditionally, I expect that to be the case. It's hard to know what the wicket is going to do, I think it's going to be pretty good to bat on, but swing is going to be a big threat."

He added: "It looked like there were a few cracks in it. I think they're trying to keep some moisture in it definitely. It's been hot here and I think that's going to dictate how the pitch plays.

"If you look at the wickets next to the pitch they are fairly abrasive already, so everyone realises the ball will scuff up a fair bit. Therefore reverse swing comes into it. Spin is going to have to do a huge role to help out the quicks as well."


Weather Forecast

The weather, according to various forecasts, is expected to be warm, slightly humid and dry for the duration of the Test, with only day five, on Sunday, potentially seeing a 25 percent chance of rain. This lack of cloud cover, combined with the reportedly dry deck, will hinder the famous conventional swing but encourage spin and reverse swing.

Conclusion

Win the toss and bat -  first Innings runs for England on spreads if they win the toss

Should be favourable to our Swann bet, all (my bolded) comments above on dry pitches, potential cracks etc means my confidence in the theory behind this bet is increased.

As Dung already noted, that is sheer Stadium Porn.

It only lacked Heavy Roller News.  

[tikay]

I got Tikay on for the £20 he wanted.

Roffle at Yeovil playing, and Gary Johnson managing, in the Championship.

I gather it was a fairly large upset that they were there, even bigger that they've actually gone up.

I'm sure that the championship teams are all happy with the result though

£20

ROFL @ how quick you found that

<3 Mere

Incred spot.

Marky - did I ever pay you for that?

[MereNovice]

Coral have an offer on the 8pm at Windsor.  Money back if placed directly behind favourite up to £50.  They are best priced the 2nd fav, good luck charm at 3/1.  Suggest £50.  Gogo

Looks like you missed the boat on this, into 9/4. I can give Fred £20 if you want to settle up via FTP Tikay?

A literal case of "you snooze you lose".
Thanks for the offer but I'd feel guilty about accepting.
Good luck!
I'll monitor and get on if the odds lengthen.

[Karabiner]

Why is the first Ashes test at Trent Bridge rather than at Lords.

I don't really mind but it just seems un-traditional and a little bit wrong.

The first test is always at Lords and the fifth at The Oval, okay I do mind a bit.

[TightEnd]

Traditionally the second test is at lords, for a five test series.

[Doobs]

Coral have an offer on the 8pm at Windsor.  Money back if placed directly behind favourite up to £50.  They are best priced the 2nd fav, good luck charm at 3/1.  Suggest £50.  Gogo

Looks like you missed the boat on this, into 9/4. I can give Fred £20 if you want to settle up via FTP Tikay?

A literal case of "you snooze you lose".
Thanks for the offer but I'd feel guilty about accepting.
Good luck!
I'll monitor and get on if the odds lengthen.

Definitely give it a miss now.  There is a danger it could go favourite now, so you could lose the benefit of the offer.  This isn't such a worry for people who got on at 3/1, as tough to go bust backing 9/4 chances at 3/1.

[Marky147]

I got Tikay on for the £20 he wanted.

Roffle at Yeovil playing, and Gary Johnson managing, in the Championship.

I gather it was a fairly large upset that they were there, even bigger that they've actually gone up.

I'm sure that the championship teams are all happy with the result though

£20

ROFL @ how quick you found that

<3 Mere

Incred spot.

Marky - did I ever pay you for that?

You were in credit after another bet won iirc (I think you still are*)

*Awaiting confirmation from Mere  

[MereNovice]

This is a reminder that Fred has a free bet to be used by the end of the month with BetVictor courtesy of Doobs.

[Karabiner]

Traditionally the second test is at lords, for a five test series.

Okay so I was whooshed for over half a century, I blame the '60's.

[MereNovice]

We should spend some of the profits Tighty has made us recently on a new wager...

 Presburg 4.10 Brighton. I'd happily take 7/1, probably start 5/1 or less. Stan James are 10/1.

 Win only.

 No need to fall out, hope I didn't sound patronising, it wasn't my intention.

Cheers Neil, I'm on and I've just chucked you £10 on this  as well Tikay.

Ooh, top man, thanks Marky.

I owe you for two bets now, I think? Remind me how much, via PM if need be, & I'll ship it across.

So.....

Fred has £10 @ 10/1, Presburg, 4.10 Brighton

ON

If you're going to Vegas we can sort it out there

Fred moves markets, Sid now goes 5/1 Presburg!

This was a winner.