Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Where can you see 6/1 by the way? Looks like 5/1 to me. I would take 7/2 pretty happily on this bet.

I can't.

My oddschecker page had sneakily morphed into decimal, & it was showing "6", not "5/1", which caused me to have a sort of visual typo.  

'pols.

[Doobs]

Doobs is 100% correct on the Sussex stakes.

 This is a great bet, although it could again be dangerous for accounts.

 I have a few things to do today but I now feel I should be out walking ten miles.

 I suggest at least £150 each-way, definitely the best bet I've seen suggested here since something the other week that looked really clever.

 If we have to pretend we are just doing it "to trade later" then lets have £500 each-way and then we'll simply close if it shortens up with no realm discussion of why we're doing that, whether it was a good thing to do or what we intended to do if it drifted right out.

Do you still think it is dangerous for accounts ante post?  I don't do much dirty each way on the horses except ante post like this.  Figure we are gambling much more here, because of the chance of non runners etc.  

I had one go spectacularly wrong on the St James Palace when Dawn Approach showed up for instance.

[tikay]

Next week's Sussex stakes looks an interesting race.

There are currently 13 runners, of which Aljamaaheer looks like it is going for the Lennox.

The composition of the race is currently
Dawn Approach 5/4
Toronado 13/8
Declaration of War 5/1
2 pace makers for Dawn Approach
1 pace maker for Declaration of War
1 pace maker for Toronado.
and a few that may turn up, but are probably group 2/group 3 horses.

There seems to be a good chance we get 8 runners or less, and even if we get 12, the race is still likely to be good for our bet.

Dawn Approach is obviously very good, and Toronado is highly though of and ran him close last time.  Declaration of War is also very good, and given the two 3 year olds are very much linked on form, then there is always a chance that Declaration of War is just as good, and/or Dawn Approach refuses to settle.

You can back Declaration of War at 5/1 with various bookmakers.  Though it doesn't beat Betfair, his place price should probably be way shorter than the evens on offer.  Even if the two 3 year olds do turn out to be exceptional, then we get the strong chance of our money back on the place.

Suggest £50 e/w on Declaration of War (1/5 first 3) in the Sussex.  You should probably split it over at least a couple of bookmakers.  The following all offer the price and the same each way terms (PP, bet365, sky, tote/betfred, BetVictor and Coral).

Morning Mr Doobs.

As of right now, DoW is 6/1, not 5/1.

Afte some intense calculations, I have established that 6/1 beats 5/1, however, before I proceed to place the suggested bet, I'm curious as to why DoW may have drifted overnight, & in the light of this, wonder whether you still wish to proceed?

I'll be offline in an hour or so, & if we do intend to get on DoW, I'd like to do so before then.

The back money seems to have nearly gone on Betfair, which is worrying.  Think you should postpone the bet for now.  Good luck at the weekend.

You suggest postponing the bet, Mr C suggests it is the best bet ever since the last best bet ever, we should have £150 not £50, & he'd be happy at 7/2.

Two of our most trusted Elders seem to hold a different view here.

So I should.........?

[Doobs]

Next week's Sussex stakes looks an interesting race.

There are currently 13 runners, of which Aljamaaheer looks like it is going for the Lennox.

The composition of the race is currently
Dawn Approach 5/4
Toronado 13/8
Declaration of War 5/1
2 pace makers for Dawn Approach
1 pace maker for Declaration of War
1 pace maker for Toronado.
and a few that may turn up, but are probably group 2/group 3 horses.

There seems to be a good chance we get 8 runners or less, and even if we get 12, the race is still likely to be good for our bet.

Dawn Approach is obviously very good, and Toronado is highly though of and ran him close last time.  Declaration of War is also very good, and given the two 3 year olds are very much linked on form, then there is always a chance that Declaration of War is just as good, and/or Dawn Approach refuses to settle.

You can back Declaration of War at 5/1 with various bookmakers.  Though it doesn't beat Betfair, his place price should probably be way shorter than the evens on offer.  Even if the two 3 year olds do turn out to be exceptional, then we get the strong chance of our money back on the place.

Suggest £50 e/w on Declaration of War (1/5 first 3) in the Sussex.  You should probably split it over at least a couple of bookmakers.  The following all offer the price and the same each way terms (PP, bet365, sky, tote/betfred, BetVictor and Coral).

Morning Mr Doobs.

As of right now, DoW is 6/1, not 5/1.

Afte some intense calculations, I have established that 6/1 beats 5/1, however, before I proceed to place the suggested bet, I'm curious as to why DoW may have drifted overnight, & in the light of this, wonder whether you still wish to proceed?

I'll be offline in an hour or so, & if we do intend to get on DoW, I'd like to do so before then.

The back money seems to have nearly gone on Betfair, which is worrying.  Think you should postpone the bet for now.  Good luck at the weekend.

You suggest postponing the bet, Mr C suggests it is the best bet ever since the last best bet ever, we should have £150 not £50, & he'd be happy at 7/2.

Two of our most trusted Elders seem to hold a different view here.

So I should.........?

Have a cup of tea.  Will wait on Neil's view.  Managed to worry myself here with the lack of buyers on Betfair, as have a bit on over a few bookmakers. 

[tikay]

OK. If I hear nothing from Mr C in the next hour, we will probably get on.

I'll have latte # 2 first, my brain files do not seem to have opened properly this morning.

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr T.

I think we should back Warrington to win the challenge cup. They are priced behind Wigan simply because Wigan have an easier semi final draw. However Warrington are the best team currently, in both offense and defense and should comfortably beat Hull FC this weekend.

Suggest £25 Warrington @ 8/5 with sportingbet or the 6/4 with Ladbrokes, Coral is OK too.

Morning h, apologies for being a little rushed last evening.

We did, however, get safely aboard.

CONFIRMATION ONLY

We have £25 @ 8/5, Sporting Bet, Warrington to win the Challenge Cup.

ON

25/07/2013 18:10 BST

560145876

25.00 GBP

Open

Single

(65.00 GBP)

Rugby League

Challenge Cup 2013Outright WinnerWarrington

8/5

[tikay]

Tikay,

I recommend a bet on:

Napoli to win Serie A at 8-1 with same stake saver at 11/10 for top 3 finish. This is available with Coral and BET 365.

Price as low as 9/2 in some places and this 8-1 looks sure to contract now they have signed Higuian as a replacement for Cavani up front. With an ambitious owner, who reinvests wisely, an amazing home support and record to boot, they represent what I believe to be value against an aging Juventus side. With money to spend there is great value at 8-1 for a team that came second last year.

Regards

Spudy.

Thank you S.

CONFIRMATION ONLY

We have £10 EW : 8/1, Corals, Napoli to win Serie A.

ON

25/07/2013 18:06PM



Single
Each Way

£ 20.00

Napoli - Outright - Serie A Outright @ 8/1


£ 0.00

[Bad Beat]

 There is probably no reason to massively rush (unless it takes you five hours to get on by walking ten miles).

 Obviously waiting a day or so gives you a chance to read more about the Ballydoyle plans and to make sure said beast definitely runs.

 The downside is the bookies wake up to how bad this race is for each-way and switch to 1/4 1,2 or that one of the top two comes out for some reason or that the price gets cut to 7/2.

 On balance I would go in now, but you can probably wait until later in the afternoon to see whether more money pops up in pink on Betfair.

[tikay]

There is probably no reason to massively rush (unless it takes you five hours to get on by walking ten miles).

 Obviously waiting a day or so gives you a chance to read more about the Ballydoyle plans and to make sure said beast definitely runs.

 The downside is the bookies wake up to how bad this race is for each-way and switch to 1/4 1,2 or that one of the top two comes out for some reason or that the price gets cut to 7/2.

 On balance I would go in now, but you can probably wait until later in the afternoon to see whether more money pops up in pink on Betfair.

Gotcha. I think.

I shall likely invest £50 EW now, & then head up the M1 as planned, then reconsider (midday-ish) whether to have some more. 

Thanks for the help.

LOVED your blog which I received by e-mail today, & it will find it's way on to "General Poker Chat" shortly.

I shall probably entitle the Thread "Grumpy Bloke on Grumpy Blokes".

[Tal]

Oddly, I read it yesterday, too. Don't think I've vocally assessed someone's three-five range in my life.

I should worry that I'm 29 going on 79, but it never seems to bother me.

[tikay]

Next week's Sussex stakes looks an interesting race.

There are currently 13 runners, of which Aljamaaheer looks like it is going for the Lennox.

The composition of the race is currently
Dawn Approach 5/4
Toronado 13/8
Declaration of War 5/1
2 pace makers for Dawn Approach
1 pace maker for Declaration of War
1 pace maker for Toronado.
and a few that may turn up, but are probably group 2/group 3 horses.

There seems to be a good chance we get 8 runners or less, and even if we get 12, the race is still likely to be good for our bet.

Dawn Approach is obviously very good, and Toronado is highly though of and ran him close last time.  Declaration of War is also very good, and given the two 3 year olds are very much linked on form, then there is always a chance that Declaration of War is just as good, and/or Dawn Approach refuses to settle.

You can back Declaration of War at 5/1 with various bookmakers.  Though it doesn't beat Betfair, his place price should probably be way shorter than the evens on offer.  Even if the two 3 year olds do turn out to be exceptional, then we get the strong chance of our money back on the place.

Suggest £50 e/w on Declaration of War (1/5 first 3) in the Sussex.  You should probably split it over at least a couple of bookmakers.  The following all offer the price and the same each way terms (PP, bet365, sky, tote/betfred, BetVictor and Coral).

We have, for now, invested 2 x £25 EW, as below. We may or may not have some more later today, although the price seems to be heading south in the last hour, so perhaps we will be too late.

£25 EW @ 5/1, Betfred, (1/5, 1,2,3) Declaration of War, Sussex Stakes.

£25 EW @ 5/1, Corals, (1/5, 1,2,3) Declaration of War, Sussex Stakes

ON

Qipco Sussex Stakes
Antepost Outright
EW 1/5 1,2,3

Declaration Of War

5/1

 Total stake

£ 50.00

Estimated return

£ 200.00

Full stake

£ 50.00

Full estimated return

£ 200.00

_____

Declaration Of War5/1Sussex Stakes - 31/07/2013


Each Way

Stake £50.00

Estimated Return:£200.00

[Junior Senior]

There is probably no reason to massively rush (unless it takes you five hours to get on by walking ten miles).

 Obviously waiting a day or so gives you a chance to read more about the Ballydoyle plans and to make sure said beast definitely runs.

 The downside is the bookies wake up to how bad this race is for each-way and switch to 1/4 1,2 or that one of the top two comes out for some reason or that the price gets cut to 7/2.

 On balance I would go in now, but you can probably wait until later in the afternoon to see whether more money pops up in pink on Betfair.

I've gone in market-movingly LARGE with bet365 (£5e/w) so be quick before they wake up :-)

[Dubai]

No bookie is going to close an account for betting less than £100ew on Dortmund to win the league, they hold your money for 9 months bear in mind! Plus the place bit is definitely value but far from a dirty certainty

You are 1,000,000 times more likely to get accounts closed/restricted for only using bookmakers when they are giving away free money with offers, and they probably should restrict people that do this

[Dubai]

Only my opinion, obviously if people know bookmakers see if differently then let me know

[horseplayer]

agree with that

using the free bet offers every time is a lot worse for an accounts future than backing dortmund in that market


the times paywall appears to be down so i will post this again

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/sport/football/europe/article3824490.ece