Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Roffle @ Coral

They have Tommy Rowe at 11/2 to score any time v Colchester tonight. Boyle and Hills go 15/8 and 2/1 respectively. That's a bit tight but 11/2 is ridic.

Tommy Tommy scored five in 31 games last season, all from left-back. This season Poshies have plenty of options at full-back and, on Saturday, he played on the left of a midfield diamond. He hit the post v Swindon and had a couple of other chances.

Anyway, I tried for a hundo and the Barking jokers offered me £20 at 11/2 and another £30 at 7/2. Absolute joke.

The price is still there, though, so recommend a tiddle-arsey £20 @ 11/2.

Incorrect. They now quote 7/2.

We cannot get on at 7/2 if the Recommend was 11/2.

Rebuff City.

Shame really, looked a great bet.

Double posteritah.

[JaffaCake]

Tighty's 4fold is looking good for anyone who lumped on and covered it with a lucky 15 

[tikay]

Tighty's 4fold is looking good for anyone who lumped on and covered it with a lucky 15 

Oooh, good luck Jeff.

[tikay]

For discussion:

The League Cup brings much uncertainty around strength of line up, but one team that should have a decent line up at League 2 Bristol Rovers is Watford due to the fierce competition for places.  The line up I would guess is the weakest potential line up, given Saturday's team at Birmingham would be:

Bond
Ekstrand
Brown
Doyley
Pudil
Murray
Battocchio
Smith
Faraoni
Acuna
Fabbrini

Can really see the front 2 ripping Bristol Rovers up - should just have too much speed of thought and power - and the rest of the team is very solid.  There are worse 10/11 pokes around imo.

I would like to back this up

I don't think thread has any appetite for multiples, certainly not this early in the season but tonight is a test for a theory of mine which is

- In prior years many Championship clubs, particularly those involved in promotion or relegation battles, didn't care too much about the cups and this was reflected in team selection

- This year has seen FFP introduced, and up to nine Championship clubs are impinged because of it

- Logically the importance of revenue for a cup run has increased because the FFP ratios are calculated on player wages to turnover each June...on the preceding season. Teams that break the ratios face transfer embargos and then points deductions

- How to get revenue up? Higher crowds, of course, but stadium capacity is a limit. Sponsorship revenue of course...but also cup runs, both prize money, TV fees and gate receipts....

- Owners cannot just pump money in to circumvent the FFP rules

I got a hint of this implication for the Cup competitions a few days ago when I heard that Leicester were planning to send a first choice side to Wycombe tonight

So, I looked at the following four tonight.

Watford 10/11 at Bristol R

Blackburn 11/10 at Carlisle tomorrow

Burnley 20/21 at York

Bolton 10/11 at Shrewsbury

Criteria of

Championship clubs with FFP problems (bar Watford, the three above have lost recently or are about to lose Premiership parachute payments which act as a buffer to FFP)

Away at lower division sides but priced as "backable" ie not 1/2 etc

Lower division sides I don't rate too highly. York, Shrewsbury, Carlisle are all finance restricted on squads and I doubt any will have top half type seasons.I saw two of the three in pre-season, saw nothing to get me excited.


So all that is a long winded way of saying,look at the CHampionship teams tonight. Expect them to be stronger than they might have been for this stage of the League cup in prior seasons, and please consdier the Dung Beetle bet above

This was the Tighty post.

[tikay]

Nicky Nakhi just scored.

[BigAdz]

Too impatient to wait for tomorrow, but Tightys Treble(got a certain ring to it) did just the job. N1 Tighty!

[ripple11]

For discussion:

The League Cup brings much uncertainty around strength of line up, but one team that should have a decent line up at League 2 Bristol Rovers is Watford due to the fierce competition for places.  The line up I would guess is the weakest potential line up, given Saturday's team at Birmingham would be:

Bond
Ekstrand
Brown
Doyley
Pudil
Murray
Battocchio
Smith
Faraoni
Acuna
Fabbrini

Can really see the front 2 ripping Bristol Rovers up - should just have too much speed of thought and power - and the rest of the team is very solid.  There are worse 10/11 pokes around imo.

I would like to back this up

I don't think thread has any appetite for multiples, certainly not this early in the season but tonight is a test for a theory of mine which is

- In prior years many Championship clubs, particularly those involved in promotion or relegation battles, didn't care too much about the cups and this was reflected in team selection

- This year has seen FFP introduced, and up to nine Championship clubs are impinged because of it

- Logically the importance of revenue for a cup run has increased because the FFP ratios are calculated on player wages to turnover each June...on the preceding season. Teams that break the ratios face transfer embargos and then points deductions

- How to get revenue up? Higher crowds, of course, but stadium capacity is a limit. Sponsorship revenue of course...but also cup runs, both prize money, TV fees and gate receipts....

- Owners cannot just pump money in to circumvent the FFP rules

I got a hint of this implication for the Cup competitions a few days ago when I heard that Leicester were planning to send a first choice side to Wycombe tonight

So, I looked at the following four tonight.

Watford 10/11 at Bristol R

Blackburn 11/10 at Carlisle tomorrow

Burnley 20/21 at York

Bolton 10/11 at Shrewsbury

Criteria of

Championship clubs with FFP problems (bar Watford, the three above have lost recently or are about to lose Premiership parachute payments which act as a buffer to FFP)

Away at lower division sides but priced as "backable" ie not 1/2 etc

Lower division sides I don't rate too highly. York, Shrewsbury, Carlisle are all finance restricted on squads and I doubt any will have top half type seasons.I saw two of the three in pre-season, saw nothing to get me excited.


So all that is a long winded way of saying,look at the CHampionship teams tonight. Expect them to be stronger than they might have been for this stage of the League cup in prior seasons, and please consdier the Dung Beetle bet above

This was the Tighty post.

Nice work Dung and Tighty.

[tikay]

Amen to that.

I am given to understand he will be appearing on a TV Show this Thursday, a Football betting affair, giving the millions of viewers the benefit of his accumulated football wisdom for the upcoming season, including OCD type stats and geeky football trivia.

He will, of course, be ably assisted by an expert.

You can "Ask Tighty" by e-Mailing the usual address.

[Jamier-Host]

Tighty's 4fold is looking good for anyone who lumped on and covered it with a lucky 15 

Yep good shout on that one. Come on Blackburn!

[JaffaCake]

How did Fred pick all those golf bets?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £16.05

Outstanding Bets £2489.06

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=28


A break even day yesterday with Watford's win at the Gas offset by Jack and Jeremy not netting for Uddersfield and Wednesday respectively

In the T20 Quarters Surrey beat Somerset and I was at Northampton to see Northants beat Durham. Northants now 4/1 for the T20 which makes your correspondent happy, and they are still good value too as likely to be outsiders of the last 4. Today Hampshire host Lancashire. Essex play tomorrow night

In baseball Boston won but the Rays lost. Boston now have a lead in the AL East. The Royals lost

I have £382 coming if Blackburn beat Carlisle tonight. Good enough reason as any to expect Carlisle to win really.....!

[Doobs]

How did Fred pick all those golf bets?

The small ones are mainly down to me.  I have a spreadsheet that takes compares odds vs Betfair.  The bookies give you 6 or 7 places on the each way which is very generous.  The spreadsheet churns them all and tells me when they are too generous.  It is all very mechanical.  You could arb off some of the win bets on Betfair, but it isn't my thing. 

I have kept the stakes small to leave space for stuff with more traditional reasoning.

I haven't posted about the exact maths of these bets, but there is similar stuff here.  http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.0

[tikay]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £16.05

Outstanding Bets £2489.06

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=28


A break even day yesterday with Watford's win at the Gas offset by Jack and Jeremy not netting for Uddersfield and Wednesday respectively

In the T20 Quarters Surrey beat Somerset and I was at Northampton to see Northants beat Durham. Northants now 4/1 for the T20 which makes your correspondent happy, and they are still good value too as likely to be outsiders of the last 4. Today Hampshire host Lancashire. Essex play tomorrow night

In baseball Boston won but the Rays lost. Boston now have a lead in the AL East. The Royals lost

I have £382 coming if Blackburn beat Carlisle tonight. Good enough reason as any to expect Carlisle to win really.....!

Rooting for you Rich, that'd be quite something. You are not alone, either.

[TightEnd]

The Memorial ground Bristol, dual use rugby-football ground and scene of Watford's triumph last night



Super savers...

Click to see full-size image.

Cameron White is Northants man of the match

Click to see full-size image.

He suddenly loves the press...



About to be our favourite South African

Click to see full-size image.

Aggborough, home of Kiddy

[tikay]

How did Fred pick all those golf bets?

The small ones are mainly down to me.  I have a spreadsheet that takes compares odds vs Betfair.  The bookies give you 6 or 7 places on the each way which is very generous.  The spreadsheet churns them all and tells me when they are too generous.  It is all very mechanical.  You could arb off some of the win bets on Betfair, but it isn't my thing. 

I have kept the stakes small to leave space for stuff with more traditional reasoning.

I haven't posted about the exact maths of these bets, but there is similar stuff here.  http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.0

Just to expand slightly on that, as Jaffa may have missed all the debate & explanations, as a general rule, when we can beat Betfair, (if the Market has properly formed) we have value. This applies to almost all bets, presumably.