Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Take a good look at that Memorial Ground picture. The land has been sold to Sainsbury's.

Apparently, the stadium was built on an area of land called Buffalo Bill's Field, previously occupied by allotments.

Thank you, Wikipedia.

[Doobs]

How did Fred pick all those golf bets?

The small ones are mainly down to me.  I have a spreadsheet that takes compares odds vs Betfair.  The bookies give you 6 or 7 places on the each way which is very generous.  The spreadsheet churns them all and tells me when they are too generous.  It is all very mechanical.  You could arb off some of the win bets on Betfair, but it isn't my thing. 

I have kept the stakes small to leave space for stuff with more traditional reasoning.

I haven't posted about the exact maths of these bets, but there is similar stuff here.  http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.0

Just to expand slightly on that, as Jaffa may have missed all the debate & explanations, as a general rule, when we can beat Betfair, (if the Market has properly formed) we have value. This applies to almost all bets, presumably.

I'd say the general rule is that Betfair is a good indicator that you have value.  I just sometimes take it a step further.  

I wouldn't really like to blindly bet everything that beats Betfair and assume I have value, but if I have a decent margin above Betfair then I am happy enough to bet close to blind.  It is the same with these offers, if the price is close to Betfair and the Bookie has offered something that means the price is really 20% or 30% better than the headline price, then I think you should just take it.  

I must admit I sometimes struggle with this in horse racing, as I end up backing some horses that I really don't like.  Golf I can be more relaxed, as I know less.  I could have a long chat about why I think assuming your own ignorance is usually the way to go for most people with stock market investing too.

 

[tikay]

Cut it down to 10, I broke some of the prices last night, and applied stronger filters.  Filtered on price <= 150/1 and below and expected return >15%

Betfred £5 e/w
Matt Kuchar 33/1
Steve Stricker 50/1
Ryan Moore 100/1
Richard Sterne 125/1

Paddy Power or bet365
£5 e/w Sergo Garcia 55/1

Paddy Power or Will Hill
£5 e/w Bubba Watson 66/1

BetVictor or Coral
£5 e/w Jim Furyk 80/1

Paddy Power
£5 e/w Harris English 125/1

Sportingbet, Stans, Will hill
£5 e/w Paul Casey 150/1

Sportingbet, BetVictor, Coral
£5 e/w Miguel Angel Jiminez 150/1

Total £100.

Thanks Doobs.

CONFIRMATION ONLY.

Not all bets are exactly as recommended, due to Restrictions, time constraints at the time, & probably some misclickage, but most are, or are pretty close. ALL are for £5 EW, ezcept Garcia, which is £3.55 EW.

I won't C & P the Betslips, it'll run to acres of space, but any of them can be proofed upon request.

Total Invested = £99.10.

ON

Matt Kuchar, £5 EW (SEVEN places paid) @ 33/1, BetFred.
 

Steve Stricker, £5 EW (SEVEN places paid) @ 50/1, BetFred.

Ryan Moore, £5 EW (SEVEN places paid) @ 100/1, BetFred.


Richard Sterne, £5 EW (SEVEN places paid) @ 100/1, BetFred.


Harris English, £5 EW (SIX places paid) @ 100/1, BetFred

 
Paul Casey, £5 EW (SEVEN places paid) @ 150/1, Wm Hill
 

Bubba Watson, £5 EW (SIX places paid) @ 55/1, Wm Hill

Miguel Angel Jiminez, £5 EW (SIX places paid) @ 150/1, BetVictor.


Jim Furyk, £5 EW (SIX places paid) @ 70/1, BetVictor.


Sergia Garcia, £4.55 EW (SIX places paid) @ 55/1, Bet365.

[tikay]

Take a good look at that Memorial Ground picture. The land has been sold to Sainsbury's.

Apparently, the stadium was built on an area of land called Buffalo Bill's Field, previously occupied by allotments.

Thank you, Wikipedia.

I wonder how many other sports stadia there are (or were....) where all or some of the land has been sold to Sainsbury's or Tesco?

Pretty sure I can think of 4 or 5 off the top of my head.

PS - Slough Greyhound Stadium, RIP.

[JaffaCake]

How did Fred pick all those golf bets?

The small ones are mainly down to me.  I have a spreadsheet that takes compares odds vs Betfair.  The bookies give you 6 or 7 places on the each way which is very generous.  The spreadsheet churns them all and tells me when they are too generous.  It is all very mechanical.  You could arb off some of the win bets on Betfair, but it isn't my thing. 

I have kept the stakes small to leave space for stuff with more traditional reasoning.

I haven't posted about the exact maths of these bets, but there is similar stuff here.  http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.0

Just to expand slightly on that, as Jaffa may have missed all the debate & explanations, as a general rule, when we can beat Betfair, (if the Market has properly formed) we have value. This applies to almost all bets, presumably.

Thanks fellas, makes sense. Be good if our golf experts, Phil, Ralph, Adam, any others, have some extra to add to any, course suiting, form, wife not about to go into labour, so we can have a bigger bet. Obv some of this may be in the price which is why we've already backed them ofc.

I backed Zach Johnson and Henrik Stenson on my man's say so earlier in the week, up for more tho if anyone has more input?

[TightEnd]

Johnson and Stenson have to be sensible don't they. Everything I read says - accuracy off the tee not length, good iron play etc. Tight course, tough set up etc etc, sounds like Johnson and Stenson territory.

[Tal]

Take a good look at that Memorial Ground picture. The land has been sold to Sainsbury's.

Apparently, the stadium was built on an area of land called Buffalo Bill's Field, previously occupied by allotments.

Thank you, Wikipedia.

I wonder how many other sports stadia there are (or were....) where all or some of the land has been sold to Sainsbury's or Tesco?

Pretty sure I can think of 4 or 5 off the top of my head.

PS - Slough Greyhound Stadium, RIP.

Capitalism works in this case in the sense that the UWE Stadium will be good for the local university, create jobs and will be funded in part by the sale of an old stadium no longer fit for purpose. That old stadium will become somewhere the local community will visit more regularly and spend more money in.

The payoff is the loss of the visual reminder of a little piece of sporting history.

I'd love WHL to be redeveloped rather than having a new place built next door, but thems seems to be dem rubs...

[tikay]

How did Fred pick all those golf bets?

The small ones are mainly down to me.  I have a spreadsheet that takes compares odds vs Betfair.  The bookies give you 6 or 7 places on the each way which is very generous.  The spreadsheet churns them all and tells me when they are too generous.  It is all very mechanical.  You could arb off some of the win bets on Betfair, but it isn't my thing. 

I have kept the stakes small to leave space for stuff with more traditional reasoning.

I haven't posted about the exact maths of these bets, but there is similar stuff here.  http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.0

Just to expand slightly on that, as Jaffa may have missed all the debate & explanations, as a general rule, when we can beat Betfair, (if the Market has properly formed) we have value. This applies to almost all bets, presumably.

Thanks fellas, makes sense. Be good if our golf experts, Phil, Ralph, Adam, any others, have some extra to add to any, course suiting, form, wife not about to go into labour, so we can have a bigger bet. Obv some of this may be in the price which is why we've already backed them ofc.

I backed Zach Johnson and Henrik Stenson on my man's say so earlier in the week, up for more tho if anyone has more input?

I am sure they will, Jeff, but they take great account of weather & the draw, so generally, they don't Post suggestions until both are known.

Phil, in particular, is very big on both, & if he finds time, he'll do a full run-down for us later, but he's a bit busy right now, was working the golf all last weekend, & will presumably be doing so this week, too. 

[TightEnd]

Cut it down to 10, I broke some of the prices last night, and applied stronger filters.  Filtered on price <= 150/1 and below and expected return >15%

Betfred £5 e/w
Matt Kuchar 33/1
Steve Stricker 50/1
Ryan Moore 100/1
Richard Sterne 125/1

Paddy Power or bet365
£5 e/w Sergo Garcia 55/1

Paddy Power or Will Hill
£5 e/w Bubba Watson 66/1

BetVictor or Coral
£5 e/w Jim Furyk 80/1

Paddy Power
£5 e/w Harris English 125/1

Sportingbet, Stans, Will hill
£5 e/w Paul Casey 150/1

Sportingbet, BetVictor, Coral
£5 e/w Miguel Angel Jiminez 150/1

Total £100.

Thanks Doobs.

CONFIRMATION ONLY.

Not all bets are exactly as recommended, due to Restrictions, time constraints at the time, & probably some misclickage, but most are, or are pretty close. ALL are for £5 EW, ezcept Garcia, which is £3.55 EW.

I won't C & P the Betslips, it'll run to acres of space, but any of them can be proofed upon request.

Total Invested = £99.10.

ON

Matt Kuchar, £5 EW (SEVEN places paid) @ 33/1, BetFred.
 

Steve Stricker, £5 EW (SEVEN places paid) @ 50/1, BetFred.

Ryan Moore, £5 EW (SEVEN places paid) @ 100/1, BetFred.


Richard Sterne, £5 EW (SEVEN places paid) @ 100/1, BetFred.


Harris English, £5 EW (SIX places paid) @ 100/1, BetFred

 
Paul Casey, £5 EW (SEVEN places paid) @ 150/1, Wm Hill
 

Bubba Watson, £5 EW (SIX places paid) @ 55/1, Wm Hill

Miguel Angel Jiminez, £5 EW (SIX places paid) @ 150/1, BetVictor.


Jim Furyk, £5 EW (SIX places paid) @ 70/1, BetVictor.


Sergia Garcia, £4.55 EW (SIX places paid) @ 55/1, Bet365.

Are all the e/w 1/4 odds please?

Any offers attached to any of these?

[tikay]

Apologies Rich, should have included that.

They are ALL Quarter Odds.

There are no associated "Offers" (6 & 7 places excepted) that I am aware of.

[tikay]

My own team Wednesday away to Rotherham tonight in what should be a very good game tonight, but here is a recc for thread.

Jeremy Helan played up front for some weird reason and he played pretty decent in what was a close game against the league favourites QPR at the weekend, Helan may or may not play against Rotherham tonight and it may not be up front, but I would be thinking that there is a fair opportunity he maybe up front once again.

I was pretty shocked to see that to be first goalscorer he is 25-1, even if he plays in his normal playing role, 25-1 is a price & with a fair chance of an upfront role again, it's a huge price. Furthermore, if he scores second, then you get your money back with Hills, which of course is an extra bonus!

Recc £5-£10 interest at 25-1 with Hills on MOBILE. (He's as small as 10's with Coral)

CONFIRMATION ONLY

£5 @ 25/1, Wm Hill Mobile, Jeremy Helan, FGS.

ON

06 Aug 13 / 19:13

Single

1

 Rotherham v Sheff Wed  –  First Goalscorer

 Jeremy Helan @ 25/1

Lost

£5.00

£0.00

O/0457483/0000501/F

[Doobs]

How did Fred pick all those golf bets?

The small ones are mainly down to me.  I have a spreadsheet that takes compares odds vs Betfair.  The bookies give you 6 or 7 places on the each way which is very generous.  The spreadsheet churns them all and tells me when they are too generous.  It is all very mechanical.  You could arb off some of the win bets on Betfair, but it isn't my thing. 

I have kept the stakes small to leave space for stuff with more traditional reasoning.

I haven't posted about the exact maths of these bets, but there is similar stuff here.  http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.0

Just to expand slightly on that, as Jaffa may have missed all the debate & explanations, as a general rule, when we can beat Betfair, (if the Market has properly formed) we have value. This applies to almost all bets, presumably.

Thanks fellas, makes sense. Be good if our golf experts, Phil, Ralph, Adam, any others, have some extra to add to any, course suiting, form, wife not about to go into labour, so we can have a bigger bet. Obv some of this may be in the price which is why we've already backed them ofc.

I backed Zach Johnson and Henrik Stenson on my man's say so earlier in the week, up for more tho if anyone has more input?

I have Stenson in amongst my picks.  The problem is that I (helped) kill half the prices the day before, including Stenson.  Ladbrokes were my favourite here, they had Poulter at 66/1, limited me to £2.50 each way, then cut the price to 40/1.  They have a money back offer if Woods or someone else wins, but they don't let me take their offers either.    If I get time I may have a trawl through and find some bets that specifically punish Ladbrokes!

It doesn't take much to cause a price to fall, and if I put a price up for discussion asking for input, I'd probably miss half the prices before reading the input.  The price really is everything with these bets.  If you think you have a 20% margin at 125/1, you don't have any when they go 100/1.   So it becomes a question of is the extra input worth the lower price and I am not sure on that one.  There is always the danger of putting them up, getting no feedback, and still losing all the prices.

I know Tikay missed a couple of prices, but I am fairly relaxed about that, it is probably good for the account to make some less +EV bets and bad prices anyway.


 

[tikay]

Yes, I missed a few prices, which as you say has a marginal indirect benefit, but that was incidental.

I was playing some poker at the time, & those bets (NOT complaining) were quite fiddly to sort, what with 3 or 4 different Firms,  10 bets, some of them restricting me, & the poker Tables dinging & donging, I was getting in a right fluster. Luckily, I only play one hand in 87. I try to use the i-Pad for bets where possible, too, but it is quite fiddly on some sites, & I've yet to master cutting & pasting on the ippy.

No pain, no gain.  

[tikay]

I think I am now up to date with the admin stuff, & recommends.

Shout me if I have missed anything.

[scotty2hatty]

Express Master goes in the final of the Sussex Cup tonight, live on Sky Sports, 9:19.