Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

What do you think of 18/1 (1-4) about Suarez for top goalscorer?

Smarter guys have any thoughts on this?

Surely he's in with a shout if he stays in the prem?

I would expect City to have a few players in the mid teens, the same at Chelsea and that would leave Van Persie in a United squad without the don running things.

Problem is the suspension.  He is going to play less games than the rest and I suppose possibly a chance he leaves country too.  The EW is fairly tempting though especially if the price was still there as he signed for Arsenal......

[redarmi]

In that case I guess you have no confidence at all in the clubs management as they don't want to sell him for £40m and would rather cripple the club than sell him for that.  Gerrard will once again be the most overrated player in the EPL.  Side bet?  Even money.  You win if they finish in the top five and I win if they don't?  Anything up to £500.....

I have every confidence in the management, for that very reason (amongst other better reasons) that they don't want to sell him for only £40m.  You seem to imply, that without Suarez, and insisting on still playing SG and heavily relying on the England Captain that we are therefore no better than the (with respect) Aston Villa's, Newcastle and Sunderland's of this world. In fact you believe we could get relegated?!

Side Bet - I'll take that bet, £75..............On condition that......you've declared you feel we could get relegated, you can get 16/1 on us finishing in the bottom half...as you believe 500-1 for relegation is possible, I'll give you 500/1 for us finishing 16th (inclusive) or lower - i.e./ bottom 5 for the same amount....

Just to be clear I have to take £75 on three separate bets?  Evens no top 5, 16/1 bottom half and 500-1 bottom five?  is that right?

[Tal]

Joseph L Doob is apparently famous for his work on martingales. My first thought was they'd be like starlings, but alas no. Wiki spells it out in lay terms for the uneducated.


A martingale is a sequence of random variables (i.e., a stochastic process) for which, at a particular time in the realized sequence, the expectation of the next value in the sequence is equal to the present observed value even given knowledge of all prior observed values at a current time.

Well duh!

I know of the the martingale betting system, & the martingale that is used on horses, as a piece of tack.

Don't know that stochastic thing, though.

The most famous martingale application is the roulette tactic of £1 on red, then £2, £4 and so on until you win.

In short (he says hopefully), it's where previous results aren't relevant to the outcome of the next event. Pretty much all our gambling is a martingale jobbie.

I think...

[Marky147]

benteke e/w. Will play every game, 16 last season. Team will be better, benteke scores over 20 he will come in e/w at 18-1. Rvp a solid favourite obv.

Cheers Rich, that'll do me for a sweat, and I'll probably try to jump in before the price goes if it looks like Suarez is staying in the UK.

Problem is the suspension.  He is going to play less games than the rest and I suppose possibly a chance he leaves country too.  The EW is fairly tempting though especially if the price was still there as he signed for Arsenal......

Yes, that was obviously one of the points to consider, and I was looking at it more from the e/w perspective than winning. However, if you could nick the price before he signed for Arsenal it would be even more appealing.

[Dubai]

In that case I guess you have no confidence at all in the clubs management as they don't want to sell him for £40m and would rather cripple the club than sell him for that.  Gerrard will once again be the most overrated player in the EPL.  Side bet?  Even money.  You win if they finish in the top five and I win if they don't?  Anything up to £500.....

I have every confidence in the management, for that very reason (amongst other better reasons) that they don't want to sell him for only £40m.  You seem to imply, that without Suarez, and insisting on still playing SG and heavily relying on the England Captain that we are therefore no better than the (with respect) Aston Villa's, Newcastle and Sunderland's of this world. In fact you believe we could get relegated?!

Side Bet - I'll take that bet, £75..............On condition that......you've declared you feel we could get relegated, you can get 16/1 on us finishing in the bottom half...as you believe 500-1 for relegation is possible, I'll give you 500/1 for us finishing 16th (inclusive) or lower - i.e./ bottom 5 for the same amount....

Think bets where it can cost one side £37500 probably shouldn't be getting matched on here. But obv 500-1 is value for them to come bottom 5

[redarmi]

Yeah that is my concern.  Happy to have the other two bets and, say a tenner or score on the 500-1 but I don't really want to have a bet to win £37.5k off any individual really.  I wouldn't be that comfortable having that bet with half of the bookies on oddschecker to be honest!!!

[sovietsong]

In that case I guess you have no confidence at all in the clubs management as they don't want to sell him for £40m and would rather cripple the club than sell him for that.  Gerrard will once again be the most overrated player in the EPL.  Side bet?  Even money.  You win if they finish in the top five and I win if they don't?  Anything up to £500.....

I have every confidence in the management, for that very reason (amongst other better reasons) that they don't want to sell him for only £40m.  You seem to imply, that without Suarez, and insisting on still playing SG and heavily relying on the England Captain that we are therefore no better than the (with respect) Aston Villa's, Newcastle and Sunderland's of this world. In fact you believe we could get relegated?!

Side Bet - I'll take that bet, £75..............On condition that......you've declared you feel we could get relegated, you can get 16/1 on us finishing in the bottom half...as you believe 500-1 for relegation is possible, I'll give you 500/1 for us finishing 16th (inclusive) or lower - i.e./ bottom 5 for the same amount....

Think bets where it can cost one side £37500 probably shouldn't be getting matched on here. But obv 500-1 is value for them to come bottom 5

Stop spoiling it Dubai

[Waz1892]

In that case I guess you have no confidence at all in the clubs management as they don't want to sell him for £40m and would rather cripple the club than sell him for that.  Gerrard will once again be the most overrated player in the EPL.  Side bet?  Even money.  You win if they finish in the top five and I win if they don't?  Anything up to £500.....

I have every confidence in the management, for that very reason (amongst other better reasons) that they don't want to sell him for only £40m.  You seem to imply, that without Suarez, and insisting on still playing SG and heavily relying on the England Captain that we are therefore no better than the (with respect) Aston Villa's, Newcastle and Sunderland's of this world. In fact you believe we could get relegated?!

Side Bet - I'll take that bet, £75..............On condition that......you've declared you feel we could get relegated, you can get 16/1 on us finishing in the bottom half...as you believe 500-1 for relegation is possible, I'll give you 500/1 for us finishing 16th (inclusive) or lower - i.e./ bottom 5 for the same amount....

Just to be clear I have to take £75 on three separate bets?  Evens no top 5, 16/1 bottom half and 500-1 bottom five?  is that right?

No sorry, 2 bets between us (The bottom half odds were an example of what you can get, and my silly point on how daft us getting relegated is)

My thinking was we both bet £75. I'm betting my £75 @ Even money that we'll finish Top 5.  Your betting your £75 we finish Bottom 5 @ 500/1.

However is this really, genuinely fair on you?  As the actual bet is however unlikely to actually happen (IMO), IF it did, do I have £37,500 to give you - strangely enough no.  So I'm not liking the fact that I wouldn't be able to pay up, as it then becomes a pointless bet.

So I'm happy to take the original £75 bet we finish 5th or above @ evens.

[TightEnd]

500-1 is actually great value Waz. I think it will happen more than once in 500 times!

[Waz1892]

Agree with the above posts too. Me being silly, and pushing my point home with cheques I can't cash...i was rattled  - lol.

[Waz1892]

500-1 is actually great value Waz. I think it will happen more than once in 500 times!

edit mis-read your post!!


I do agree 100%...we'll never finish bottom 5...but it's not fair or morally right to take a bet on when I wouldn't be able to pay if Id lose.. Doesn't seem right at all.

[Chompy]

20-1 Laddies, 18-1 365 that Liverpool finish in the bottom half. Would suggest there are worse 20-1 pokes around.

[tikay]

20-1 Laddies, 18-1 365 that Liverpool finish in the bottom half. Would suggest there are worse 20-1 pokes around.

Yup, agree with that.

[horseplayer]

This is the season the Rodgers myth starts to unravel

[Waz1892]

must leave thread...it'll cost me a fortune at this rate!!....