Tips for Tikay

[Ironside]

ok not a bet i can make as a saints fan every time i bet on one of my teams i lose

but what do people think of the 2.75 available on ladbrookes on southampton finishing top 10
think the odds are as low as 2.35 on betfair

they had a great finish too last season finishing just out the top 10 haven't lost anyone of there star players
and the players that they had last season have all had a years experience in the premiership

personally i think its about even money that we will finish top half but that could be rose tinted specs

[redarmi]

Alright Waz we will have the £75 at evens.  They finish top 5 you are the winner.  If not I win.  Good luck.

Tal/others - think I probably slightly have the worst of it in terms of that there are better EV bets I could have against them.  They are 1/3 to finish in the top 6 and 2/1 to finish top 4 so it seemed fair way we could both have a friendly bet.  

Excellent.  Cheers, enjoyed the banter too.

How do I get the £75 to you, assuming you want it before the season starts?

No not at all.  Just settle when the season is done either way.

[Waz1892]

Alright Waz we will have the £75 at evens.  They finish top 5 you are the winner.  If not I win.  Good luck.

Tal/others - think I probably slightly have the worst of it in terms of that there are better EV bets I could have against them.  They are 1/3 to finish in the top 6 and 2/1 to finish top 4 so it seemed fair way we could both have a friendly bet.  

Excellent.  Cheers, enjoyed the banter too.

How do I get the £75 to you, assuming you want it before the season starts?

No not at all.  Just settle when the season is done either way.

OK.  Looking forward to the ride

[Snowball]

ok not a bet i can make as a saints fan every time i bet on one of my teams i lose

but what do people think of the 2.75 available on ladbrookes on southampton finishing top 10
think the odds are as low as 2.35 on betfair

they had a great finish too last season finishing just out the top 10 haven't lost anyone of there star players
and the players that they had last season have all had a years experience in the premiership

personally i think its about even money that we will finish top half but that could be rose tinted specs

I like it but I'm pretty certain freds on Southampton to be relegated lol

[Ironside]

ok not a bet i can make as a saints fan every time i bet on one of my teams i lose

but what do people think of the 2.75 available on ladbrookes on southampton finishing top 10
think the odds are as low as 2.35 on betfair

they had a great finish too last season finishing just out the top 10 haven't lost anyone of there star players
and the players that they had last season have all had a years experience in the premiership

personally i think its about even money that we will finish top half but that could be rose tinted specs

I like it but I'm pretty certain freds on Southampton to be relegated lol

i might join the fred might be worth losing a cpl of quid for us too stay up

[Ironside]

would like too know who proposed the bet and there thinking though

[gherkin]

I don't really get the Arsenal bet at 15/8.  For a season long sweat it provides plenty of entertainment so I don't want to come across critical but I just don't see any value. 

To break even we need it to win 35% of the time and to be a worthwhile investment for 9 months or so, you would want it to come off 40%+.  I just don't see how Arsenal are going to finish above (at least) 2 out of Man C, Man U, Spurs & Chelsea that often.  They have the weakest squad of the top 5 at the moment so the price relies on a lot of transfer activity going their way.  If Arsenal sign Suarez (or someone of equal quality) and Spurs sell Bale to Real Madrid I think Arsenal would be ~40% for a top 3 finish.  If they don't get a top class striker and Bale stays (or moves to Man Utd with Rooney leaving to Chelsea) then they can't possibly be more than 25%.

Just my two cents

[Dubai]

Go on then Dave, il have £800@15/8 with you. Let me know if on

[gherkin]

Go on then Dave, il have £800@15/8 with you. Let me know if on

Go on then, booked.  I was curious as to what you thought about this bet, looks like I found out!

[Dubai]

Nah im an Arsenal fan so don't read too much into it

[The Camel]

I am not sure I have ever had a bet on the Premier League.  It is such a well developed market and locking your money up for the season when it can be rolled over many times over the course of the year isn't really my thing but this year I think I may have to have a go for a couple of reasons that I don't think are really being taken into consideration by the market.  Taking all the teams in turn:

Liverpool/Tottenham - the so called live outsiders are both likely to lose their star players in Suarez and Bale.  Even if they don't given both players seem to want to go it is hard to see them operating as effectively as before even if they stay and there has to be a chance they leave in January too.  Liverpool are, in my opinion, okay value to get relegated at 500/1.  Suarez was so far and away their most important player it is incredible.  They will play a captain that is declining at a huge rate of knots and possibly shouldn't be playing but he will not be dropped and will continue to have a huge influence at the club.

Man City - Seem to be pretty solid favourites to me but a lot of new players and a new manager adds a level of unpredictability.  They are probably the most settled team in the league (of the contenders) and are a rock solid favourite at 9/4ish.

Man Utd - For years they have been a team that have outperformed their stats to a huge extent.  To all of us that uses stat analysis they have been a team that have outperformed their talent and have scored more goals than their shots data suggested that they should.  I have come to the conclusion that there is only one reason for this.  Fergusons tactical nous.  This year they won't have that.  Moyes could be as good.  He probably won't be.  As a team they will be somewhat unsettled with the Rooney stuff and if they get off to a bad start it might not bode well.  I think they should be 4-1 shots.

Chelsea - The on/off thing with Rooney can't be helping Torres and if they don't get Rooney they are stuck with a striker that the manager probably doesn't fancy and who has never really got it done there.  Added to that are the negative influences of Terry and Lampard who are past their best.  This seems a no win situation for Mourinho.  He plays them and his team are weakened.  He tries to find a way to move them out and it will take so much time and energy it will distract and disrupt.  They obviously have a decent chance but I am not sure they are 9/4 shots.

Arsenal - They have got rid of the deadwood and potentially going to sign the best upgrade they can in Suarez and even if they don't they will likely sign someone to score goals.  They have Wilshere back and a lot of continuity and still one of the best managers in the league.  They struggled with injuries last year especially in defence where Kocielny, Mertersacker and Vermalen missed 48 games between them yet they still got in the CL.  They just seem massively solid to me and I just don't understand why they aren't 7/1 shots and 11/1 with the Magic sign seems very fair to me especially EW.  Also really like 15/8 to finish in the top 3 with Ladbrokes.  In fact of the bets I think I like that one the most.  I can't have them bigger than 11/8.

I'll lay you 5/2 Arsenal for the top 3 if you lay me 4/1 Utd for the title Stu.

[Dubai]

How much? I'l do it although I said Man U were a bet at 4/1 the other day

[Dubai]

il have £1000/400 and u got £1000/250?

[LeedsRhodesy]

Go on then Dave, il have £800@15/8 with you. Let me know if on

Dubai are you wanting to bet £800 on Arsneal to finish in the top 3 at 15/8

[Dubai]

Yeah ive got Arsenal @15/8