Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Why must we bet each way?  What are the terms?

The Terms are quarter odds, 4 places.

I saw it different to Tighty, I saw it as a "win only" bet.

I guess that is a whole other debate though.

[a.sparrow]

The fav has been withdraw in the 7.05 tonight.  Big rule four for adz's bet.  Can anyone tell me what price the 11/2 is with the decuctions please? 

[Eso Kral]

I actually think the "OMG what WERE we thinking?" co-efficient in the forward book is comparatively small at the moment

A few, but not so bad

As a group of posters, opinion givers and head decision maker, the collective is a way better than it was a year ago. Tempted to believe this is reflected in a rising ROI over time as Hector showed though the recent incidence of a few big "boom" bets may be flattering it somewhat

Well yes, a few nice "BOOM" bets, but we have had big losers, too.

The BEST sweats we have had were losers - Barnet, Brighton & the 49-ers, although I think we got out of it on all three occasions via the reverse equity pissing route. But wow, how much fun did we have with them?

Eso Kral tho.

Sigh 

[tikay]

It's because we care, Rich. Honest.

[TightEnd]

Vydra at West Brom

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/article/165/8868373/matej-vydra-joins-west-brom

20 goals in the Championship last season, 42 games. Obviously a lower standard of defender

Signed on a season long loan for West Brom this moring from Watford A, sorry, from Udinese


Line is set at 6.5 goals this season

He is also 4/1 top West Brom scorer


Lukaku and his seventeen goals have gone back to Chelseas's bench

Anelka has come in. Anelka has 10 goals in 65 games in the last three seasons combined at Chelsea, Juve and in China. He's 34yo

Shane Long has 16 in 63, 8 goals a season since joining from Reading two years ago

Rosenberg is the third squad striker. No goals in 24 appearances last season

I can't price Vydra at 4-1 against these three. Can you?

[aaron1867]

I do not like season longers & I do not like such 'sweats', but I have followed Rich, it seems like a terrific spot.

PS - If Udinese are letting such players go on loan, they must have some side there....

[Doobs]

Why must we bet each way?  What are the terms?

The Terms are quarter odds, 4 places.

I saw it different to Tighty, I saw it as a "win only" bet.

I guess that is a whole other debate though.

Thanks, I couldn't see them on the phone.  The terms are good.  I think you probably struggle to find value in a handicap with a 20% overound,  but close ti 4/1 first 4 makes it easier than 15/1 first. 

I haven't looked at the stats, but think it must be easier for a middling team to beat the handicap than a top or bottom side.  Presumably that is why Spurs were smashed?  The difference between 55 and 65 is easier to bridge than the one between 40 and 50. 

I am probably not helping much, but if we do pick one I think we should definitely do it each way. 

[Dubai]

Obv backing the promoted sides has shown a huge profit since premiership started- spurs were smashed because the handicap was out of line compared to other firms. And smashed probably wasn't even a lot of bets bear in mind

[TightEnd]

Vydra at West Brom

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/article/165/8868373/matej-vydra-joins-west-brom

20 goals in the Championship last season, 42 games. Obviously a lower standard of defender

Signed on a season long loan for West Brom this moring from Watford A, sorry, from Udinese


Line is set at 6.5 goals this season

He is also 4/1 top West Brom scorer


Lukaku and his seventeen goals have gone back to Chelseas's bench

Anelka has come in. Anelka has 10 goals in 65 games in the last three seasons combined at Chelsea, Juve and in China. He's 34yo

Shane Long has 16 in 63, 8 goals a season since joining from Reading two years ago

Rosenberg is the third squad striker. No goals in 24 appearances last season

I can't price Vydra at 4-1 against these three. Can you?

and five minutes later :-)

http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/2995/betting/2013/08/13/4183791/betting-special-matej-vydra-can-outscore-long-and-anelka-at-west-?ICID=OP

[redarmi]

il have £1000/400 and u got £1000/250?

I'll have that if redarmi doesn't want to do it..

Otherwise half with you and half with Stu.

Yeah I will split it with Dave if that is still okay (I just saw this).  So you have £125 @ 4/1 MU with me and I have a bottle at 5/2 with you Arsenal top 3.  Is that right?

[tikay]

Vydra at West Brom

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/article/165/8868373/matej-vydra-joins-west-brom

20 goals in the Championship last season, 42 games. Obviously a lower standard of defender

Signed on a season long loan for West Brom this moring from Watford A, sorry, from Udinese


Line is set at 6.5 goals this season

He is also 4/1 top West Brom scorer


Lukaku and his seventeen goals have gone back to Chelseas's bench

Anelka has come in. Anelka has 10 goals in 65 games in the last three seasons combined at Chelsea, Juve and in China. He's 34yo

Shane Long has 16 in 63, 8 goals a season since joining from Reading two years ago

Rosenberg is the third squad striker. No goals in 24 appearances last season

I can't price Vydra at 4-1 against these three. Can you?

and five minutes later :-)

http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/2995/betting/2013/08/13/4183791/betting-special-matej-vydra-can-outscore-long-and-anelka-at-west-?ICID=OP

Well the 4/1 has all gone, except at Stan James & Sky Bet.

Varies from 5/2 to 3/1 elsewhere, which sounds about right.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/west-brom/top-league-goalscorer

[Doobs]

Obv backing the promoted sides has shown a huge profit since premiership started- spurs were smashed because the handicap was out of line compared to other firms. And smashed probably wasn't even a lot of bets bear in mind

I did think the Cardiff bet looked fine, the one the other day at +7 seemed a tougher ask.  Do you know what the average points you need to win the Premiership on handicap is?  I'd take the overs on 90.  

[tikay]

Obv backing the promoted sides has shown a huge profit since premiership started- spurs were smashed because the handicap was out of line compared to other firms. And smashed probably wasn't even a lot of bets bear in mind

I did think the Cardiff bet looked fine, the one the other day at +7 seemed a tougher ask.  Do you know what the average points you need to win the Premiership on handicap is?  I'd take the overs on 90.  

I like that Cardiff bet, too.

Has to be EW though, yes?

[Doobs]

Obv backing the promoted sides has shown a huge profit since premiership started- spurs were smashed because the handicap was out of line compared to other firms. And smashed probably wasn't even a lot of bets bear in mind

I did think the Cardiff bet looked fine, the one the other day at +7 seemed a tougher ask.  Do you know what the average points you need to win the Premiership on handicap is?  I'd take the overs on 90.  

I like that Cardiff bet, too.

Has to be EW though, yes?

Up to Tighty.

[TightEnd]

Obv backing the promoted sides has shown a huge profit since premiership started- spurs were smashed because the handicap was out of line compared to other firms. And smashed probably wasn't even a lot of bets bear in mind

I did think the Cardiff bet looked fine, the one the other day at +7 seemed a tougher ask.  Do you know what the average points you need to win the Premiership on handicap is?  I'd take the overs on 90. 

I like that Cardiff bet, too.

Has to be EW though, yes?

95-96 won it last year. Swansea/West Brom points achieved plus Handicap

I am thinking, because the top is more competiitve this year, that it maybe a bit less this but thats subjective not analysis