Tips for Tikay

[dreenie]

I really really fancy Al Kazeem for the 3:40 @ York Weds, best price from the looks of the local bookmakers atm is 5/4, a couple go 11/10 and evens the rest, already won 3 group 1's, and had Declaration of War behind him last time out that gave little to be desired.

Feel very strongly about this horse, and think 5/4 is a very good price for the competition it has to beat.

I would be opposing Telescope which runs same day, I don't think this is a group horse and looked so ordinary last time out.

Dreenie!

Good to see you here at last.

Al Kaz may well win, & I hope it does, for your sake, because I know that nothing I, or anyone else says, will change your mind, because you are as stubborn as a stubborn bag full of stubborn things.

But......you are just punting. And you will lose all your money, & forever need to withdraw the winnings from the last bet to enable you to bet in the next race. Don't go there!

Al Kaz is almost certainly correctly priced. Which means that the bookmaker has his profit guaranteed.

Imagine theoretically running that race 10,000 times, same horses, same jockeys, same prices, same track & conditions, & having £1 on Al Kaz every single time. After the 10,000 theoretical races, you will have turned your £10,000 into...........£9,000. This is as certain as losing long-term on roulette. The house has an edge. You cannot beat it if you take correct prices. You need prices that are ool, or value, or inside info, or really expert knowledge. Without any of those, you'll lose over time.

Please don't do it. Punish the bookies, don't feed them.

And it matters not one jot, iota or tickle if Al Kaz wins on Wednesday. It changes nothing. Don't follow the herd, find edges.

Our job as punters is to eke out edges - & they DO exist, as the Elders here have taught us all.

You would be mortified if you know how much money bookies make out of regular ice creams. (mug punters). 

Don't be one of them, be one of us. A winner. Truly.
 

Cracking reply Tikay, ty.

I am ready to learn, I have dreamed for so long of how I can beat the bookmakers 😀

[dreenie]

Dreenie, as Officer Doobs says, Mr Power, Mr Hill or one of their friends will be offering some form of money back special on the day, be this Al Kazeem 11/10 and money back if second or one of the others and money back if second to Al Kazeem. Hold fire and then plough in when that offer is announced.

I'm pretty sure Doobs presses F5 all day to find out whether there's a new offer. He will inform Fred and Fred will be pleased.

This thread is full of wizards, to use a Phil Laakism; people who know this stuff inside out. When BadBeat, JoeBeevers, Horseplayer or Doobs tells us to get on a horse (I assume figuratively), there's a reason that follows which we don't necessarily understand but, hopefully, we basically follow. We know if we keep betting them and follow their rules, we will beat the bookies.

As an aside, when Dubai gives us a horse bet, the same applies but a good rule of thumb is to take a nought off his suggested bet or to have a sedative handy. It will be a cracking bet, but it will scare the bejeezus out of you.

Plenty of other wizards about in different sports, pursuits, games and...other stuff.

Glorious fun, this thread.

Great post, ty. 

I'm hooked ☺

[Ironside]

The lucky 15s will still get placed.

ok i remember reading lucky 15s are good cause of the dbl odds on the single but yankees are bad

source of reading this was blondepoker forum
author camel

not sure if there was a caveat in there my memory is going with all these crappy meds they give me

[tikay]

I really really fancy Al Kazeem for the 3:40 @ York Weds, best price from the looks of the local bookmakers atm is 5/4, a couple go 11/10 and evens the rest, already won 3 group 1's, and had Declaration of War behind him last time out that gave little to be desired.

Feel very strongly about this horse, and think 5/4 is a very good price for the competition it has to beat.

I would be opposing Telescope which runs same day, I don't think this is a group horse and looked so ordinary last time out.

Dreenie!

Good to see you here at last.

Al Kaz may well win, & I hope it does, for your sake, because I know that nothing I, or anyone else says, will change your mind, because you are as stubborn as a stubborn bag full of stubborn things.

But......you are just punting. And you will lose all your money, & forever need to withdraw the winnings from the last bet to enable you to bet in the next race. Don't go there!

Al Kaz is almost certainly correctly priced. Which means that the bookmaker has his profit guaranteed.

Imagine theoretically running that race 10,000 times, same horses, same jockeys, same prices, same track & conditions, & having £1 on Al Kaz every single time. After the 10,000 theoretical races, you will have turned your £10,000 into...........£9,000. This is as certain as losing long-term on roulette. The house has an edge. You cannot beat it if you take correct prices. You need prices that are ool, or value, or inside info, or really expert knowledge. Without any of those, you'll lose over time.

Please don't do it. Punish the bookies, don't feed them.

And it matters not one jot, iota or tickle if Al Kaz wins on Wednesday. It changes nothing. Don't follow the herd, find edges.

Our job as punters is to eke out edges - & they DO exist, as the Elders here have taught us all.

You would be mortified if you know how much money bookies make out of regular ice creams. (mug punters). 

Don't be one of them, be one of us. A winner. Truly.
 

Cracking reply Tikay, ty.

I am ready to learn, I have dreamed for so long of how I can beat the bookmakers 😀

You the man. Well, girl.

Will reply later, or in the morning, bit busy tonight.

Stick with us. You gonna be a winner.

[Tal]

The lucky 15s will still get placed.

ok i remember reading lucky 15s are good cause of the dbl odds on the single but yankees are bad

source of reading this was blondepoker forum
author camel

not sure if there was a caveat in there my memory is going with all these crappy meds they give me

Think you have to pick reasonable horses. Gets me every time, that.

[Ironside]

OMG how lucky can i get my price i wanted on the goals market got matched less than 30 seconds before the goal

[BigAdz]

Ironside and Tal, talking value and tipping.......am I in the right place?

[Ironside]

Ironside and Tal, talking value and tipping.......am I in the right place?

i never tipped

and learning value which is the idea behind fred if i recall

you have a problem with that?

[celtic]

Ironside and Tal, talking value and tipping.......am I in the right place?

They're both value at poker. Does that count?

[Tal]

Ironside and Tal, talking value and tipping.......am I in the right place?

Back to the blubbing gooner thread, you!

[BigAdz]

None at all. Just have a little play.

You will fit in well here you sensitive little bunny.

[tikay]

What an absolute joy Man City are to watch when they are firing on all cylinders. They must be a bugger to play against when in the mood, though.

[Tal]

Ironside and Tal, talking value and tipping.......am I in the right place?

They're both value at poker. Does that count?

Think you'll find I cashed in my last comp. Sample size schmample size...

[Ironside]

oh and as a self proclaimed mug punter who bets normally in micro recreational bets who has withdrawn approx £800-1000 from betfair (with a little help alone the way)
i am quite happy with my punts

[horseplayer]

What an absolute joy Man City are to watch when they are firing on all cylinders. They must be a bugger to play against when in the mood, though.

great to have pellegrini over here