Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Obviously we should be having a pretty large bet going Unders on Bales league goals in Spain-
Tempted to just say snap take the 10/11 under 17.5 as looks a gimme with vc but all firms will probably price up once transfer has gone through.

Whats the thinking on this one please?

Genuine question

[Tal]

Who the heck has set a line at 17.5?! (Interrobang ftw)

Is that a case of all the money being on the overs so they've moved the line to split the liability?

He will score goals but ten to fifteen is still an excellent first season in a new country with everything else that comes with it. He's more likely to score fifteen than twenty, surely?

[DungBeetle]

Anyone fancy pitching a spread for Bale league goals?  Seems to me the extreme outlier would the low (i.e. more likely he gets homesick/gets injured and only scores 3 goals than if he bangs in 30 goals.)

[Omm]

 manager of the month, bet Vic have Paul lambert at 33-1 and Stan James have him at 8-1, Pelligrini will probably win it, but does anybody think there might be mileage in a Lambert bet?

Edit, he has just been cut to 16-1.

[TightEnd]

manager of the month, bet Vic have Paul lambert at 33-1 and Stan James have him at 8-1, Pelligrini will probably win it, but does anybody think there might be mileage in a Lambert bet?

Edit, he has just been cut to 16-1.

After the loss last night highly unlikely

He can only get 6 points

Mourinho has 6, may get 9. We hope not

Pellegrini we are hoping gets 9

Mourinho, Pellegrini or Pochettino (Southampton's path to 3 wins looks do-able)


edit Allardyce ref Nico29 posts yesterday

[bobby1]

We have three options really, stick with the bet we have on Cincy at 23/10

We don't have a division bet on Cincy at 23/10. It was discussed but not placed, or at least not confirmed anywhere on the thread

ah, my mistake, got some wires crossed with Tony.

[TightEnd]

We have three options really, stick with the bet we have on Cincy at 23/10

We don't have a division bet on Cincy at 23/10. It was discussed but not placed, or at least not confirmed anywhere on the thread

ah, my mistake, got some wires crossed with Tony.

I like the bet though. Or the alternative of laying Pitt?

[TightEnd]

Rogers has just confimed on Sky that he has two days off after this Test then plays for Middlesex through September

So I will keep that bet live and hope he scores heavily on his return to county cricket

[The Camel]

We have three options really, stick with the bet we have on Cincy at 23/10

We don't have a division bet on Cincy at 23/10. It was discussed but not placed, or at least not confirmed anywhere on the thread

ah, my mistake, got some wires crossed with Tony.

I like the bet though. Or the alternative of laying Pitt?

Like Cincy at 23/10 for the division much more than the AFC bet.

[Dubai]

Just think its super hard to score 18 league goals playing as a winger when you don't take pens and probably only half or less of the free kicks, feel the market always gonna overrate his goal spread than underrate it- It's hard as a centre forward to score 18+ when Ronaldo is in the side let alone a winger due to the fact he scores such a high % of the team goals. I actually think he'l do fine there and Ronaldo will score a bucket load due to Bale being there

[horseplayer]

fair points

having watched Almeria ship 3 against Villareal on monday night the standard has dropped again without doubt and there should be plenty of 6+ scores this season for Madrid.

[TightEnd]

tikay you have a bwin account?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/safety-car

14 safety cars in the last 10 Spa Grand Prix

8 of the 10 races have had a safety car

weather forecast for the weekend is mixed. rain, wet/dry, high speed track = increased chances of safety car

Jonathan Neale of McLaren

"Spa is a fantastic race; the drivers are always excited to get there and we love it as a circuit as well, but it's notoriously difficult.

"The weather forecast that I've seen says that qualifying and the race could well be wet this weekend, so Spa is tricky and I don't think anybody would go to Spa feeling that they were confident. "

bwin 9/10 safety car. I make it more like a 1/2 shot

Whatever you can get on if you agree

[Bad Beat]

 Doubleup...

 I'm a little confused by your posts about 16-20 runner handicaps.

 Obviously the horse I selected yesterday was trading at a tight 12/1 when I suggested backing it at 12/1 each-way and then it drifted quite violently to 16/1. This may have helped you to make an argument. I think it's a little unfair to take one horse and try and say that you are now "debunking" what you presumably consider a myth that each-way in 16-runner handicaps are great bets.

 Can we look at the 3.05 at York today?

 I just went through the process I described yesterday. I looked at the best price on Oddschecker each horse and divided by four. I compared the resultant place price with Betfair's place market and EVERY SINGLE PRICE was an arb.

 Does that not prove there is no need for debunking?

 Obviously I appreciate that you cannot bet "place only" at 1/4 the win prices with bookmakers but the % that you lose taking a few -ev (compared to Betfair's win market) win prices is cancelled out by the massive +ev gains you make vs the place market.


 No bookmakers like taking these bets for obvious reasons.

 I have been working on other stuff and have missed a few prices plus there are some non-runners and at 16 there is a danger of the dreaded 15.

 Despite those reservations I would say that it will be easy, especially with a big low draw bias, to find a couple of rock-solid each-way bets here.

 Reds is of course correct, these kind of bets are pretty easy to find, with just a few short-cuts and you can make mistakes as it's just hard to have a bad bet.

 Top 8 in the open is amazing. It only happened once this year though. Of course we'd like more Supreme Novices Hurdles. There are two 16/17 runner handicaps on one card today though and they'll be more every week.

 
  

[McGlashan]

Bale's definitely not guaranteed a starting spot at Real and Dubai is being polite on the number of free kicks he'll take away from Ronaldo.

[horseplayer]

Bale's definitely not guaranteed a starting spot at Real and Dubai is being polite on the number of free kicks he'll take away from Ronaldo.

I would be amazed if he did not start all games he was available for