Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Bale's definitely not guaranteed a starting spot at Real and Dubai is being polite on the number of free kicks he'll take away from Ronaldo.

Definitely don't agree with this.  They aren't going to put a £95 million player on the bench.

[DungBeetle]

Like Tighty's Safety car bet.

[Doobs]

Morning all

Genuine question for Doobs.

When you are saying that the value is with a certain player in the golf, is that purely a comparison of their best odds when compared to Betfair?

Thanks.

It was just a late night trawl, I am not going to go through the reasoning again lest all the maths spoils the lurkers' day.  I dismissed all the big priced ones, as the market is much weaker in this than in the Majors.

There were 6 or 7 on Paddy Power last night, if anybody wants them off thread.  I guess some of those will have gone.

[Doobs]

Like Tighty's Safety car bet.

Looks a cracking bet to me too.  Love Spa too.

[doubleup]

 Obviously the horse I selected yesterday was trading at a tight 12/1 when I suggested backing it at 12/1 each-way and then it drifted quite violently to 16/1. This may have helped you to make an argument. I think it's a little unfair to take one horse and try and say that you are now "debunking" what you presumably consider a myth that each-way in 16-runner handicaps are great bets.


  

In these races with bookmakers you gain on the place and lose on the win in comparison to betfair.  

I merely calculated how much that gain/loss was for the first 10 in the betting using the betfair prices as a guide to the true probability.  

Of the ten horses four were marginally ev+ and some were considerably ev-.  Your horse was irrelevant to my point and I didn't even know what its betfair price was when I started the initial post and calculations.

Do you disagree with this methodology?  If so, what do you disagree with?  Do you think the betfair prices are all wrong?  Do you think my calculations are wrong?

My argument is that the value in these races is overstated and your analytical skills are your primary reason for success and that someone betting ew blind just because its a 16 runner handicap will probably lose.

[Doobs]

I think we have a free bet with BetFred.   I think Smarty Socks looks a good home for this in the 3.05.  The horse has been a bit unlucky recently and is drawn well.  It looks a good each way bet, but we may lose another runner, and each way is bad for free bets, so on the nose it must be at 12/1.

Whilst in BetFred I noticed they are doing the Hills type offer again.  No harm in covering some bases, as they are best priced on Venus Di Milo at 9/4 in the 15.40 and the Lucky Kristale in the 14.30 at 3/1.  Suggest £25 each.

[JoeBeevers]

tikay you have a bwin account?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/safety-car

14 safety cars in the last 10 Spa Grand Prix

8 of the 10 races have had a safety car

weather forecast for the weekend is mixed. rain, wet/dry, high speed track = increased chances of safety car

Jonathan Neale of McLaren

"Spa is a fantastic race; the drivers are always excited to get there and we love it as a circuit as well, but it's notoriously difficult.

"The weather forecast that I've seen says that qualifying and the race could well be wet this weekend, so Spa is tricky and I don't think anybody would go to Spa feeling that they were confident. "

bwin 9/10 safety car. I make it more like a 1/2 shot

Whatever you can get on if you agree

Arb on Betfair, you can lay 1.81.

[Bad Beat]

"My argument is that the value in these races is overstated and your analytical skills are your primary reason for success and that someone betting ew blind just because its a 16 runner handicap will probably lose".

 That just isn't true. EVERY SINGLE HORSE in the 3.05 is an arb on the place. These prices to place with the fixed odds are often WAY OFF. The amount you lose on the win bet is minimal.

 It would be hard for a spider running across the paper to not land on a winning bet.

 Anyway, I have a busy day with too much to do, and I should be happy if less punters play in these races, so I'll stop trying to convince anyone and shut up.

[doubleup]

The betfair prices in that race are obv always 4 places and the bookies prices might be 3.  You can't compare them like that.  You know that and frankly I'm disappointed that you use it as an argument.

[Bad Beat]

 It is a 16-runner race. Obviously I totally understand that it COULD go 15-runner but it is 16-runner.

 I could just as easily as looked at the 17-runner 4.55. It shows the same thing. Yesterday we looked at a 17-runner race and found the same thing.

 If the fact that sometimes 16-20 runner handicaps sometimes become 15 runners is your argument for why the value in them is a mirage then I am disappointed too.

 Anyway, like I said, I'm busy trying to get bets on and I should be happy that there are people who aren't playing in these races. More value for me.

[Dubai]

Any chance you could let us know where your spider landed?

[Dubai]

Obviously if he multiple landing points that's fine too

[tikay]

I opened my Racing Post, laid it on the carpet, and have set Sammy the Spider to work.

[ripple11]

I opened my Racing Post, laid it on the carpet, and have set Sammy the Spider to work.

....and gets as far as Hurricane Fly

[Spudy]

Does anyone know what the best draw to have is at York in the Ebor? Havent got my racing post to find this info, but I see Ted Veale is drawn 17 on Saturday. It appeared to me that he would most definitely appreciate further, and had a lot left in the tank after his win last night. He has been cut from 14s and is now 8,9,10-1 generally with one company having it at 12s. I cant suggest it is value to the thread at that price without knowing effect draw has, though I am on anyway at 16 from a few weeks back!!