Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

We can double team with Betfred and Hills mobile.  The ground is good to soft, hope that is right and it doesn't get worse.

Shea Shea in the 3.40 is one I have followed for a while to my cost, but today must be the day.  He is 4/1 with both, suggest £25 on with both.

Pavlosk in the 3.05 is 9/4 with Betfred, 2/1 Hills.  Just do the £25 on BetFred.

Simenon in the 2.30 is 2/1 Hills, 7/4 Betfred.  Suggest £25 Hills.

I have doubled up on them all, which might be good.

Hopefully our spider will have gotten us a nice treble at the end of the day. 

I really like Shea Shea but are we ok with the jockey?

He did ok with Our Obsession yesterday.

Fortunately my short term memory is getting bad, so I don't worry about such things. 

[Tal]

Bobby and Tighty are crushing today.

I hope BadBeat is happy with himself.

[horseplayer]

Be  more worried about the ground for shea shea myself likely to drift before the off

Could still win of course but the rain a massive negative on all known form

[edgascoigne]

I like Ryan Harris to be the most successful Australain bowler today at 11/4 BetVictor. Looked threatening last night

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/england-v-australia-%5B5th-test%5D/top-australia-bowler


Our Swann bet is a free bet but can return £132 if it holds on

We are about to lose £110 on Warner and Clarke

A part-cover part-fundamental bet on Harris £40 at 11/4 covers the losses and gives you the other side to Swann if over the next three days the Australians get to bowl twice, as they might if Enland follow on

Lot of logic to this bet. Think it's a reasonable enough spot in its own right, likely c0Ev or a little better.....but the utility provided by decreasing the implied volatility of the Swann bet makes it a must play IMO.

[Bad Beat]

 I got myself about three pages behind on the thread and I missed a horse bet.

 Sorry Adz I hate that bet on Khajally.

 I think Newcastle is a small high so it's badly drawn. I totally take the point about Appleby but that seems to be completely assumed in the price. I generally much prefer down in trip horses to up in trip. It's 0-16 on turf.

 The worst part of all is we bet each-way. Why did we do that? It's a 15-runner handicap. I thought we'd discussed a fair bit this week the benefits of 16-runner handicaps. These are obviously, (as we clearly established), the best races to play each-way in. 15-runner handicaps are the nut worst.

 You would have a good shot of getting 7/4+ a place on Betfair for 1,2,3,4 (there were previously 16 and their market carries on as 1,2,3,4) but Fred has taken 9/5 1,2,3.

 Hate to come in after the bet has been done but there was no time before.



 

[tikay]

I got myself about three pages behind on the thread and I missed a horse bet.

 Sorry Adz I hate that bet on Khajally.

 I think Newcastle is a small high so it's badly drawn. I totally take the point about Appleby but that seems to be completely assumed in the price. I generally much prefer down in trip horses to up in trip. It's 0-16 on turf.

 The worst part of all is we bet each-way. Why did we do that? It's a 15-runner handicap. I thought we'd discussed a fair bit this week the benefits of 16-runner handicaps. These are obviously, (as we clearly established), the best races to play each-way in. 15-runner handicaps are the nut worst.

 You would have a good shot of getting 7/4+ a place on Betfair for 1,2,3,4 (there were previously 16 and their market carries on as 1,2,3,4) but Fred has taken 9/5 1,2,3.

 Hate to come in after the bet has been done but there was no time before.



 

My fault Neil, I just blundered in without thinking. I am dangerous when let loose.

I have no view on the horse's chance, obv, but please note we have QUARTER odds, so 9/4, 1,2,3.

Not good, but less worser.

[tikay]

Just to add, Ladbrokes are still doing there offer as well, Shea Shea is 4's with them if you want to treble up, but they are not the best prices on Pavlosk and Simenon.

Ooh punishing Ladbrokes is more fun.

We are already ON with BetFred & Wm Hills (not updated thread yet, bear with me) - do we want to get on with Ladbrokes, too, then?

[Bad Beat]

 Sorry, you are right, typo by me.

 It'll probably win now obv.

 I find the 4.20 very interesting.

 Normally you might think this isn't an each-way race but there are six of the 13 who are 100/1 or more and I have it as a 5 (possibly 6) runner race.

 You have to respect the Ed Dunlop horse here. Ran pretty well, has a group one entry and his will usually improve.

 I know lots of people felt that the Godolphin horse would come out best of the Goodwood three and it was very green and ran a real eye-catcher. Surely that is in the price though as the horses that have close form are 10/1 and 16/1.

 Channon has not been doing great lately so I was inclined to go with Gerald Butler and Master of the World each-way at 9/1. It does seem a little weak on Betfair though and now Bobby has me thinking.

 generally I think the ground makes the racing way harder today and I'm playing much smaller than I did yesterday (when I went mental).

[BigAdz]

I got myself about three pages behind on the thread and I missed a horse bet.

 Sorry Adz I hate that bet on Khajally.

 I think Newcastle is a small high so it's badly drawn. I totally take the point about Appleby but that seems to be completely assumed in the price. I generally much prefer down in trip horses to up in trip. It's 0-16 on turf.

 The worst part of all is we bet each-way. Why did we do that? It's a 15-runner handicap. I thought we'd discussed a fair bit this week the benefits of 16-runner handicaps. These are obviously, (as we clearly established), the best races to play each-way in. 15-runner handicaps are the nut worst.

 You would have a good shot of getting 7/4+ a place on Betfair for 1,2,3,4 (there were previously 16 and their market carries on as 1,2,3,4) but Fred has taken 9/5 1,2,3.

 Hate to come in after the bet has been done but there was no time before.



 

Not a problem Neil

In fairness there were 16 when I struck the bet, but shit happens.

Maybe I should have put the recommend on the Horserace thread but its a horse I have diligently waited to move stables for ages, and have put it up as a punter rather than a valuemeister/mathematician I happily admit. Im sure the whole thing will fall flat, but I was happy I had found a good spot, regardless of all the other stuff.

Surely once in a while you do those sort of things??? ;o)

EDIT; I did get a bit better....most of it in fact....but its one of those that could win this and we wont see this sort of price for a while.....as said though, any confidence I have has now been shattered, and i am a broken man. If I am found hanging from a Black Belt, I hope you understand the irony......

[tikay]

We can double team with Betfred and Hills mobile.  The ground is good to soft, hope that is right and it doesn't get worse.

Shea Shea in the 3.40 is one I have followed for a while to my cost, but today must be the day.  He is 4/1 with both, suggest £25 on with both.

Pavlosk in the 3.05 is 9/4 with Betfred, 2/1 Hills.  Just do the £25 on BetFred.

Simenon in the 2.30 is 2/1 Hills, 7/4 Betfred.  Suggest £25 Hills.

I have doubled up on them all, which might be good.

Hopefully our spider will have gotten us a nice treble at the end of the day.  

These are ON, Doobs, but not precisely as suggested, as most of the prices are moving around. I think we get BOG, though, so hopefully not too much damage done. I went with "best price" between BetFred & Wm Hill.

We have FOUR bets in total there.

2.30 York, SIMENON, £25 win @ 7/4, Wm Hill. MONEY BACK AS FREE BET IF 2nd

3.05 York, PAVLOSK, £25 win @ 2/1, BetFred. MONEY BACK AS FREE BET IF 2nd

3.40 York, SHEA SHEA, £25 win @ 4/1, BetFred, MONEY BACK AS FREE BET IF 2nd

3.40 York, ShEA SHEA, £25 win @ 4/1, Wm Hill, MONEY BACK AS FREE BET IF 2nd


ON


23/08/2013 10:31:57

163/
175

W:25.00

Single

York 15:40/Outright Betting

Shea Shea

4/1

£25.00

23/08/2013 10:31:57

163/
176

W:25.00

Single

York 15:05/Outright Betting

Pavlosk

2/1

£25.00

 ____



23 Aug 13 / 10:28

Stake

3:40 York – Shea Shea @ Guaranteed Price (4/1)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000538/F

23 Aug 13 / 10:28

Stake

2:30 York – Simenon @ Guaranteed Price (7/4)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000539/F

 

[tikay]

Sorry, you are right, typo by me.

 It'll probably win now obv.

 I find the 4.20 very interesting.

 Normally you might think this isn't an each-way race but there are six of the 13 who are 100/1 or more and I have it as a 5 (possibly 6) runner race.

 You have to respect the Ed Dunlop horse here. Ran pretty well, has a group one entry and his will usually improve.

 I know lots of people felt that the Godolphin horse would come out best of the Goodwood three and it was very green and ran a real eye-catcher. Surely that is in the price though as the horses that have close form are 10/1 and 16/1.

 Channon has not been doing great lately so I was inclined to go with Gerald Butler and Master of the World each-way at 9/1. It does seem a little weak on Betfair though and now Bobby has me thinking.

 generally I think the ground makes the racing way harder today and I'm playing much smaller than I did yesterday (when I went mental).

Thanks Neil.

When you have concluded your thinking, & your spider has come to rest, let us know please.

As you note, Bobby has already put up one in the same race.

[doubleup]

Sorry, you are right, typo by me.

 It'll probably win now obv.

 I find the 4.20 very interesting.

 Normally you might think this isn't an each-way race but there are six of the 13 who are 100/1 or more and I have it as a 5 (possibly 6) runner race.

 You have to respect the Ed Dunlop horse here. Ran pretty well, has a group one entry and his will usually improve.

 I know lots of people felt that the Godolphin horse would come out best of the Goodwood three and it was very green and ran a real eye-catcher. Surely that is in the price though as the horses that have close form are 10/1 and 16/1.

 Channon has not been doing great lately so I was inclined to go with Gerald Butler and Master of the World each-way at 9/1. It does seem a little weak on Betfair though and now Bobby has me thinking.

 generally I think the ground makes the racing way harder today and I'm playing much smaller than I did yesterday (when I went mental).

hmmm but none of these are arbs on the exchanges which I though was the arbiter in these matters

[Spudy]

Is the thread on Ted veale tomorrow? Now 8-9s everywhere, I expect it to contract a little further by tomorrow.

[malt vinegar]

brilliant pictures from tighty this morning haha

was trying to figure out who the woman was then the penny finally dropped

bet365 are doing the free £50 inplay bet again united vs chelsea on monday for those interested

[tikay]

Is the thread on Ted veale tomorrow? Now 8-9s everywhere, I expect it to contract a little further by tomorrow.

No, not yet Spudy, for the reasons I explained yesterday, which were, if I recall......

1) We missed as high as 16/1, so 9/1 hurts a bit.

2) I was hoping for some feedback from the horse experts.

In addition, don't forget, if we wait until tomorrow, there will DEFINITELY be "Offers", which may influence the decision, & be better than is available today. We missed 16/1, it is 9/1 now, so if it drops another point, relatively, we have not missed too much.  

If we get some positive feedback, we'll invest. Please understand I know nothing of the horse's chance whatsoever.

Bear in mind also the going has changed considerably.