Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Might be worth taking a bet in the 4.20 at York today Tony, right people seem to like Derbyshire here, my spidey sensei ( see what I did there) tells me it is a nice looking each way race so rec 20 each way at 4/1.

Thanks Phil.

Enjoy Filey!

We have £20 EW @ 4/1, BetFred, Derbyshire, 4.20 York.

ON


23/08/2013 09:56:12

162/
174

W:40.00 S:40.00

Single

York 16:20/Outright Betting

Derbyshire

4/1

£80.00

[horseplayer]

Is the thread on Ted veale tomorrow? Now 8-9s everywhere, I expect it to contract a little further by tomorrow.

No, not yet Spudy, for the reasons I explained yesterday, which were, if I recall......

1) We missed as high as 16/1, so 9/1 hurts a bit.

2) I was hoping for some feedback from the horse experts.

In addition, don't forget, if we wait until tomorrow, there will DEFINITELY be "Offers", which may influence the decision, & be better than is available today. We missed 16/1, it is 9/1 now, so if it drops another point, relatively, we have not missed too much.  

If we get some positive feedback, we'll invest. Please understand I know nothing of the horse's chance whatsoever.

Bear in mind also the going has changed considerably.

The horse itself looks solid enough. However cant see it starting shorter than it is now, some much more unexposed "sexy" horses near the top of the betting (Hugh has just put up Tiger Cliff so that will shorten all day)

If fred wants to back wait until tommorow, worse case same price as available now...

[tikay]

Is the thread on Ted veale tomorrow? Now 8-9s everywhere, I expect it to contract a little further by tomorrow.

No, not yet Spudy, for the reasons I explained yesterday, which were, if I recall......

1) We missed as high as 16/1, so 9/1 hurts a bit.

2) I was hoping for some feedback from the horse experts.

In addition, don't forget, if we wait until tomorrow, there will DEFINITELY be "Offers", which may influence the decision, & be better than is available today. We missed 16/1, it is 9/1 now, so if it drops another point, relatively, we have not missed too much.  

If we get some positive feedback, we'll invest. Please understand I know nothing of the horse's chance whatsoever.

Bear in mind also the going has changed considerably.

The horse itself looks solid enough. However cant see it starting shorter than it is now, some much more unexposed "sexy" horses near the top of the betting (Hugh has just put up Tiger Cliff so that will shorten all day)

If fred wants to back wait until tommorow, worse case same price as available now...

PLUS there will be "Offers" tomorrow on the Ebor.

A 9/1 winner would be lovely, of course, but if it was 16/1 a few days ago, & we got on at 9/1, & it got beat, the feel-good would be pretty bad....

[TightEnd]

We can double team with Betfred and Hills mobile.  The ground is good to soft, hope that is right and it doesn't get worse.

Shea Shea in the 3.40 is one I have followed for a while to my cost, but today must be the day.  He is 4/1 with both, suggest £25 on with both.

Pavlosk in the 3.05 is 9/4 with Betfred, 2/1 Hills.  Just do the £25 on BetFred.

Simenon in the 2.30 is 2/1 Hills, 7/4 Betfred.  Suggest £25 Hills.

I have doubled up on them all, which might be good.

Hopefully our spider will have gotten us a nice treble at the end of the day. 

These are ON, Doobs, but not precisely as suggested, as most of the prices are moving around. I think we get BOG, though, so hopefully not too much damage done. I went with "best price" between BetFred & Wm Hill.

We have FIVE bets in total there.

2.30 York, SIMENON, £25 win @ 7/4, Wm Hill. MONEY BACK AS FREE BET IF 2nd

3.05 York, PAVLOSK, £25 win @ 2/1, BetFred. MONEY BACK AS FREE BET IF 2nd

3.40 York, SHEA SHEA, £25 win @ 4/1, BetFred, MONEY BACK AS FREE BET IF 2nd

3.40 York, ShEA SHEA, £25 win @ 4/1, Wm Hill, MONEY BACK AS FREE BET IF 2nd


ON


23/08/2013 10:31:57

163/
175

W:25.00

Single

York 15:40/Outright Betting

Shea Shea

4/1

£25.00

23/08/2013 10:31:57

163/
176

W:25.00

Single

York 15:05/Outright Betting

Pavlosk

2/1

£25.00

 ____



23 Aug 13 / 10:28

Stake

3:40 York – Shea Shea @ Guaranteed Price (4/1)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000538/F

23 Aug 13 / 10:28

Stake

2:30 York – Simenon @ Guaranteed Price (7/4)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000539/F

 

sorry, admin monkey here

4 bets listed but you say we have 5?

[tikay]

Typo ( by the spider) Tighty, sorry. Now edited.

FOUR bets.

[TightEnd]

e/w terms for Derbyshire 1/4 1,2,3, please?

[TightEnd]

Talking to Keith in Galway I know hes on them outright for the Division but can he /anybody give a good reason why Wolves arent a Max bet tonight ?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/wolverhampton-v-crawley/winner

7 -10 best price  (bet 365 ,Hills Coral  and VC)  worse price 4 -6 ( less commision) on betfair

Don't underestimate Crawley. One very good judge I know is on them e/w for the division at fancy prices

Of course Wolves will be favourites, but 7/10 or so is another of these examples where the bookie is getting the best of it in the football leagues, imo

Need a very very good reason to back anything other than marginal odds on shots in these divisions

[tikay]

Talking to Keith in Galway I know hes on them outright for the Division but can he /anybody give a good reason why Wolves arent a Max bet tonight ?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/wolverhampton-v-crawley/winner

7 -10 best price  (bet 365 ,Hills Coral  and VC)  worse price 4 -6 ( less commision) on betfair

I have no view on the game Fraser, except that the price looks about right to me. Part of the perception here is historically, we think "Wolves, BIG team & Crawley non-League" but a lot of wise judges have backed Crawley for Promotion this season.

More generally, though, even though we are betting bigger these days, I said a few weeks ago that we need to go steady on football matches for the first month or so of the season, until the results settle down a bit. Don't mind £100 or £150 on "season" bets, but for individual matches, I'll be holding off until September I think, & sticking to between £20 & £50 a time.

[tikay]

e/w terms for Derbyshire 1/4 1,2,3, please?

Bugger, I'll remember to include such info one of therse days, sorry.

Generally speaking, assume one fifth 1,2,3 unless I state otherwise.

In this case, one fifth, 1,2.3.

[tikay]

Talking to Keith in Galway I know hes on them outright for the Division but can he /anybody give a good reason why Wolves arent a Max bet tonight ?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/wolverhampton-v-crawley/winner

7 -10 best price  (bet 365 ,Hills Coral  and VC)  worse price 4 -6 ( less commision) on betfair

Don't underestimate Crawley. One very good judge I know is on them e/w for the division at fancy prices

Of course Wolves will be favourites, but 7/10 or so is another of these examples where the bookie is getting the best of it in the football leagues, imo

Need a very very good reason to back anything other than marginal odds on shots in these divisions

Ok cheers..Rich and Tony

Interested in views cause I know a few guys that have gone in big..I guess its a case of how good Crawley are compared to an ex championship side
Still be interested in Camels view

BOOM!

That was my point. People still view Wolves as a Championship Team, & Crawley as minnows. That was yesterday though.

Wolves don't even have an Airport close to the ground. Crawley have Gatwick. Must count for something. 

[Omm]

Question for Neil/ Doobs/Horse

Arantes at goodwood 5:40 is as low as 16-1 with b365, sky and hills, 39 on betfair but 100-1 with Betfred and Totesport, any mileage in this?

[DungBeetle]

Talking to Keith in Galway I know hes on them outright for the Division but can he /anybody give a good reason why Wolves arent a Max bet tonight ?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/wolverhampton-v-crawley/winner

7 -10 best price  (bet 365 ,Hills Coral  and VC)  worse price 4 -6 ( less commision) on betfair

I have no view on the game Fraser, except that the price looks about right to me. Part of the perception here is historically, we think "Wolves, BIG team & Crawley non-League" but a lot of wise judges have backed Crawley for Promotion this season.

More generally, though, even though we are betting bigger these days, I said a few weeks ago that we need to go steady on football matches for the first month or so of the season, until the results settle down a bit. Don't mind £100 or £150 on "season" bets, but for individual matches, I'll be holding off until September I think, & sticking to between £20 & £50 a time.

I think someone mentioned it earlier in the week, but I'm more interested in Colchester at home to Carlisle at a bigger price, given that Carlisle look utterly in disarray and have been getting thumped week in week out?

[tikay]

Afternoon Tony

Colchester v Carlisle   On Friday night is screaming Value to me  Colchester are  5/6 at coral to win the match

Sheff Utd 1-1 Colchester   
Colchester 1-0 Port Vale
Gillingham 0-1 Colchester


Where Carlisle are in big trouble at the moment

Carlisle 0-4 Coventry
Bradford 4-0 Carlisle
Carlisle 1-5 Leyton Orient

i have even taken the -1 at 2\1 and -2 at 11\2

BUMPED

Mr Dung just reminded me of this.


Currently 4/5.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/colchester-v-carlisle/winner

[DungBeetle]

In my book small stakes on the (-1) and (-2) is the way to go on the fixed odds and hope they implode again.  It's rare you see a team's heads drop so much as soon as they go behind.

[TightEnd]

Thread has £30 at 5/6 Colchester, Line 194 of the spreadsheet, placed earlier in the week