Tips for Tikay

[TheDazzler]

2 + 2 may equal 5 here but I've been thinking.

We all know Wayne Rooney wants out of United. Chelsea want him but United don't want to sell to Chelsea.
United want a midfield playmaker. Chelsea have about 20 of those but don't really want to sell any to United.

Chelsea just bought Willian. Yet ANOTHER midfielder. So, one in, one out? According to Mourinho, that's the way it works.
"If someone comes, someone leaves," he said recently. "Do we have to sell? Probably not. I don't like to work with big squads, I like small squads."
When Chelsea first made thier Rooney interest apparent, there were reports that it was cash and players, Mata being one. Chelsea vehemently denied this.
But apparently Spurs are now interested in Mata. Huh? That's a lot of smoke if there isn't a fire. Mata is not Mourinhos Special One.

Even though Mourinho said about Mata;
"He's a player we all like and want to keep. We want more quality, not less. He's not a player we want to lose"
it's seems clear that Mourinho and Mata are not a perfect mix and Mourinho has brought in plenty of players that can play that Mata role.


Rooney is now useless to United but strengthens their rivals Chelsea. Mata may now be useless to Chelsea but strengthens United.
So what if the reported original Chelsea offer for Rooney was more or less true? I think it was. I think Rooney is going to Chelsea and Mata is going to United.
It's a good fit for both sides and makes Arsenal and Man City sick.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/juan-mata/club-after-summer-transfer-window
Not really a tip for Fred, just thinking out loud.

[claypole]

2 + 2 may equal 5 here but I've been thinking.

We all know Wayne Rooney wants out of United. Chelsea want him but United don't want to sell to Chelsea.
United want a midfield playmaker. Chelsea have about 20 of those but don't really want to sell any to United.

Chelsea just bought Willian. Yet ANOTHER midfielder. So, one in, one out? According to Mourinho, that's the way it works.
"If someone comes, someone leaves," he said recently. "Do we have to sell? Probably not. I don't like to work with big squads, I like small squads."
When Chelsea first made thier Rooney interest apparent, there were reports that it was cash and players, Mata being one. Chelsea vehemently denied this.
But apparently Spurs are now interested in Mata. Huh? That's a lot of smoke if there isn't a fire. Mata is not Mourinhos Special One.

Even though Mourinho said about Mata;
"He's a player we all like and want to keep. We want more quality, not less. He's not a player we want to lose"
it's seems clear that Mourinho and Mata are not a perfect mix and Mourinho has brought in plenty of players that can play that Mata role.


Rooney is now useless to United but strengthens their rivals Chelsea. Mata may now be useless to Chelsea but strengthens United.
So what if the reported original Chelsea offer for Rooney was more or less true? I think it was. I think Rooney is going to Chelsea and Mata is going to United.
It's a good fit for both sides and makes Arsenal and Man City sick.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/juan-mata/club-after-summer-transfer-window
Not really a tip for Fred, just thinking out loud.

I have had same conversation with a hew friends - I think this is completely logical, the problem is ascertaining whether 9/2 is value.  I still can't quite press the button however Chelseas midfiled options are starting to look ridiculous and he sees Rooney as missing piece of the puzzle.  I wouldn't put anyone of a small bet a 9/2

[Marky147]

2 + 2 may equal 5 here but I've been thinking.

We all know Wayne Rooney wants out of United. Chelsea want him but United don't want to sell to Chelsea.
United want a midfield playmaker. Chelsea have about 20 of those but don't really want to sell any to United.

Chelsea just bought Willian. Yet ANOTHER midfielder. So, one in, one out? According to Mourinho, that's the way it works.
"If someone comes, someone leaves," he said recently. "Do we have to sell? Probably not. I don't like to work with big squads, I like small squads."
When Chelsea first made thier Rooney interest apparent, there were reports that it was cash and players, Mata being one. Chelsea vehemently denied this.
But apparently Spurs are now interested in Mata. Huh? That's a lot of smoke if there isn't a fire. Mata is not Mourinhos Special One.

Even though Mourinho said about Mata;
"He's a player we all like and want to keep. We want more quality, not less. He's not a player we want to lose"
it's seems clear that Mourinho and Mata are not a perfect mix and Mourinho has brought in plenty of players that can play that Mata role.


Rooney is now useless to United but strengthens their rivals Chelsea. Mata may now be useless to Chelsea but strengthens United.
So what if the reported original Chelsea offer for Rooney was more or less true? I think it was. I think Rooney is going to Chelsea and Mata is going to United.
It's a good fit for both sides and makes Arsenal and Man City sick.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/juan-mata/club-after-summer-transfer-window
Not really a tip for Fred, just thinking out loud.

I have had same conversation with a hew friends - I think this is completely logical, the problem is ascertaining whether 9/2 is value.  I still can't quite press the button however Chelseas midfiled options are starting to look ridiculous and he sees Rooney as missing piece of the puzzle.  I wouldn't put anyone of a small bet a 9/2

I managed to nick some 5/1 with Sky oioi!!

They allowed me a massive £12.50

[Tal]

Sky Sources are reporting two bids for Bale, Real Madrid and one other, this morning

Could be a fun week

Rooney and £60m

Really, is that the speculation?

Isn't it all speculation? But yes speculation, just what ive seen from various sources, so I'm just as bad for fuelling the fire I guess!

It's just Levy at his best. There may be one buyer, there may be two, but if there is only one then Levy will make sure the one buyer thinks its a competition. Count your fingers after you shake his hand stuff.

This. In short, this.

In Levy we trust.

There is only one other club Bale could conceivably go to. A club in the champions league, with trophy potential every year, in a strong league, can pay him a huge wage, make him a superstar, play him regularly but not essentially so he can get needed rest, in a place he could move the family and not an immediate rival.

PSG and Monaco are in a rubbish league, the German clubs don't need his style of player, Barca don't need him, we won't sell to Chelsea (especially after the last week), we wouldn't sell to Arsenal if they offered to turn their ground into an actual library.

There is only one other possibility: United.

But Levy charges an uplift to United and gets incredible deals for his players.

He's going to Real, though. No doubt about that. Marca and Real have been playing silly beggars for the last few days with saying they have put forward two different bids and the club shop having Bale 11 shirts. Levy holds the ace and, rightly, a reminder of this has been submitted.

[Spudy]

Rooney plus 60 mil, would Rooney agree to going to Spurs? Does he get a say?

[Tal]

Rooney plus 60 mil, would Rooney agree to going to Spurs? Does he get a say?

Of course he gets a say. And a nice flat in London.

The plus player deals will be a problem for us because of a lack of Champions League football, but Rooney would be the main man at Spurs at a time where his ego seems to be weather beaten a little.

Not happening, though. Bale will be, as Marca say, in white soon.

[Spudy]

Nothings certain, Man U could well spring a surprise. Im not one to get involved in next club markets though.

[a.sparrow]

Fred has a little interest in the upcoming 4:50 at Epsom on Xinbama, we are on at 16/1 (with a 10p rule 4) and the current best priced of 12/1 (14 with 888 if they count?) Small nibbles on betfair with a current price of 14.5.

[Doobs]

Thanks, doobs. I would like you to show me the method on that, at your leisure of course.


Sandy/anyone, where is the tipster filter on the spreadsheet?

** THE WHOLE ISSUE CENTRES AROUND STAKES BEING NON-RETURNABLE ON FREE BETS **

Imagine you have a £100 free bet.

For the sake of argument imagine the odds are 'true'.....

£100 @ 1/2 will net you £50 66.67% of the time, nothing 33.33% of the time, for an implied value of £33.33.

£100 @ 9/1 will net you £900 10% of the time, nothing 90% of the time, for an implied value of £90.



It's convoluted by the fact that (a) things are generally priced closer to the 'true' price at the shorter end of the market and (b) with longer priced selections it can take you longer to see a return and you feel like you're just p1ssing them up the wall......but in essence you want to look for something at a decent price that is close to the 'true price' - the best (easily accessible and comprehensible) guide is a liquid exchange market. Decent racing is good (especially when you add in BOG) and correct score markets can work well too amongst others.

That's a lot simpler than I expected.

This isn't a free bet per se, though. Or is it?

Yeah it still holds.

Let's say you find a 1/2 shot in play and have a 'risk free' ton at it.... 2/3 of the time you win £50, the other 1/3 you break even --> Overall positive expectation of £33.33

If you punt a 9/1 shot in play with a 'risk free' ton.... 1/10 of the time you win £900, the other 9/10 you break even --> Overall positive expectation of £90

Same difference

Morning.  Not sure of Fred can get on with B365?

Re-re-re-bumped.

FWIW Bet365 are top priced the draw, which I think should be bet one.  They aren't great on the first goalscorer markets, they are biggest on Torres and Hazard, but a couple of points below Betfair on both.  Going out now.

[Ironside]

Fred has a little interest in the upcoming 4:50 at Epsom on Xinbama, we are on at 16/1 (with a 10p rule 4) and the current best priced of 12/1 (14 with 888 if they count?) Small nibbles on betfair with a current price of 14.5.

I have gone big on this 2 x £5 ew bets one at15.0 another at 13.0 not sure what rule 4 is and how it effects the prices but got BOG on both bets

[Spudy]

Fred has a little interest in the upcoming 4:50 at Epsom on Xinbama, we are on at 16/1 (with a 10p rule 4) and the current best priced of 12/1 (14 with 888 if they count?) Small nibbles on betfair with a current price of 14.5.

Im in for a small sum gl!

[a.sparrow]

A rule 4 is  a deduction on the original price due to a horse being withdrawn, if you bet it before 9.22 this morning then it won't apply though as thats the time of the withdrawal.  Drifting right now on betfair to 18, 14/1 the majoirty of bookies. fav is still very strong in the market.  Now out to 20 on betfair, not too worried with those kind of drifts on longish priced horses as the money comes for the favourites in the market.  Hopefully it runs a good race, i don't like the pressure of other peoples money on bets i've come across, however it wasn't rubbished by the elders so i dont think it can be too bad whatever happens at that price.

[Ironside]

sorry 2x 2.50 ew bets so £10 in total

[Ironside]

ah well no pace at the end

[a.sparrow]

Absolutley no where, sorry guys!  It got off to a decent start to my eyes, Chompy said it would be good to get the rail in the lead, it got the rail but was 3rd, and seemed to be going well enough until it had had nothing at all and possibly finished last. I don't know if that was due to the raise in class or it has finished its winning now with the handicapper back in control or not. Apologies.