Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

grats fred and draw backers.

Did u get the full £50 free on the no goal scorer market marky?

Sadly not - Restricted to £10 @ 10/1. Plus £50 @ 12/5 on the Draw.

Happy days.

The limits on the draw would have been much bigger than first goalscorer in running.

You should have have the no goalscorer bet pre match and draw bet in running.

Aftermining I know - but worth remembering for next time they do this great offer.

He didn't know he was going to be restricted until the match started.  

The no goal scorer bet was a margin below the best Betfair price (I remember looking at the correct score/first goalscorer prices and none looked attractive to me).   So I think he loses a tenner or so vs Betfair pre match then could still get restricted to a tenner max win in play.  

I think the best strategy from now on for Tikay may well ve the classic donkey free bet strategy.  ie just double up on the draw or similar.

10 minutes after Camel's first post, I say we should do something different in future, later I say what happened tonight wasn't ideal. 

Nowhere have I said we didn't make a mistake tonight, just because I didn't say the exact words "we made a mistake here", doesn't mean I didn't think we made one.  We clearly made a mistake.  We will learn by doing something different next time with thread bets.  If I'd realised the corners bet was going to be so badly restricted, I'd have said do something else with the free bet, but the first bet was clearly fine.

Now can we get on with celebrating the £50 we had on the draw at 12/5 and the hundo Tikay made on the no goalscorer bet.

I know we could have made better bets, but +£220 isn't so bad.

 Cheers.

I only think the first bad was a bad one if

1. We are restricted

2. We want to bet on a market like first goalscorer where the limits are always smaller than the outright match winner.

We should have had the bets the other way round if 1 and 2 are applicable.

In running limits will always be smaller than pre match limits - so if restricted we should be betting on the more obscure markets pre match and the big markets in running.

Frankly I still half think I'm being whooshed about no one understanding their restrictions policy.

I also don't understand this comment you made:

"But your new strategy isn't the best either"

Isn't my new strategy the same as yours? Except I am saying just back the team you think will win and you're saying back the price which is nearest the Betfair price?

[BigAdz]

Blimey. Four pages since I dozed off.

No matter lads. It's a nut best result for non Manure/Chelski fans, and a decent payout because of a result that at start of the day was probably on very few minds.

Like a mighty Warrior back from some far flung battle, welcome back Camel.

[Doobs]

grats fred and draw backers.

Did u get the full £50 free on the no goal scorer market marky?

Sadly not - Restricted to £10 @ 10/1. Plus £50 @ 12/5 on the Draw.

Happy days.

The limits on the draw would have been much bigger than first goalscorer in running.

You should have have the no goalscorer bet pre match and draw bet in running.

Aftermining I know - but worth remembering for next time they do this great offer.

He didn't know he was going to be restricted until the match started.  

The no goal scorer bet was a margin below the best Betfair price (I remember looking at the correct score/first goalscorer prices and none looked attractive to me).   So I think he loses a tenner or so vs Betfair pre match then could still get restricted to a tenner max win in play.  

I think the best strategy from now on for Tikay may well ve the classic donkey free bet strategy.  ie just double up on the draw or similar.

10 minutes after Camel's first post, I say we should do something different in future, later I say what happened tonight wasn't ideal. 

Nowhere have I said we didn't make a mistake tonight, just because I didn't say the exact words "we made a mistake here", doesn't mean I didn't think we made one.  We clearly made a mistake.  We will learn by doing something different next time with thread bets.  If I'd realised the corners bet was going to be so badly restricted, I'd have said do something else with the free bet, but the first bet was clearly fine.

Now can we get on with celebrating the £50 we had on the draw at 12/5 and the hundo Tikay made on the no goalscorer bet.

I know we could have made better bets, but +£220 isn't so bad.

 Cheers.

I only think the first bad was a bad one if

1. We are restricted

2. We want to bet on a market like first goalscorer where the limits are always smaller than the outright match winner.

We should have had the bets the other way round if 1 and 2 are applicable.

In running limits will always be smaller than pre match limits - so if restricted we should be betting on the more obscure markets pre match and the big markets in running.

Frankly I still half think I'm being whooshed about no one understanding their restrictions policy.

I also don't understand this comment you made:

"But your new strategy isn't the best either"

Isn't my new strategy the same as yours? Except I am saying just back the team you think will win and you're saying back the price which is nearest the Betfair price?

The first bet on the draw was good, and better than no goalscorer.  The 2nd free bet on no goalscorer or corners was a mistake.  The 2nd bet should have been on draw, Chelsea or Man U.

I have placed maybe 2 previous in running football bets lifetime at bet365, and have never had a restriction, so was never go to know in advance what their in running market limits were, or have any idea how Tony was limited.  If I had known what they were, I would have suggested something different.  

When I first posted you suggested we should have bet no goalscorer first, and that was the new strategy I was referring to in my post 10 or so minutes after it.  Obviously your later strategy is now different from the one you posted straight after the game.  

You can go back and read our posts around 10pm to see this.  

Can we move on?  

[The Camel]

grats fred and draw backers.

Did u get the full £50 free on the no goal scorer market marky?

Sadly not - Restricted to £10 @ 10/1. Plus £50 @ 12/5 on the Draw.

Happy days.

The limits on the draw would have been much bigger than first goalscorer in running.

You should have have the no goalscorer bet pre match and draw bet in running.

Aftermining I know - but worth remembering for next time they do this great offer.

He didn't know he was going to be restricted until the match started.  

The no goal scorer bet was a margin below the best Betfair price (I remember looking at the correct score/first goalscorer prices and none looked attractive to me).   So I think he loses a tenner or so vs Betfair pre match then could still get restricted to a tenner max win in play.  

I think the best strategy from now on for Tikay may well ve the classic donkey free bet strategy.  ie just double up on the draw or similar.

10 minutes after Camel's first post, I say we should do something different in future, later I say what happened tonight wasn't ideal.  

Nowhere have I said we didn't make a mistake tonight, just because I didn't say the exact words "we made a mistake here", doesn't mean I didn't think we made one.  We clearly made a mistake.  We will learn by doing something different next time with thread bets.  If I'd realised the corners bet was going to be so badly restricted, I'd have said do something else with the free bet, but the first bet was clearly fine.

Now can we get on with celebrating the £50 we had on the draw at 12/5 and the hundo Tikay made on the no goalscorer bet.

I know we could have made better bets, but +£220 isn't so bad.

 Cheers.

I only think the first bad was a bad one if

1. We are restricted

2. We want to bet on a market like first goalscorer where the limits are always smaller than the outright match winner.

We should have had the bets the other way round if 1 and 2 are applicable.

In running limits will always be smaller than pre match limits - so if restricted we should be betting on the more obscure markets pre match and the big markets in running.

Frankly I still half think I'm being whooshed about no one understanding their restrictions policy.

I also don't understand this comment you made:

"But your new strategy isn't the best either"

Isn't my new strategy the same as yours? Except I am saying just back the team you think will win and you're saying back the price which is nearest the Betfair price?

The first bet on the draw was good, and better than no goalscorer.  The 2nd free bet on no goalscorer or corners was a mistake.  The 2nd bet should have been on draw, Chelsea or Man U.

I have placed maybe 2 previous in running football bets lifetime at bet365, and have never had a restriction, so was never go to know in advance what their in running market limits were, or have any idea how Tony was limited.  If I had known what they were, I would have suggested something different.  

When I first posted you suggested we should have bet no goalscorer first, and that was the new strategy I was referring to in my post 10 or so minutes after it.  Obviously your later strategy is now different from the one you posted straight after the game.  

You can go back and read our posts around 10pm to see this.  

Can we move on?  

I only said that we should have the first goalscorer bet pre match because we could have had nearer £50 on it (first goalscorer limits will be double prematch compared to in running I guess) and then had the same amount (free) in running.

It wasn't a strategy, it was just a way of getting maximum value for the free bet for a restricted punter.

From now on - whenever they make this offer, take it as read the in running part should always be on match winner - because that is the only market he'll get anywhere near £50 on.

[Evilpengwinz]

At Spa it was dry. On lap 28 of 44 four cars approached the bus stop in close proximity and one was Maldonado. This looked encouraging. Guiteirrez made a mistake, Maldonado mis-judged the braking and harpooned Di Resta onto the kerb. "Yes!" I exclaimed to my living room.  I waited, and then saw the picture of the tow truck lifting Di Resta's car away a couple of minutes later. That was as close as we got to a safety car for -£100, in a bet we took at 10/11 and went off 1/2

Regarding Safety Car bets,

Any value in this market is going to come from backing no safety car, IMO.

Why?

1) DRS means drivers are able to overtake later in the race, so you don't get the same amount of desperate "I need to get ahead of X on the first lap or I'll be stuck here until the first pit stop and my strategy will be screwed". It was standard before DRS to see bodywork all over the place at the 1st corner at tracks like Sepang and Nurburgring with a particularly difficult first few corners to get through cleanly when everyone was desperate to make as many positions as possible in the first few corners and not end up in a "Trulli Train". These days, there's far fewer 1st lap accidents because if you don't get past on the first lap, as long as you stay close enough to the car in front you can just wait until lap 3 when DRS is activated, so you don't need to take as many risks on the first lap.

You still get the occasional 1st lap incident, like Grosjean at Spa last year, and Monza the year before, but it's nowhere near as common to see a first lap SC at any track as it used to be in the early-mid 2000s.


2) Pirelli tyres. Remember Hamilton's "I can't go any slower!" radio message in Spain this year? F1 in 2013 is about looking after tyres, engine temperatures, gearboxes, and anything else you can think of. The drivers are very rarely pushing the car to the limit in 2013. Therefore, accidents caused by driver error/pushing too hard, such as these, are now very few and far between as the drivers are so often driving well within the limits of their ability.







Out of all the circuits on the calendar, Canada is probably the best example of these points - History will say "There's loads of crashes and Safety Cars here because the barriers are so close to the track", but there's not been a Safety Car there in a dry race since 2008 (No race in 2009, wet race in 2011).

===

We've had Safety Cars at 3 races so far this year - Monaco (Standard), Silverstone (Dodgy Pirellis and Vettel breaking down on the pit straight) and Nurburgring (Broken down car started rolling backwards down a hill towards oncoming traffic). There's not been a SC for a 1st lap accident so far this year.

The first 2 chicanes at Monza are notoriously tricky on the first lap, but for all the talk of a 1st lap accident every year, there's actually very few Safety Cars due to 1st lap accidents at Monza - since the first chicane was reprofiled in 2000, only in 2000 and 2011 has a first lap safety car occurred.





For the reasons above, I think it's very unlikely we'll see a SC here, and all the usual talk of "There could be a first lap accident" should mean there's some decent prices out there. Obviously need to wait until closer to the race for weather forecasts and for the market to appear, and I'll quote this post closer to the race as a reminder.

Nothing on Oddschecker yet, but I reckon somewhere around 2/5 or 4/9 would be the right price for no safety car here, anything better than that is value IMO, and how much you should put on no safety car depends how much better the price is

[tikay]

Hi Andy (Evilpengwinz),

Nice bit of research there, & an exhaustive report, You Tube vids & all, well done & thank you.

Will I see you in Newcastle (SPT) next weekend?

[Evilpengwinz]

Hi Andy (Evilpengwinz),

Nice bit of research there, & an exhaustive report, You Tube vids & all, well done & thank you.

Will I see you in Newcastle (SPT) next weekend?

Cheers,

Should probably add that my entire post assumes that the race is dry.

Sadly won't be at SPT unless I bink the Premier League MVP thingy, as the train fare and hotel costs are ridiculous and I'm a nit. Hoping to be at the final though, just waiting for the buy-in and side events to be announced.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on the Month £752.74

Outstanding Bets £2577.06

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=28

The travails of Sunday were cast aside as Monday saw a £220 profit from two bets, both on Manchester United v Chelsea on the Bet 365 offer. 12/5 on the draw and 10/1 on no goal-scorer both coming in, albeit the latter was not in the size requested, which seemed strange as the whole thrust of the offer in the marketing is to match the original bet as a free bet

Anyway, tactically the teams cancelled each other out, defences were mostly on top and for the £220 there was comparatively little sweat.

Elsewhere yesterday, Nadal cruised through his US Open first round match in straight sets whilst Dan Evans beat the 11th seed in one of the biggest Brit Grand Slam upsets in recent times.

In baseball the Kansas City Royals and the Tampa Bay Rays played a game that was postponed from earlier in the year. The Royals have been ona  bad run, losing 7 of 7 to fall away in the AL Central and condemn our bet on them to forgotten status, but last night they pulverised the Rays 11-1. Not a good result for the AL East bet, but tomorrow's another day in the battle with the Boston Red Sox.

I would say the news on the Rooney to stay bet bet is getting better. He put it in on the pitch last night and the Mourniho vibes last night were that Rooney was staying, unless he put in a fresh transfer request. Mixed signals from Moyes on the Bale front, but Madrid remain 1/6 to sign him this week so Dubai's bet should soon be live

Napoli did not play yesterday.

[TightEnd]

At one point last night Giggs came on as a sub and exclaimed across to Rooney "Wazza, you ok?" My heart sank. Not exactly "Jumble" Sales or "One Size" Fitz Hall or Billy "36" Twelvetrees is it?

Click to see full-size image.

No fuss, into the second round

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One of those days

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Good Evans

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Job done



Soon...

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[outragous76]

what is Freds biggest winning month?

[TightEnd]

what is Freds biggest winning month?

+£1087 March 2013

Followed by

-£1231 April 2013....

[tikay]

what is Freds biggest winning month?

+£1087 March 2013

Followed by

-£1231 April 2013....

Welcome to variance, what a 2 month swing that was.

FWIW, we have not had a losing month since.

May, June & July were all profitable months (though not huge amounts) & fingers crossed August ought to be a good month, too.

Our most profitable sport is football, so to have survived the summer profitably without footie is good, & of course, football profits should start hitting us again soon.

That is the theory, anyway......

[Tal]

Need another National Hunt racing festival IMO.

[tikay]

Need another National Hunt racing festival IMO.

Sun Alliances Novice Hurdle imo.

Jeez, I cacked myself that day.

The Boys knew what they were doing though. And that is why, sometimes, I have to put "blind faith" in what they say.

To most of us though, intuitively, betting so many horses in one race seemed illogical.

Now we know a little better, I hope. 

[TightEnd]

Dear Chompy

I wonder how long bookmakers will continue to offer odds against Peterborough to score 2+ goals at home?

They are again tonight 5/4 2+ v Reading, though this is SkyBet so thread can ignore

When the markets for this game populate, would you be playing overs, and if so how?

Any thoughts on Peterborough team selection? I know Reading have goals in them....

Thank you.