Tips for Tikay

[the sicilian]

The RP go for San Fran @ 8-1, and Cincy 25-1, Indy 50-1. Rather worryingly they agree with Spangles on 20-1 Andrew Luck.

Indy would be a headline and a half. Worst team in Football (no spurs gags, please) in 2011 and winning the superbowl in 2014. Would also be fun for Baltimore to be followed by Colts again.

The Colts became the worst team in the league mainly because Manning went down, which only enforces what a key position QB is...Luck comes in the next year and in his rookie season drags them to 11-5 behind a horrible O-line..he got hit last year...a lot but he looks very durable..unlike RGIII .Although I don't think the Colts will win the champioship but at 50-1 they look like a decent possibilty for greening out down the line.

I have watched NFL for 30 years and I believe Luck has the potential to be one of the best there ever was.. most expect him to push on from his rookie year and the colts are making improvements in some wanting areas...Cherilus at RT looks a good signing.. to take some pressure off luck to pass they have brought in Bradshaw at RB and if he can remain healthy they might start getting some decent balance.. I know the Colts want Luck to stay in the pocket more instead of running like a scared cat as his protection disintergrates..if the protection holds up he could cut secondarys to ribbons..

I have Luck ew most passing this year and I feel he can break into the top 4... and have him at 21-1 which i feel is the sort of value the thread aspires to..


Also and this is a recommend... the line of 2.0 over 8.5 season wins looks a little off..they have a soft division apart from the Texans who they split with last year and a soft schedule... i identified at least 8 paper comfortable wins on their schedule and put them about 10-6... i mentioned this to tighty and he agreed.. I actually pressed the max button for this on 365 expecting something silly like 12 grand and was a little spooked it was the £300 i was going to wager anyway..

Saying that Luck will do his ACL week 1 and ill be screwed...lol


SEASON SWEAT RECOMMEND COLTS OVER 8.5 SEASON WINS @2.0 365 OR OTHER VARIOUS..AT LEAST A £100

Anyone help me with this, please?

Note we have around £350 invested in the Passing Yards market at present, but I'm not averse to more - Fred does very well at NFL.

I'm confident in the Luck bet, I think the bookies possibly overestimate how much they'll be running it this year (if they think about in that depth). The under/over on the wins looks about right to me, this is a team that played beyond their talent and ran well in the tight ones last year.

Precisely the advice I got last week, that it was not a bet at that price, as the price was right.

I'll have a ponder & dither.

The soft Division and schedule is what appeals added to a slightly better team at key positions and an improving Luck.. i agree they over achieved last year but still feel they are better than 8-8

[TightEnd]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

Has all the Luck stats you need

He needs to go from about 275 yards passing a game last season to 325 a game this

Crikey.

So he needs to do 20% better than last Season for the bet to win, so we'd have to want him to be 30% better?

He might, but he needs to improve past three of the following to scoop


Brees
Stafford
Romo
Brady
Ryan

All of whom were 295 yards a game or more last year


We have three of those 5 at prices up to 10-1

Anyway, the stats explain why he is the price he is


The judgement call is whether over 16 games he's going to be somewhere between 400-600 yards higher in passing yards than he was last season

[the sicilian]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

Has all the Luck stats you need

He needs to go from about 275 yards passing a game last season to 325 a game this

Crikey.

So he needs to do 20% better than last Season for the bet to win, so we'd have to want him to be 30% better?

Thats for the win 301 to break into the top 4 so more like 10%..i dont think he will win it( always a chance though ) but ew at a smidge over 5's is the bet im more interested in

[the sicilian]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

Has all the Luck stats you need

He needs to go from about 275 yards passing a game last season to 325 a game this

Crikey.

So he needs to do 20% better than last Season for the bet to win, so we'd have to want him to be 30% better?

He might, but he needs to improve past three of the following to scoop


Brees
Stafford
Romo
Brady
Ryan

All of whom were 295 yards a game or more last year


We have three of those 5 at prices up to 10-1

Anyway, the stats explain why he is the price he is


The judgement call is whether over 16 games he's going to be somewhere between 400-600 yards higher in passing yards than he was last season

Just for clarification i didn't actually recommend this..just said i was on it personally...don't want another 'Kinboshi Gate '  lol

[tikay]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

Has all the Luck stats you need

He needs to go from about 275 yards passing a game last season to 325 a game this

Crikey.

So he needs to do 20% better than last Season for the bet to win, so we'd have to want him to be 30% better?

He might, but he needs to improve past three of the following to scoop


Brees
Stafford
Romo
Brady
Ryan

All of whom were 295 yards a game or more last year


We have three of those 5 at prices up to 10-1

Anyway, the stats explain why he is the price he is


The judgement call is whether over 16 games he's going to be somewhere between 400-600 yards higher in passing yards than he was last season

Just for clarification i didn't actually recommend this..just said i was on it personally...don't want another 'Kinboshi Gate '  lol

Yes, understood. But it's good to discuss these things imo, for those like me who know bugger all, it all adds to the learning experience.

If a business were asked to invest money in something it did not fully understand, it'd chew the cud before deciding.

All good.

No relation at all to Kinboshi-Gate, he stuck up a bet, changed his mind, then omitted to tell us! Camel was delighted, though.

[Tonji]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/vuelta-a-espana-stage-12/winner

Spoilsports, way way out with Tyler Farrar at 51/1 (palp?). He should be in the mix for todays stage, not as sharp as previous years but always close to top 3, with a 4th & 5th earlier in the race. Not got a account there myself. But small EW...

Typo that has now been changed I think - now reads 5/1?



http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/vuelta-a-espana-stage-12/winner

Incidentally, Betfair offer 9.4, for small money, which IS a ton ool. I helped myself to a small bet @ 9.41, thank you. Fred can have it if agreed BEFORE the price moves south.

Not for Fred imo, preferred the EW top 3 at a bigger price. Farrar has not been a winner this season, pretty much a top 3/5 merchant in the sprints. Hope he scampers home for a win today.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/vuelta-a-espana-stage-12/winner

Spoilsports, way way out with Tyler Farrar at 51/1 (palp?). He should be in the mix for todays stage, not as sharp as previous years but always close to top 3, with a 4th & 5th earlier in the race. Not got a account there myself. But small EW...

Typo that has now been changed I think - now reads 5/1?



http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/vuelta-a-espana-stage-12/winner

Incidentally, Betfair offer 9.4, for small money, which IS a ton ool. I helped myself to a small bet @ 9.41, thank you. Fred can have it if agreed BEFORE the price moves south.

Not for Fred imo, preferred the EW top 3 at a bigger price. Farrar has not been a winner this season, pretty much a top 3/5 merchant in the sprints. Hope he scampers home for a win today.

Ahh, thanks Tonji.

You enjoying this year's renewal?

We have a bet on it, I think, King of the Mountains, Mr Txurruka or somesuch? How he doing?

[the sicilian]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

Has all the Luck stats you need

He needs to go from about 275 yards passing a game last season to 325 a game this

Crikey.

So he needs to do 20% better than last Season for the bet to win, so we'd have to want him to be 30% better?

He might, but he needs to improve past three of the following to scoop


Brees
Stafford
Romo
Brady
Ryan

All of whom were 295 yards a game or more last year


We have three of those 5 at prices up to 10-1

Anyway, the stats explain why he is the price he is


The judgement call is whether over 16 games he's going to be somewhere between 400-600 yards higher in passing yards than he was last season

Just for clarification i didn't actually recommend this..just said i was on it personally...don't want another 'Kinboshi Gate '  lol

Yes, understood. But it's good to discuss these things imo, for those like me who know bugger all, it all adds to the learning experience.

If a business were asked to invest money in something it did not fully understand, it'd chew the cud before deciding.

All good.

No relation at all to Kinboshi-Gate, he stuck up a bet, changed his mind, then omitted to tell us! Camel was delighted, though.

LOL..No Pobs but its the E/W value that appeals not the outright

[Tal]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/vuelta-a-espana-stage-12/winner

Spoilsports, way way out with Tyler Farrar at 51/1 (palp?). He should be in the mix for todays stage, not as sharp as previous years but always close to top 3, with a 4th & 5th earlier in the race. Not got a account there myself. But small EW...

Typo that has now been changed I think - now reads 5/1?



http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/vuelta-a-espana-stage-12/winner

Incidentally, Betfair offer 9.4, for small money, which IS a ton ool. I helped myself to a small bet @ 9.41, thank you. Fred can have it if agreed BEFORE the price moves south.

Not for Fred imo, preferred the EW top 3 at a bigger price. Farrar has not been a winner this season, pretty much a top 3/5 merchant in the sprints. Hope he scampers home for a win today.

If Farrar wins, will he do the Mobot?

[TightEnd]

An update, for Aaron, Dubai, all interested....

England v Moldova

FGS

Bet365 offer each way (or anytime goal scorer) terms of 1/3 odds, unlimited places

Each of the following are realistic goal scorers, at better than Even money anytime, which would result in a net profit

Danny Welbeck 15/4
Theo Walcott 4/1
Frank Lampard 6/1

Lampard will be on penalties, and particularly appeals

Sturridge is 3/1. Gerrard 6/1.....

Of course you could be more aggressive, with the likes of Cleverly and Baines at higher prices, depending on your appetite for risk.

Correct Scores

Odds on possible corrct scores are as follows

All are with Sporting Bet, who are current best price by a long way

England 5-0 14/1
England 6-0 20/1
England 7-0 40/1

[horseplayer]

feel very lost with the nfl chat

more markets on it than the premiership it seems

[DungBeetle]

Are England going to start Wellbeck ahead of Sturridge do we think?    Hope that is just due to the thigh strain and not because Hodgeson thinks Wellbeck is a more viable International striker.

[tikay]

feel very lost with the nfl chat

more markets on it than the premiership it seems

Amazing array of markets, look at this bloody lot!


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials


Tighty must think he has died & gone to Heaven when he peruses those.

[TightEnd]

Are England going to start Wellbeck ahead of Sturridge do we think?    Hope that is just due to the thigh strain and not because Hodgeson thinks Wellbeck is a more viable International striker.

No idea. Sturridge touch and go with the thigh. Would be surprised to see him play 90

Can see him going Wellbeck/Defoe with Lambert on the bench

Walcott, Lampard, Gerrard, Cleverly behind

[tikay]

England v Moldova on Friday. Should be routine. Therefore I suggest a max bet on England to win to nil @ 9/20.

Priced up much smaller everywhere else and yes it's odds on, but I think it's pinching money personally. We beat them 5-0 away last time (http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/europe/matches/round=258374/match=300182319/report.html).

Also would suggest two £5 win singles on 7-0 and 8-0 wins which are 50's and 125 with Sporting Bet, not much value on any other scores.

Not sure what max bet is, but suggest on England to win to nil and the two £5 singles.

Good Luck.

What did we decide on this eventually?

Shoetly after it was Posted, Nico29 made a terrific post which EXACTLY represnted my thinking, but then, after chewing it over, I think the view was arrived at that the bet was probably good value?

I probably missed the boat anyway, as I was busy yesterday, & the prices have moved badly against us (so, good spot Aaron), see.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/england-v-moldova/to-win-to-nil

Still interested in the Correct Score bets though, as well as the Tighty Post just now.