Tips for Tikay

[pleno1]

I mean wait a minute folks.

Cristiano Ronaldo, messi etc etc frank ribery was voted above these guys last year and was the tar player in the champions league winners team. He is playing for this French team.


Hugo llrois in v good form for spurs.

Gironde leading the line and in great form for arsenal.

Sagna, clichy, pogba all v good IMO and benzema in squad

The recent results don't seem good but good players often excel in these circumstances.

3 styles ago they drew against a very poor Hungarian team at home and recent victories vs Israel and Georgia were by a single goal against 2 bad teams.

 Vs finals they drew t home and beat away, against Montenegro they managed a draw.

They haven't managed to score more than 2 goals in ther last 10 matches against mediocre opponents.

Further,ore their team has no real "stars" every one of their players play in weak leagues.


FFS they are bottom of their qualifying group. Any team like franc eating any team who re bottom of a qualifying group must be a max bet at 8/13



In France last 5 matches they drew against Spain and Uruguay who are very good teams bet euro finalists itly 2-1 and beat opponents Belarus 3-1

I can't accept this isn't a max bet

[redarmi]

I mean wait a minute folks.

Cristiano Ronaldo, messi etc etc frank ribery was voted above these guys last year and was the tar player in the champions league winners team. He is playing for this French team.


Hugo llrois in v good form for spurs.

Gironde leading the line and in great form for arsenal.

Sagna, clichy, pogba all v good IMO and benzema in squad

The recent results don't seem good but good players often excel in these circumstances.

3 styles ago they drew against a very poor Hungarian team at home and recent victories vs Israel and Georgia were by a single goal against 2 bad teams.

 Vs finals they drew t home and beat away, against Montenegro they managed a draw.

They haven't managed to score more than 2 goals in ther last 10 matches against mediocre opponents.

Further,ore their team has no real "stars" every one of their players play in weak leagues.


FFS they are bottom of their qualifying group. Any team like franc eating any team who re bottom of a qualifying group must be a max bet at 8/13



In France last 5 matches they drew against Spain and Uruguay who are very good teams bet euro finalists itly 2-1 and beat opponents Belarus 3-1

I can't accept this isn't a max bet

And which of these things do you think the odds compilers didn't know about? 

[pleno1]

I mean wait a minute folks.

Cristiano Ronaldo, messi etc etc frank ribery was voted above these guys last year and was the tar player in the champions league winners team. He is playing for this French team.


Hugo llrois in v good form for spurs.

Gironde leading the line and in great form for arsenal.

Sagna, clichy, pogba all v good IMO and benzema in squad

The recent results don't seem good but good players often excel in these circumstances.

3 styles ago they drew against a very poor Hungarian team at home and recent victories vs Israel and Georgia were by a single goal against 2 bad teams.

 Vs finals they drew t home and beat away, against Montenegro they managed a draw.

They haven't managed to score more than 2 goals in ther last 10 matches against mediocre opponents.

Further,ore their team has no real "stars" every one of their players play in weak leagues.


FFS they are bottom of their qualifying group. Any team like franc eating any team who re bottom of a qualifying group must be a max bet at 8/13



In France last 5 matches they drew against Spain and Uruguay who are very good teams bet euro finalists itly 2-1 and beat opponents Belarus 3-1

I can't accept this isn't a max bet

And which of these things do you think the odds compilers didn't know about? 

I guess the good form of Belarus recently was over estimated.

[redarmi]

Put it another way.  If the game was played in France this would be the equivalent of 2/9 France.  Would you consider that to be a maximum bet too?

[pleno1]

Not a maximum no. 8/13 I'd put up considerable money though!

[pleno1]

Belarus don't have a great home record. Poor infant and their stadium (national) is currently closed.

[redarmi]

Belarus don't have a great home record. Poor infant and their stadium (national) is currently closed.

The home advantage figures don't really change a great deal the difference is still about a goal in these games.  Anyway you are using very selective arguments.  Sure Belarus don't have a great home record but then France have only won 2 of their last ten away games and scored 4 goals in their previous seven games.  You can pretty much use stats to explain anything but if you think that France are a max bet in this spot you are making a pretty bad mistake.  For a team to be a max bet you would have to have a very big edge and in my experience it is pretty inconceivable that that is the case here especially given the fact that it was such a big market move which suggests the syndicates were on Belarus.  Anyway the game is done and you won so well done but I really couldn't have it as a long term profitable play and certainly not a max bet.

[aaron1867]

I think someone said it earlier, you are overestimating France and Underestimating Belarus.

Think France won by the odd goal?

[pleno1]

I think someone said it earlier, you are overestimating France and Underestimating Belarus.

Think France won by the odd goal?

Where have I underestimated Belarus?

France had 9 men losing their goalkeeper and star player and won 4-2

[tikay]

I mean wait a minute folks.

Cristiano Ronaldo, messi etc etc frank ribery was voted above these guys last year and was the tar player in the champions league winners team. He is playing for this French team.


Hugo llrois in v good form for spurs.

Gironde leading the line and in great form for arsenal.

Sagna, clichy, pogba all v good IMO and benzema in squad

The recent results don't seem good but good players often excel in these circumstances.

3 styles ago they drew against a very poor Hungarian team at home and recent victories vs Israel and Georgia were by a single goal against 2 bad teams.

 Vs finals they drew t home and beat away, against Montenegro they managed a draw.

They haven't managed to score more than 2 goals in ther last 10 matches against mediocre opponents.

Further,ore their team has no real "stars" every one of their players play in weak leagues.


FFS they are bottom of their qualifying group. Any team like franc eating any team who re bottom of a qualifying group must be a max bet at 8/13



In France last 5 matches they drew against Spain and Uruguay who are very good teams bet euro finalists itly 2-1 and beat opponents Belarus 3-1

I can't accept this isn't a max bet

And which of these things do you think the odds compilers didn't know about?  

Plinop,

Reds sums it up in half a sentence there.

All your views as to France's ability are fine & dandy, but I think you are completely missing the point of value here.

They WERE worthy favourites, without a doubt. They WERE likely to win. But.......the price was about right.

And if the price was right, we have NO EDGE, & we don't want to bet.

The bookie has around 10% or 12% built into his price - that is his theoretical profit if he matches his book perfectly.  So we need an edge which is 10% to break even. I would think we need the price to be wrong by closer to 20% before we'd be interested. The price was not 20% wrong.

The market was reasonably well-formed, & all the bookies prices were pretty much in line. It is probable that the price was correct. Which means "no bet".

[superwomble]

Padraig Power's 6/1 about Louie being next evicted from CBB worth snapping up for anyone that can get a worthwhile amount on. Be an easy trade tomo imo.

Best now 5/1 or 9/2. Still a bet?

[Doobs]

Elkaayed in the 16.10 at Doncaster 13/8 is worth backing in the Hills mobile offer.

I have also backed Jazz in the 2pm at 4/1 and think you should back Lightning Thunder in the 2nd at 5/2 with Ladbrokes (currently 2/1 with Hills).

Think you should use a free bet on Cap O Rushes in the St Leger on Saturday.  You can get 20/1 best price with Hills.  I have some doubts, but you'll always have that with 20/1 chances. 

[tikay]

Elkaayed in the 16.10 at Doncaster 13/8 is worth backing in the Hills mobile offer.

I have also backed Jazz in the 2pm at 4/1 and think you should back Lightning Thunder in the 2nd at 5/2 with Ladbrokes (currently 2/1 with Hills).

Think you should use a free bet on Cap O Rushes in the St Leger on Saturday.  You can get 20/1 best price with Hills.  I have some doubts, but you'll always have that with 20/1 chances. 

Thanks Doobs.

All DONE, exactly as above. Details to follow.

ON

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £981.06

Outstanding Bets £3025.90

Free bets TWO, Ladbrokes and William Hill, use by 17th Sept

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=29

A loss of £57 yesterday. Four races at Leicester produced a winner and two free bets from four races for a current loss of £32

In the football last night, Walcott did not score for a loss of £25. No one else scored either

Netherlands and Italy became the first European sides through to the 2014 World Cup finals while England probably have to beat Montenegro and Poland at home in October to do the same

A mixed night in Baseball. The Red Sox beat the Rays 2-0, and the AL East Division winner bet is virtually done. However in the wild card race the Orioles and Indians both lost, the Royals beating the Indiians.

The article below highlights The Kansas City Royals chase for the play-offs where last nights win over a rival for a berth was an important one

http://mlb.si.com/2013/09/11/hochevar-holland-headline-royals-remade-relief-corps/?sct=mlb_t11_a2

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

As Nadal secured the US Open in the early hours of Tuesday morning I am counting that as your birthday present. I loved the pics and musings on your diary, I could read them forever and I can vividly remember getting my first pair of school long trousers when I was 10.

I digressed. Super league tomorrow sees the start of the play offs with Wigan visiting Huddersfield. I always seem to be opposing Wigan lately but they have been playing very poorly. I thought they were lucky that Hull were even worse than them in the cup final. Wigan haven't won an away league fixture since 7th June. They have some injury doubts over a few players and are definitely without their captain, O'Loughlin, who is their most important player by far.

Before the prices came out I made Wigan 3 or 4 to 1. The prices are out now and everyone has them about 6/5. Huddersfield finished top of the league and beat Wigan home and away this season.

I don't like odds on betting but at these prices we should invest in Huddersfield.

Suggest £33 Huddersfield to beat Wigan @ 8/11with  Ladbrokes, Hills, Betvictor.