Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Quick Arc update.

Ocovango in the Prix Neil



He is in darkish red on the inside.  He didn't run terribly, but is currently best price 25/1 with the bookies, but any price you like with Betfair.  The winner is Kuzuna, and he had previously won the Japanese Derby.  The horse flying at the finish is Ruler of The World, who was the horse that cost me my Ladbrokes account in June.  Flintshire is 4th and out to 12/1 for the Arc.

Novellist in the King George



We are on at 6/1, the best price is now 13/2.

This is Treve winning the Prixe Vermeille.  She also won the French Oaks by a long way and looks a serious filly.



She is best price 4/1

Finally we get on to Ofevre.  Think we have him at 6/1, he is now best priced 7/2 because of this.



For those following Telescope, he has picked up an injury and doesn't run again this season.

[Marky147]

Tom Segal put Flintshire up for the Arc earlier this week fwiw.

[Doobs]

Tom Segal put Flintshire up for the Arc earlier this week fwiw.

Seems short enough if he doesn't really like the soft?

I am happy with our three two

[tikay]

I don't see any creativity in the Liverpool side without Coutinho. Gerrard is a shadow if his former self and can't get box to box like he used to. Sturridge might have a frustrating day unless the ref is whistle-happy.

At the risk of a daft question...How badly wrong can bookies get premiership outright markets?

It's an interesting game, though. Unders seems a good bet, but that now means a flurry of first half goals. Apologies!

In my view? Not much, & not often. We need them to be 10% to 15% wrong to make it worthwhile, & I think thats pretty rare. We are, for the most part, just punting otherwise.

Camel & Co have got it right, they spot prices during a Team's previous game which will materially affect their next fixture, that sort of stuff.

Don't get me wrong, I'm NOT digging out the various debating points stuck up today by Nico & others - I just think you need to get very lucky to find an edge on regular Premier League games. The Sub-Markets, in a way, are sometimes easier, as the odds-setters don't always pay attention to what is happening.

Deffo worth asking the question though. Dubs will probably be along in a mo to blow my logic out of the water.

[tikay]

I don't see any creativity in the Liverpool side without Coutinho. Gerrard is a shadow if his former self and can't get box to box like he used to. Sturridge might have a frustrating day unless the ref is whistle-happy.

At the risk of a daft question...How badly wrong can bookies get premiership outright markets?

It's an interesting game, though. Unders seems a good bet, but that now means a flurry of first half goals. Apologies!

It's a fair question, and it's unlikely they will ever get any particular match 'that' wrong, however, I believe there are small edges, such as taking the best price available and taking an opinion that certain factors have been put into the market too much, such as Liverpool being top this early and perhaps Southampton not yet scoring from open play.

I also believe the books will openly give smidgens of value as they know exactly where blind money will automatically go, making the other side too large. All a bit vague but just my view of attempting to gain value in the prem.

That's about right. Occasional smidgens, but still worth looking for, especially the point as to "blind money".  Hard to imagine ever finding a MAX though.

[tikay]

Doobs - appreciate the Arc Update, thanks.

[McGlashan]

Also like west ham v everton and west brom v sunderland on the under 2.5 market but would 4/5 be considered value?

not researched it but having watched 2 games featuring West Ham's front 4 of Maiga, Diame, Jarvis and Nolan I wouldn't like to have a penny on them to hit the net.

[Doobs]

I meant to ask earlier, did anyone get any of the 5 places on the Tour Championship golf with Sky.  I know it wasn't there the day after.

I also managed to get some of that 5/1 with Paddy Power Tiger Woods with money back if 2nd.  That didn't go so well, though he is a respectable 29th...

[Chompy]

Tom Segal put Flintshire up for the Arc earlier this week fwiw.

Seems short enough if he doesn't really like the soft?

I am happy with our three two

Tipped up in the hope it's not soft. Despite the time of year, the ground is often decent for the Arc. Treve looks very tasty, given Dettori gave her a horrible ride.

Was looking at Crawley away at Colchester tomorrow and really like them but not at 7/5. Was hoping for a bit bigger than that.

[Doobs]

I don't want to say anything, but we have a free bet with Hills for 20th, this has been used yet? 20th is tomorrow....

Why don't you want to say anything?!

Is it worth putting it on the Lesean McCoy coup? 7's with Hills

Just got home from work.

This made perfect sense, but I cannot see any remaining Free Bets with Wm Hill. May be mistaken, but too tired to check right now. There are definitely not any showing on my account.

think someone said it had too be used by the 20th so you have lost it by 1 hour

I don't think this can be right.  I have one on my account, and it expires at 15.20 on the 26/9.  That relates to yesterdays 14.10 race at Ayr.  I am fairly sure the rest have expired about that time, so I think they expire exactly 7 days after they were added to your account.

So I think we either had the date wrong or we have used it...

Unless Hills have done a Ladbrokes.

[tikay]

I don't want to say anything, but we have a free bet with Hills for 20th, this has been used yet? 20th is tomorrow....

Why don't you want to say anything?!

Is it worth putting it on the Lesean McCoy coup? 7's with Hills

Just got home from work.

This made perfect sense, but I cannot see any remaining Free Bets with Wm Hill. May be mistaken, but too tired to check right now. There are definitely not any showing on my account.

think someone said it had too be used by the 20th so you have lost it by 1 hour

I don't think this can be right.  I have one on my account, and it expires at 15.20 on the 26/9.  That relates to yesterdays 14.10 race at Ayr.  I am fairly sure the rest have expired about that time, so I think they expire exactly 7 days after they were added to your account.

So I think we either had the date wrong or we have used it...

Unless Hills have done a Ladbrokes.

I think I had already used it.

[Waz1892]

any french football "experts"?

St Et vs Toulouse.  You could look at this 2 ways.

2nd vs 19th.  Toulouse haven't won any game so far this season (5 games)   St Et won 4 from 5, having only let in 3 goals in those 5 games.  3/4 odds seem good to back

However upon further analysis Toulouse have had an awful fixtures, playing Monaco, Marseille (1st and 4th respectively), in fact the draw with monaco, 0-0 is the only points monaco have dropped, so is the 9/2 that is available inflated?

form/confidence leads me to think St Et are good for a cheeky £20 @ 3/4 (5/6 best with boyes)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/france/ligue-1/st-etienne-v-toulouse/winner

[Doobs]

any french football "experts"?

St Et vs Toulouse.  You could look at this 2 ways.

2nd vs 19th.  Toulouse haven't won any game so far this season (5 games)   St Et won 4 from 5, having only let in 3 goals in those 5 games.  3/4 odds seem good to back

However upon further analysis Toulouse have had an awful fixtures, playing Monaco, Marseille (1st and 4th respectively), in fact the draw with monaco, 0-0 is the only points monaco have dropped, so is the 9/2 that is available inflated?

form/confidence leads me to think St Et are good for a cheeky £20 @ 3/4 (5/6 best with boyes)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/france/ligue-1/st-etienne-v-toulouse/winner

I am really confused, why are we taking 3/4 if 5/6 is available?

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T.

I would like to endorse the Tighty tip of Wasps to beat Sale tonight, 7/5 is a good price.

Incidentally for the likes of Mr Adz etc who can bet with Sky they have a great price for Adam Swift to score a try anytime for St Helens tonight. They go 7/4 when everyone else is about Evs and he is in the same kind of form as Justin Carney was, he has scored in each of his last 6 games. He is not a 1-4 shot as the Leeds defence is sound but I would have him a wee bit under evens.

[Doobs]

Just received a message from the BigAdz tipping line.

He tells me we can't possibly miss backing Thankyou Very Much, Jamie Spencer in the 5.10 at Ayr.  It could only be more appropriate if Luca Cumani trained it.  With the free bet and the best odds guarantee with Hills Mobile, you could even make a very weak case for value, though we should probably wait for 9/2.

We should only back it on one condition, and that is that it goes down to BigAdz.