Tips for Tikay

[TheDazzler]

While its quiet. A question.

When a player goes on loan, who pays what? Does the new club pay his wages, or his old club? Are they the same wages he agreed with his old club?

As regards this, I'm open to correction but I was told the following;
Adebayor was on £175K a week at Man City.
He had 2 years remaining on his contract when Spurs bought him for £5m last year. But they had a wage cap of £75k a week and Adebayor wasn't going to take a pay cut. So Spurs have been paying him £75k/week and Man City have paid £100k/week for the year just gone. He is in the last year of that now and still picking up that paycheck every week. This is why he didn't leave during the window as he ain't taking a pay cut and no one is crazy enough to pay those wages for his lazy arse.
In effect, Spurs paid Man City £5m and City paid Spurs £10m back.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/aston-villa-v-tottenham/winner

spurs played Thursday, Sunday and now Tuesday in a competition that is way down the list of priorities for them.  Villa, have the cups and that is it.

villa at home, 5/2with most seems like a reasonable bet?

5/2, at home, & Spurs (away) have to play their third game in 6 days in a "not very interesting" Cup?

I'm not a football expert, but to me, that looks a must bet.

I'll need some advice from the grown-ups, but I've had a little bet for myself on the strength of your suggestion.

Views anyone?

The bookies have the same info as we do, perhaps I'm missing something here?

This looks a bet to me.  You can get 13/5 with BetFred which is a bit better.

Here to learn...

But, what's the difference in this bet and the numerous others similar to this where bookies have all of the information that we are using as positives to bet ?

There does seem to be some relevance put onto who is posting the bet itt, imo.

A bet is proposed. Someone 2nds the bet. If the person 2nding the bet is a shrewdie, in this case Doobs, the bet is placed as it is seen to be a +EV bet. There is nothing sinister going on.
Having said that, Villa last year got more points away from home than at home. And Spurs had the 2nd best away record after United. And Benteke is possibly out.
So yes, on first glance it looks a big price and a good bet but the bookies do indeed know all this so it's not a bet I'd be 2nding. We'll see. If the price goes off shorter, it'll be somewhat value. I can't really see it going off bigger.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/aston-villa-v-tottenham/winner

spurs played Thursday, Sunday and now Tuesday in a competition that is way down the list of priorities for them.  Villa, have the cups and that is it.

villa at home, 5/2with most seems like a reasonable bet?

5/2, at home, & Spurs (away) have to play their third game in 6 days in a "not very interesting" Cup?

I'm not a football expert, but to me, that looks a must bet.

I'll need some advice from the grown-ups, but I've had a little bet for myself on the strength of your suggestion.

Views anyone?

The bookies have the same info as we do, perhaps I'm missing something here?

This looks a bet to me.  You can get 13/5 with BetFred which is a bit better.

Here to learn...

But, what's the difference in this bet and the numerous others similar to this where bookies have all of the information that we are using as positives to bet ?

There does seem to be some relevance put onto who is posting the bet itt, imo.

Most of us are, Ray.

In this case, I sort of think the bookies MAY have failed to adequately discount the 3 matches in 6 days thing. I could be completely wrong, of course, & I'll doubtless be told if I am! I have to make these calls every day, & I get plenty wrong. I don't see how else I can do it.

Relevance to the Poster? Of course! If it's an Elder, even if I disagree, I bet it blind. Someone I know well, been here for ever, not so much, that's just a judgement call. In this case, Mr Waz is (relatively) not one who sticks up many bets here, so I sought advice, & when Maths Man agreed, I decided to bet.

My very close personal friend Methuselah followed up with a suggestion to oppose Arsenasl shortly after - I have yet to get on that, as I'm wobbling & dithering.

The danger of course is "clique" accusations, which, I confess, irk me somewhat. We've had nearly 140 different folks have Fred bets, & the aim to to keep getting more & more follks to stick stuff up. Striking the right balance is incredibly difficult, but as it is my money on the line, it stands to reason that I do the best I can to sort the wheat from the chaff.

It helps (more than it should) if people give a good rationale for the bet to justify the perrceived value, and an Oddschecker link. It don't 'arf help, because Fred soaks up time like a sponge. That sort of thing should not sway me, but it sometimes does, for reasons of (lack of) time.

Good question Mr N.

[Chompy]

Oi oi! Random draw bias alert!

Tipperary. It's a long way home for those drawn low judging by the last race over 5f.

The next race is also 5f and we have to be backing the obv runner drawn high.

That is Invisible Flash, 4-1 generally in the 3.15

£20 win @ 4-1, gogogogo!

[Doobs]

Do much break-dancing Tony?

Arsenal looked understandably very leggy in the second half yesterday which is hardly surprising given how thin the squad has become due to injuries. A few such as Arteta, Monreal and Vermaelen have come back in thankfully.

We will have to rest a lot of players on Wednesday at West Brom and 11/4 or thereabouts looks generous to me as we will be playing a side comprised mostly of reserves with a decent smattering of returning experience not forgetting TGSTEL.

Recommend a small wager at 5/2+.

Break dancing? Me? All the time, obv. Not so much recently, as I've taken up something called kettlecise. google is your friend, as the saying goes. 

Thats an interesting spot (WBA to beat Arsenal in the Leaque Cup), & we can get 14/5 in a few spots....seems really quite large, all things considered, almost 3/1 at home.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/west-brom-v-arsenal/winner

My gut reaction is that the Arsenal are on a long unbeaten run, & I'm sure they will be keen & revved up to continue that. Does it not depend to a large degree upon what sort of Team Mr W decides upon? Presumably, that price suggests, as you note, a very much Second X1?

TGSTEL? - you'll have to help me there, brain not working today.

Definitely interested in these potential value spots. 

As it stands I have backed both Aston Villa and West Brom at best prices.

This simply isn't the same spot as a couple of teams playing in the premiership.  There is every chance that any of the 4 teams involved aren't going to take these matches as seriously as they would a premiership match.  So there is a much higher chance the prices could be wrong than in your average Saturday afternoon premiership match.  

I may be completely wrong, but from here it seems there is a good chance I am going to see a near full strength Villa vs Spurs seconds, or a near full strength West Brom vs Arsenal seconds.  If either of those things happened the prices I have taken will look very good.  If we see full strength sides competing on both matches then I don't think the prices are going to be far wrong, and the tiredness of Spurs and Arsenal must be worth something anyway?  It is also entirely possible that the two Midland sides are the ones that don't take the Cup seriously too.

Overall, I don't think any possible edge here is ever going to be massive.

On top of this, I have questioned Waz's tips on at least one, probably two occasions, and felt it was good to show some support when he started thinking better.  I'd have probably put less than £50 of thread money on, but don't think the bet can be terrible.  

I have no preference for either Arsenal or Spurs outside from the bets, and think West Brom look pretty bad this year.  

Finally Tony should obviously take in to account the person recommending the bet.

[tikay]

Oi oi! Random draw bias alert!

Tipperary. It's a long way home for those drawn low judging by the last race over 5f.

The next race is also 5f and we have to be backing the obv runner drawn high.

That is Invisible Flash, 4-1 generally in the 3.15

£20 win @ 4-1, gogogogo!

What? Is there REALLY a racecourse in Tipperarry? Good grief.

We are on. Random Draw Bias bla bla bla.

£20 WIN @ 4/1, Wm Hill, Invisible Flash, 3.15 Tipper.

ON


23 Sep 2013 - 3:15 Tipperary - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!

Tip It

Invisible Flash @ 4/1

Stake : £20.00


Estimated Returns : £

100.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000667/F

[BigAdz]

As a gooner, I would want to see our starting team before parting with any cash. I have a feeling Mr W may well be treating every comp with the utmost respect with our trophy cabinet empty for so long. It may cost half a point but probably worth the wait. It seemed to be the case last year. Plus the fact our squad is so small we can only play the best players it could make team selection a fait acompli!

[tikay]

Do much break-dancing Tony?

Arsenal looked understandably very leggy in the second half yesterday which is hardly surprising given how thin the squad has become due to injuries. A few such as Arteta, Monreal and Vermaelen have come back in thankfully.

We will have to rest a lot of players on Wednesday at West Brom and 11/4 or thereabouts looks generous to me as we will be playing a side comprised mostly of reserves with a decent smattering of returning experience not forgetting TGSTEL.

Recommend a small wager at 5/2+.

Break dancing? Me? All the time, obv. Not so much recently, as I've taken up something called kettlecise. google is your friend, as the saying goes. 

Thats an interesting spot (WBA to beat Arsenal in the Leaque Cup), & we can get 14/5 in a few spots....seems really quite large, all things considered, almost 3/1 at home.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/west-brom-v-arsenal/winner

My gut reaction is that the Arsenal are on a long unbeaten run, & I'm sure they will be keen & revved up to continue that. Does it not depend to a large degree upon what sort of Team Mr W decides upon? Presumably, that price suggests, as you note, a very much Second X1?

TGSTEL? - you'll have to help me there, brain not working today.

Definitely interested in these potential value spots. 

As it stands I have backed both Aston Villa and West Brom at best prices.

This simply isn't the same spot as a couple of teams playing in the premiership.  There is every chance that any of the 4 teams involved aren't going to take these matches as seriously as they would a premiership match.  So there is a much higher chance the prices could be wrong than in your average Saturday afternoon premiership match.  

I may be completely wrong, but from here it seems there is a good chance I am going to see a near full strength Villa vs Spurs seconds, or a near full strength West Brom vs Arsenal seconds.  If either of those things happened the prices I have taken will look very good.  If we see full strength sides competing on both matches then I don't think the prices are going to be far wrong, and the tiredness of Spurs and Arsenal must be worth something anyway?  It is also entirely possible that the two Midland sides are the ones that don't take the Cup seriously too.

Overall, I don't think any possible edge here is ever going to be massive.

On top of this, I have questioned Waz's tips on at least one, probably two occasions, and felt it was good to show some support when he started thinking better.  I'd have probably put less than £50 of thread money on, but don't think the bet can be terrible.  

I have no preference for either Arsenal or Spurs outside from the bets, and think West Brom look pretty bad this year.  

Finally Tony should obviously take in to account the person recommending the bet.

Yes, with hindsight, I think £25 or £30 may have been more appropriate.

All good learning though.

We are NOT on WBA to beat Arsenal yet, & we can discuss it a little more before we decide either way.

[tikay]

As a gooner, I would want to see our starting team before parting with any cash. I have a feeling Mr W may well be treating every comp with the utmost respect with our trophy cabinet empty for so long. It may cost half a point but probably worth the wait. It seemed to be the case last year. Plus the fact our squad is so small we can only play the best players it could make team selection a fait acompli!

Yup, totally relevant.

[Rubbish2407]

Arsenal haven't failed to make the quarter finals of the League Cup since 2003, mostly with reserve team players and 1st teamers needing a run out. I wouldn't be in a hurry to oppose them.

[tikay]

Oi oi! Random draw bias alert!

Tipperary. It's a long way home for those drawn low judging by the last race over 5f.

The next race is also 5f and we have to be backing the obv runner drawn high.

That is Invisible Flash, 4-1 generally in the 3.15

£20 win @ 4-1, gogogogo!

3/1 now.

Guess whats for dinner tonight?

[tikay]

Arsenal haven't failed to make the quarter finals of the League Cup since 2003, mostly with reserve team players and 1st teamers needing a run out. I wouldn't be in a hurry to oppose them.

Agreed. But there would be a price at which you would, surely? This, I think, was Methuselah's point, or partly so.

[tikay]

Oi oi! Random draw bias alert!

Tipperary. It's a long way home for those drawn low judging by the last race over 5f.

The next race is also 5f and we have to be backing the obv runner drawn high.

That is Invisible Flash, 4-1 generally in the 3.15

£20 win @ 4-1, gogogogo!

3/1 now.

Guess whats for dinner tonight?

Now 9/4!

Incred spot by me.

[Chompy]

Oi oi! Random draw bias alert!

Tipperary. It's a long way home for those drawn low judging by the last race over 5f.

The next race is also 5f and we have to be backing the obv runner drawn high.

That is Invisible Flash, 4-1 generally in the 3.15

£20 win @ 4-1, gogogogo!

3/1 now.

Guess whats for dinner tonight?

Beetroot?

[pleno1]

huh, I hadnt said anything and everybody was setting lines on when Id chirp? lol

But yeah Im a bad guy Keith, you got me down to a tee.

Aftertiming is the worst.

You've got a way to go to catch BigAdz and Kinboshi though.

tbf keith pleno tipped di canios sacking a few weeks back I thought fred was on I was going to come on and offer my congratulations but skimming the spreadsheet fred didnt get on.

so he isnt after timing in the sense that I understand after timing just offering rubs which was to be expected and he was mocked for before it happened

Aftertiming is boasting about picking a winner when the person/people you are boasting to aren't on.

What is the point of boasting anyway? The person boasting is only going to piss off the people he's boasting to

lol i didnt though i was just responding to those posting. I still dont think there is anything wrong with posting boooooom or something when a bet youve been predicting and others have backed comes in, perfectly fine.

but we both know you and i both hate to be wrong, and its Monday and i want to start the week smiling so you can win this one sir.

gl this week punters

[Chompy]

If jockeys had brains...