Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

"You've only got 12 men, You've only got 12 men"

A cry beloved of fans the world over, at some perceived injustice at the hands of officials

I think I have come up with a great angle for the NFL

Meet Carl Cheffers



In his last 36 NFL games, the home team has won 31 times

How did I come across him? Well he refereed the Dallas match last night that I watched several times. I could not believe a few of the calls. Two blatant pass interferences were not called, one hands to the face on the St Louis QB, a couple of holding calls all not called on Dallas

I went and researched the referee and found the 31 of 36 stat

This page has everything we need to know

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/ChefCa0r.htm

In 2010 66% of the games he refereed -15 in total- were home wins

In 2011 87.5% of the games he refereed -16 in total- were home wins

In 2012 75% of the games he refereed -12 in total- were home wins

Season to date. 3 home wins from three Cheffers refereed games

In the NFL over the last 14 seasons home teams win 57% of the time

Is this a coincidence? Is 36 games or looking at the data a six year refereeing career statistically significant? I suspect it might be, though the treands are really pronounced in the last three years and three games

The penalties given in the game by his crew are skewed towards away teams. Season to date penalties awarded against home teams in his games are 38% of the total

In a tight league, with spreads often 3 points or less, the loss of yards associated with a higher percentage of penalties awarded against away teams can make an enormous difference

I went onto google and saw you tube pages lampooning his biased calls, and questioning his competence

So we have a hypothesis. If this referee is appointed, ceteris paribus, it can skew a game result towards the home team and create inefficiencies in spread prices

Week 4 referee appointments will come out during the week, can be monitored on http://www.football-refs.com/2013-crews/week-4/

If he is appointed to a game with a less than one score points spread (ie a close enough game that ability can be skewed by penalty awards), I suggest we back the home team, for small money, and test the theory over a few weeks

Impressive stuff.  It does seem to be statistically significant too.  On average we would expect home advantage to be worth about 3 points (maybe a little less) and the road team to win about 42.8% of games.  If we put that into a binomial distribution calculation then we would expect then road team to only win up to 5 games about one in 4912 times so it does seem like there is a decent bias.  Of course that is assuming he has reffed games which are average so it is probably not the correct figure but we can probably agree that he is a homer and that is not in the line.

[Tal]

Oooh I do love it when you talk dirty, redarmi

[tikay]

Oooh I do love it when you talk dirty, redarmi

rofl

binomial, ceteris paribus, incredible scenes.

[Tal]

Oooh I do love it when you talk dirty, redarmi

rofl

binomial, ceteris paribus, incredible scenes.

I had to pick up a bit of Latin at uni, only doing modern languages at school.

Semper ubi sub ubi used to get a giggle.

Ubi means Wear
Semper means Always
Sub means under

Was funny at the time...

[redarmi]

Oooh I do love it when you talk dirty, redarmi

Wait until I get a few beers down your throat at the dogs.....if you are lucky I might even show you my poisson adjustments based on league and supremacy ;-)

[BigAdz]

Nowhere near his Tightness in depth of research but got a Presidents Cup recommend.

£10 ew Hunter Mahan top American points scorer 10-1 general or 12-1 if you can get owt on.

Normally seems to be Captains pick for these team events but easily made it on his own merits this time, which in itself shows his progress.

A steady and sometimes spectacular player, he was second to Kuchar in the Accenture Matchplay earlier in the year, and has a fair record in 4 PC matches so far winning 8 of 14 games.

With his straight driving, ranked 3rd of the players here behind Stricker and Speith, he must have every chance of getting plenty of chances of playing the foursomes. A good show in them normally gives you a fourball game too, so I think he will see some action.

He played a few games in last Presidents Cup with Stricker, and that looks like a good solid combo again with both in form.

As a player on the up, and one of the true "U.S.A" brigade he looks a solid proposition at a decent price.

[Doobs]

Hey Adz, what price would you want on Jordan Spieth for next year's masters?

FWIW He isn't in every betting list, but gets in on top 30 in this year's money list.

I have already backed him.

[BigAdz]

Hey Adz, what price would you want on Jordan Spieth for next year's masters?

FWIW He isn't in every betting list, but gets in on top 30 in this year's money list.

I have already backed him.

Evening Sir.

Seems to keep progressing up that curve nicely. Was thinking I might have to think again about an acceptable price as the 33s seems like wishful t.

Looked at the prices for US Open first and thought 40s was fair. When I saw 66s for the masters had to have the max each would let me. May look foolish in 9 months time but cant see it being a bigger price unless he goes all David Duval on us. Great spot Doobs.

[Doobs]

Hey Adz, what price would you want on Jordan Spieth for next year's masters?

FWIW He isn't in every betting list, but gets in on top 30 in this year's money list.

I have already backed him.

Evening Sir.

Seems to keep progressing up that curve nicely. Was thinking I might have to think again about an acceptable price as the 33s seems like wishful t.

Looked at the prices for US Open first and thought 40s was fair. When I saw 66s for the masters had to have the max each would let me. May look foolish in 9 months time but cant see it being a bigger price unless he goes all David Duval on us. Great spot Doobs.

Glad you think so.  The Masters comes first so less of a wait.  Looking at the others at 66/1, you wouldn't back any above Speight.

Suggest Tikay gets £20 on the nose Jordan Spieth for the long sweat on the US Masters.

You can get 66/1 on BET365, Boylesports or Paddy Power.  The thinking is I can't see him starting at 66/1 any time soon in a US golf tournament and this price looks a bit stale.

[Omm]

Hey Adz, what price would you want on Jordan Spieth for next year's masters?

FWIW He isn't in every betting list, but gets in on top 30 in this year's money list.

I have already backed him.

Evening Sir.

Seems to keep progressing up that curve nicely. Was thinking I might have to think again about an acceptable price as the 33s seems like wishful t.

Looked at the prices for US Open first and thought 40s was fair. When I saw 66s for the masters had to have the max each would let me. May look foolish in 9 months time but cant see it being a bigger price unless he goes all David Duval on us. Great spot Doobs.

Funny you should mention David Duval, currently 949 on betfair for the Alfred Dunhill links championship, what a fall from grace for a once very successful golfer.

[Tal]

Oooh I do love it when you talk dirty, redarmi

Wait until I get a few beers down your throat at the dogs.....if you are lucky I might even show you my poisson adjustments based on league and supremacy ;-)

I'd command you to report to my chamber of specialist interest at once, were I not teetotal.

Try to and I'd probably end up doing this

[Karabiner]

Oooh I do love it when you talk dirty, redarmi

Wait until I get a few beers down your throat at the dogs.....if you are lucky I might even show you my poisson adjustments based on league and supremacy ;-)

I'd command you to report to my chamber of specialist interest at once, were I not teetotal.

Try to and I'd probably end up doing this

I'm sure I saw you mention something about pouring a whiskey or reaching for the whiskey bottle last week.

[tikay]

Hey Adz, what price would you want on Jordan Spieth for next year's masters?

FWIW He isn't in every betting list, but gets in on top 30 in this year's money list.

I have already backed him.

Evening Sir.

Seems to keep progressing up that curve nicely. Was thinking I might have to think again about an acceptable price as the 33s seems like wishful t.

Looked at the prices for US Open first and thought 40s was fair. When I saw 66s for the masters had to have the max each would let me. May look foolish in 9 months time but cant see it being a bigger price unless he goes all David Duval on us. Great spot Doobs.

Glad you think so.  The Masters comes first so less of a wait.  Looking at the others at 66/1, you wouldn't back any above Speight.

Suggest Tikay gets £20 on the nose Jordan Spieth for the long sweat on the US Masters.

You can get 66/1 on BET365, Boylesports or Paddy Power.  The thinking is I can't see him starting at 66/1 any time soon in a US golf tournament and this price looks a bit stale.

Thanks Gents.

Why win only?

[BigAdz]

I did him ew must confess, dont know if that messes with the value proposition as probably get better terms later but its the inherent way I bet on golf....too many near misses.

[Doobs]

Hey Adz, what price would you want on Jordan Spieth for next year's masters?

FWIW He isn't in every betting list, but gets in on top 30 in this year's money list.

I have already backed him.

Evening Sir.

Seems to keep progressing up that curve nicely. Was thinking I might have to think again about an acceptable price as the 33s seems like wishful t.

Looked at the prices for US Open first and thought 40s was fair. When I saw 66s for the masters had to have the max each would let me. May look foolish in 9 months time but cant see it being a bigger price unless he goes all David Duval on us. Great spot Doobs.

Glad you think so.  The Masters comes first so less of a wait.  Looking at the others at 66/1, you wouldn't back any above Speight.

Suggest Tikay gets £20 on the nose Jordan Spieth for the long sweat on the US Masters.

You can get 66/1 on BET365, Boylesports or Paddy Power.  The thinking is I can't see him starting at 66/1 any time soon in a US golf tournament and this price looks a bit stale.

Thanks Gents.

Why win only?

quarter first 5 is fine too.

ok £20 each way

be quick, we've knacked the price, 365 only