Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Nowhere near his Tightness in depth of research but got a Presidents Cup recommend.

£10 ew Hunter Mahan top American points scorer 10-1 general or 12-1 if you can get owt on.

Normally seems to be Captains pick for these team events but easily made it on his own merits this time, which in itself shows his progress.

A steady and sometimes spectacular player, he was second to Kuchar in the Accenture Matchplay earlier in the year, and has a fair record in 4 PC matches so far winning 8 of 14 games.

With his straight driving, ranked 3rd of the players here behind Stricker and Speith, he must have every chance of getting plenty of chances of playing the foursomes. A good show in them normally gives you a fourball game too, so I think he will see some action.

He played a few games in last Presidents Cup with Stricker, and that looks like a good solid combo again with both in form.

As a player on the up, and one of the true "U.S.A" brigade he looks a solid proposition at a decent price.

Thanks. We are on, details later, busy at mo.

[tikay]

Hey Adz, what price would you want on Jordan Spieth for next year's masters?

FWIW He isn't in every betting list, but gets in on top 30 in this year's money list.

I have already backed him.

Evening Sir.

Seems to keep progressing up that curve nicely. Was thinking I might have to think again about an acceptable price as the 33s seems like wishful t.

Looked at the prices for US Open first and thought 40s was fair. When I saw 66s for the masters had to have the max each would let me. May look foolish in 9 months time but cant see it being a bigger price unless he goes all David Duval on us. Great spot Doobs.

Glad you think so.  The Masters comes first so less of a wait.  Looking at the others at 66/1, you wouldn't back any above Speight.

Suggest Tikay gets £20 on the nose Jordan Spieth for the long sweat on the US Masters.

You can get 66/1 on BET365, Boylesports or Paddy Power.  The thinking is I can't see him starting at 66/1 any time soon in a US golf tournament and this price looks a bit stale.

Thanks Gents.

Why win only?

quarter first 5 is fine too.

ok £20 each way

be quick, we've knacked the price, 365 only

Already on, with Boylesports, £20 ew, details in the morning.

[tikay]

We were on the Super Bees tonight to beat Orient. They losted.

[Tal]

Oooh I do love it when you talk dirty, redarmi

Wait until I get a few beers down your throat at the dogs.....if you are lucky I might even show you my poisson adjustments based on league and supremacy ;-)

I'd command you to report to my chamber of specialist interest at once, were I not teetotal.

Try to and I'd probably end up doing this

I'm sure I saw you mention something about pouring a whiskey or reaching for the whiskey bottle last week.

[Ant040689]

I quite like Orient. Would like them to set an outrageous record with this run, now. Before tonight thought I wanted Brentford to win, to help you guys out.

Sort of guy I am.

[rinswun]

Slightly late to the party but the trend of rookies not winning at The Masters stretches back over 30 years. Obviously a very talented guy and clearly plays well in Georgia but I wouldn't go crazy on a first timer there. Average winner at Augusta is 32 and has had 7 prev starts there.

[redarmi]

Paddy Power have made another rick tonight with the First TD market imo.  The Broncos have got about a 72% chance of scoring the first TD by my estimation.  So far of 12 TD's they have scored nine have been passing TD's.  I think this is a bit high but it probably isn't horribly off.  Lets assume 65% as this is what it was last year.  He has so far shared his receptions amongst his receivers fairly equally with Welker 12 for 3 TD's, Julius Thomas 11 for 3 TD's, Eric Decker 11 for 0 TD's and Demaryius Thomas 10 for 2 TD's from 57 completed passes.  Manning does like to give all of his receivers action so it is fair to assume all four will be get 18-20% of the chances which would make them all 72%*65%*20% so about 9.3% each or roughly 10/1 each true odds. 

I think there is an argument that Welker might get a few more of the better quality chances but an injury in the Oakland corners to Tyvon Branch who normally covers their tight ends means Thomas might get more chances too and also Decker given he hasn't had a TD.  Irrespective I think you couldn't go wrong having a small bet on Thomas at 12/1 and Decker at 14/1.  Both are much shorter at firms that have a clue.  Realise Fred is limited with Paddy power but figured some regulars here might be looking for an interest.

[BigAdz]

Slightly late to the party but the trend of rookies not winning at The Masters stretches back over 30 years. Obviously a very talented guy and clearly plays well in Georgia but I wouldn't go crazy on a first timer there. Average winner at Augusta is 32 and has had 7 prev starts there.

Abso fair point. Thought similar after we had dived in, but at this stage he seems to be in the Rory/Tiger type mould and I think come the tourny itself we will be quite happy with 66s.

[TheDazzler]

Paddy Power have made another rick tonight with the First TD market imo.  The Broncos have got about a 72% chance of scoring the first TD by my estimation.  So far of 12 TD's they have scored nine have been passing TD's.  I think this is a bit high but it probably isn't horribly off.  Lets assume 65% as this is what it was last year.  He has so far shared his receptions amongst his receivers fairly equally with Welker 12 for 3 TD's, Julius Thomas 11 for 3 TD's, Eric Decker 11 for 0 TD's and Demaryius Thomas 10 for 2 TD's from 57 completed passes.  Manning does like to give all of his receivers action so it is fair to assume all four will be get 18-20% of the chances which would make them all 72%*65%*20% so about 9.3% each or roughly 10/1 each true odds. 

I think there is an argument that Welker might get a few more of the better quality chances but an injury in the Oakland corners to Tyvon Branch who normally covers their tight ends means Thomas might get more chances too and also Decker given he hasn't had a TD.  Irrespective I think you couldn't go wrong having a small bet on Thomas at 12/1 and Decker at 14/1.  Both are much shorter at firms that have a clue.  Realise Fred is limited with Paddy power but figured some regulars here might be looking for an interest.

Cheers Red, small sweat for me.
I'll put £5 on both for Fred as I'm sure Tikay would want them. We can settle up in the morning.
 
£5 win Thomas @ 12/1 + £5 Thomas @ 14/1 for first TD scorer in Oakland @ Denver for Fred with Paddy Power.

[LeedsRhodesy]

Morning Guys!!

Having a quick look at the the +points and what does everyone think about Leyton Orient +20 points at 14/1 is screaming out at us?

So far they have won 5-1 away and 3-0 at home,  last season then finished  7th on 71 points +20 would of given them 91 points were Donny picked up only 84 points

God i am loving this bet now!!!! please please please tell me you backed it??

[JaffaCake]

Just catching up with my admin after a busy weekend (ie reading every post ever made on Fred, as I have since day one!) and wanted to post thanks to u lovely chaps wishing me well/congratulating me after the GUKPT.

Sometimes I forget that everyone here is also a poker player as well as a sports betting ice cream or elder, it's like reading and contributing to Fred is what I do away from poker....not sure that's the message teeks wants on a poker forum lol.

Loved your report today Tighty, am on Desmond Decker in this NFL, let's gogogo

[claypole]

Decker booooom

[JaffaCake]

Just catching up with my admin after a busy weekend (ie reading every post ever made on Fred, as I have since day one!) and wanted to post thanks to u lovely chaps wishing me well/congratulating me after the GUKPT.

Sometimes I forget that everyone here is also a poker player as well as a sports betting ice cream or elder, it's like reading and contributing to Fred is what I do away from poker....not sure that's the message teeks wants on a poker forum lol.

Loved your report today Tighty, am on Desmond Decker in this NFL, let's gogogo

Oioiiiiii, chalk up another pint owed to redarmi in a couple a weeks, top man, tx for the posting and also explanation of this one and thursday's found all the maths very interesting and made the bet attractive

[claypole]

Yeah likewise to Jeff - Redarmi, cheeky £30 paid my ukipt entries for the night...beers at Wimbledon dogs on me

Ty vm

[TheDazzler]

Wait, what? Decker got the 1st TD?
Sheeesh, you do something nice for someone, go for a snooze, wake up and you owe Tikay £65. Such is life
Funny actually now that I look at my post. I actually posted that I backed Thomas x 2 but I can confirm (after a nervous check) that I backed Thomas and Decker.

As the world sleeps, Fred will awake.........£65 richer.
Pm me your Stars name Teeks.

Cheers Red.