Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

Obv backing the promoted sides has shown a huge profit since premiership started- spurs were smashed because the handicap was out of line compared to other firms. And smashed probably wasn't even a lot of bets bear in mind

I did think the Cardiff bet looked fine, the one the other day at +7 seemed a tougher ask.  Do you know what the average points you need to win the Premiership on handicap is?  I'd take the overs on 90.  

What was the +7 one? Don't know but I'd defo bet over 90. Assume mid 90s would be a really good marker and top few everytime.

[Dubai]

 Newcastle romped it year before last, and 2 promoted sides finished in top 4

[rfgqqabc]

Newcastle romped it year before last, and 2 promoted sides finished in top 4

Momentum in football? The amount of double promotions in previous years certainly makes me suspect something but its very hard to quantify.

[McGlashan]

It's interesting how each market works out. Last season Man United won on Betfair at 89+2, with Everton 1 behind on +27 and West Brom third.

[Doobs]

Obv backing the promoted sides has shown a huge profit since premiership started- spurs were smashed because the handicap was out of line compared to other firms. And smashed probably wasn't even a lot of bets bear in mind

I did think the Cardiff bet looked fine, the one the other day at +7 seemed a tougher ask.  Do you know what the average points you need to win the Premiership on handicap is?  I'd take the overs on 90.  

What was the +7 one? Don't know but I'd defo bet over 90. Assume mid 90s would be a really good marker and top few everytime.

It was Kidderminster for the Conference.  

I don't think I am going to back anything, as there is a 20% overound, and the out of line ones have already been backed.  Beating a +40 Swansea looks tough to me for instance.  But 3.75/1 top 4 looks like it must be some sort of value, even if they are terrible they get 80 on handicap, and witout looking ath the spreads, 40 looks on the low side for the spread and that gets us 87.

Edit.  Spread is 37 to 38.5 at Spreadex, best not go to the dark side though.

[Dubai]

Backing promoted sides isn't a new theory or mine btw, it's been doing the rounds for years so I'm assuming bookies are pricing it up slightly different to a few years ago but haven't got figures to hand

[McGlashan]

Doobs hit the nail on the head there.

[TightEnd]

Its all interesting stuff

Anything over 40 points get Cardiff in the hunt at +47

If they were a 43-45 point side, you'd expect the each way part at least to have a real chance

My suggestion this morning was that Cardiff may be a 43-45 point side.

Let you know in nine months.....

[The Camel]

Its all interesting stuff

Anything over 40 points get Cardiff in the hunt at +47

If they were a 43-45 point side, you'd expect the each way part at least to have a real chance

My suggestion this morning was that Cardiff may be a 43-45 point side.

Let you know in nine months.....

SI have them at 36.5-38.

I think this is about right.

[TightEnd]

Its all interesting stuff

Anything over 40 points get Cardiff in the hunt at +47

If they were a 43-45 point side, you'd expect the each way part at least to have a real chance

My suggestion this morning was that Cardiff may be a 43-45 point side.

Let you know in nine months.....

SI have them at 36.5-38.

I think this is about right.

no problem

On this, I am against the consensus shown by the spread. Views make markets.

[Doobs]

Its all interesting stuff

Anything over 40 points get Cardiff in the hunt at +47

If they were a 43-45 point side, you'd expect the each way part at least to have a real chance

My suggestion this morning was that Cardiff may be a 43-45 point side.

Let you know in nine months.....

Have decided to have a small each way nibble.  BetVictor do seem out of line on a few teams, and most have had the prices adjusted downwards.  The two that haven't are Cardiff and Fulham, so have done a little bit on both each way.  

How bad are Hull City Tigers ? Given most handicaps look a bit high there, then the fact BetVictor have the joint biggest handicap probably isn't that significant.  25/1 tho.

[Eso Kral]

Its all interesting stuff

Anything over 40 points get Cardiff in the hunt at +47

If they were a 43-45 point side, you'd expect the each way part at least to have a real chance

My suggestion this morning was that Cardiff may be a 43-45 point side.

Let you know in nine months.....

SI have them at 36.5-38.

I think this is about right.

no problem

On this, I am against the consensus shown by the spread. Views make markets.

So your view of my team Cardiff +52 in the handicap thing is that I have a good shout? 

[TightEnd]

Its all interesting stuff

Anything over 40 points get Cardiff in the hunt at +47

If they were a 43-45 point side, you'd expect the each way part at least to have a real chance

My suggestion this morning was that Cardiff may be a 43-45 point side.

Let you know in nine months.....

SI have them at 36.5-38.

I think this is about right.

no problem

On this, I am against the consensus shown by the spread. Views make markets.

So your view of my team Cardiff +52 in the handicap thing is that I have a good shout? 

Absolutely. Quizmaster error alert.

[LeedsRhodesy]

Morning Guys!!

Having a quick look at the the +points and what does everyone think about Leyton Orient +20 points at 14/1 is screaming out at us?

So far they have won 5-1 away and 3-0 at home,  last season then finished  7th on 71 points +20 would of given them 91 points were Donny picked up only 84 points

[Tal]

Morning??!

How long did it take you to type that message, Mr Rhodesy?

Were you too busy sorting your vast collection of specialist interest pictures into the Dewey Decimal System?

(We like spreadsheets, here)