Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

....... on betfair but I am not sure if that is the fixed odds arm or not but it is the oddschecker bit.

Oddschecker appears to be showing exchange odds less 5% commission in their comparison pages. 

[TightEnd]

Not a thread bet, or a betting medium but on the left is Sir Ben Ainslie. Team US was 8-1 down in the America's cup, first to 9. Emergency call to Sir Ben. America win 9-8. Sports Personality of the year anyone?*

Click to see full-size image.

Arsenal win the League Cup last night, such were their celebrations.

Click to see full-size image.

Another night, another win



Mannarino beats Almagro



Derbyshire on the brink of relegation



Gospel Choir the highlight for us at Goodwood




* As long as its not Dai Greene

[tikay]

Julien Quesne can be backed on Betfair at 170 for the Dunhill Links golf. That appears to be a ridiculous price for a player who won last week's Italian Open and came 7th the previous week in the KLM Open.

That does seem crazy, & beats the books by a considerable margin. Bit of a dart, but worth £10, surely? Current Betty price is now 130.

Definitely go 125/1 each way with coral rather than 130/1 on Betfair if you do this.

You get 5 places quarter odds.

Corals have suspended betting, as far as I can see.

Betfair "Top 5" price is 25/1. Their current win price is 160.

What now?

[tikay]

....... on betfair but I am not sure if that is the fixed odds arm or not but it is the oddschecker bit.

Oddschecker appears to be showing exchange odds less 5% commission in their comparison pages. 

Wow, never realised that - useful to know. Thanks.

[tikay]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £497.14

Outstanding Bets £2832.20

Free bets ONE William Hill use by 2nd Oct

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=26


A profit of £43 yesterday

* Mannarino beat Almagro in the tennis at 9/5 for a £36 profit

* At Goodwood 2 winners, a second and two losers for a total profit of just under £50

In the loser column, WBA's failure to beat Arsenal for -£18 which completed a nap hand of incorrect League cup results this week. The one we didn't do, but debated a lot? Birmingham beat Swansea 3-0.

In addition the Kansas City Royals were knocked out of the playoff picture with a loss last night so the oldest position on the book was marked down as a £20 loss

There is likely to be a £100 loss coming on Middlesex too, as its odds on we'll get done on this last game of the season

Warwickshire 391-9d Derbyshire 44-5. Ouch. Look to the skies over Derby and hope, I reckon

Durham 164 Sussex 328 Durham 2-0 Semi-ouch. Similar protestations to the rain gods at Hove,


The Tampa Bay Rays beat the Yankees 8-3 last night, six wins in a row. With the Indians and Rangers also winning, its 2 from 3 for the play-offs

Tampa Bay Rays    89    69    .563    -1    
Cleveland Indians    88    70    .557    --
----------------------
Texas Rangers    87    71    .551    1

I'll spare us what hapens if there is a tie in 4 games time, for now







 

Good grief, we REALLY need it to rain today!

[Tal]

Apparently, the Sussex game was stopped for fog yesterday. That can't happen often.

[tikay]

Apparently, the Sussex game was stopped for fog yesterday. That can't happen often.

Not sure, but in Sussex, that is commonly known as fret, or sea fret, & often happens when the tide turns, I believe.

Up north, & in Scottish parts, they call it haar.  

The terms specifically refer to coastal fog I believe.

 

[tikay]

QIPCO Champion Stakes

This is paraphrasing from a couple of previews etc


Frankel won this last year at 2/11

In the previous ten years no horse under 7/2 has won, average winning price is 19/2 (last 3 years Ascot, before that at Newmarket)

Why? The theory goes that a lot of the horses who run in it  have had long seasons, and by the time the major back end races come around do not run to form. Unexposed or fresh horses improve and beat them

In the market this year you have 3+ horses at the top of the heap that may not run in this. Other targets, including the Arc

These would include the Fugue, Intello and Al Kazeem

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/champion-stakes/winner


So the race may cut up, and we want a fresh horse at a price that we know will run

Mukhadram

- Just failed to beat Al Kazeem at Royal Ascot. We know therefore it has Ascot form. Could use identical tactics in this - front running

- Was cut up in the Eclipse in finishing 3rd, 3 lengths back

- Won at York as expected at odds on


then Haggas put the horse away, with an intention stated in interviews at the time "to come back fresh for the Champion"

Last run was 29th July

It is a certain runner, barring injury.

At 12-1 it is the belief from these previews that as the race cuts up it could start at 5 or 6-1

Timeform has it 6 points below the favourites in rating, but as I have said

- We know it runs
- We don't know how many of the others above it run
- Its fresh, and the higher rated horses less so


I don't get a lot of time to look at racing, but I've spent an hour on this and I think the horse fits the profile of the type of horse we go for ante-post perfectly

Of course, I will bow to the opinions of more experienced judges than I

I recommend £20 e/w Mukhadram at 12-1 (Boylesports probably, though Stan James have e/w paying first 4)

CONFIRMATION ONLY

£20 EW @ 12/1, Boylesports, (qtr odds, 1,2,3) MUKHADRAM, Champion Stakes.

Great piece of research there Rich, the price MUST shorten imo. Thanks.

ON


25 Sep 2013 14:19

119/118

 Champion Stakes - Champion Stakes

Mukhadram



e/w Single

12/1

40.00

[Tal]

Apparently, the Sussex game was stopped for fog yesterday. That can't happen often.

Not sure, but in Sussex, that is commonly known as fret, or sea fret, & often happens when the tide turns, I believe.

Up north, & in Scottish parts, they call it haar.  

The terms specifically refer to coastal fog I believe.

 

In Manchester in the Nineties, they used to have Mad Fret

 

[tikay]

QIPCO Champion Stakes

This is paraphrasing from a couple of previews etc


Frankel won this last year at 2/11

In the previous ten years no horse under 7/2 has won, average winning price is 19/2 (last 3 years Ascot, before that at Newmarket)

Why? The theory goes that a lot of the horses who run in it  have had long seasons, and by the time the major back end races come around do not run to form. Unexposed or fresh horses improve and beat them

In the market this year you have 3+ horses at the top of the heap that may not run in this. Other targets, including the Arc

These would include the Fugue, Intello and Al Kazeem

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/champion-stakes/winner


So the race may cut up, and we want a fresh horse at a price that we know will run

Mukhadram

- Just failed to beat Al Kazeem at Royal Ascot. We know therefore it has Ascot form. Could use identical tactics in this - front running

- Was cut up in the Eclipse in finishing 3rd, 3 lengths back

- Won at York as expected at odds on


then Haggas put the horse away, with an intention stated in interviews at the time "to come back fresh for the Champion"

Last run was 29th July

It is a certain runner, barring injury.

At 12-1 it is the belief from these previews that as the race cuts up it could start at 5 or 6-1

Timeform has it 6 points below the favourites in rating, but as I have said

- We know it runs
- We don't know how many of the others above it run
- Its fresh, and the higher rated horses less so


I don't get a lot of time to look at racing, but I've spent an hour on this and I think the horse fits the profile of the type of horse we go for ante-post perfectly

Of course, I will bow to the opinions of more experienced judges than I

I recommend £20 e/w Mukhadram at 12-1 (Boylesports probably, though Stan James have e/w paying first 4)

Like!

Rather than £20 EW, though, I would always rather hit it harder and win only if we're expecting a shorter price on the day about a near-certain runner. Better to go for £100 win, with a view to laying some back.

See Buttermeup have cut the price already. How much do we think they laid? Really? Or the 'odds compilers' just taking precuations...

CONFIRMATION ONLY

A further £80, WIN ONLY, Mukhadram, Champion Stakes. Possibly with a view to trading.

This one is down to Chompy, who is in charge of Trading Strategy for this upcoming debacle, as it would be a shame to spoil Tighty's ROI. We destroyed Chompy's ROI with that £1,400 LAY, so a bit more won't hurt.

£80 WIN @ 12/1, Boylesports, Mukhadram.

ON

25 Sep 2013 15:16

120/119

 Champion Stakes - Champion Stakes

Mukhadram



Single

12/1

80.00

 

[tikay]

like a big priced one at Ponte tommorow

£15 win TRADE SECRET PADDY POWER 16/1 (14/1 GENERAL FINE)

Evanescent will be fav and thats fair enough more to come a big possibility but is drawn in the car park and possibly needs much softer ground

Lothair is second in been progressive but no excuses in midweek in a slightly weaker race, chance but not thrown in

Others have claims but Trade Secret is best after a decent break, likes good or better ground, this time of year and is now fairly handicapped again. That is all in the price, what i dont think is the trainers sudden return to form.

Mel Brittain had a good start to the season and then went very quiet, the last few days signal a return to form i think.

Position SP
1/13 13/2
2/13 28/1
3/14 25/1
3/15 33/1
4/9 33/1
2/10 5/1

As that shows most have run above market expectation, with the last four all running today hopefully the return to form will stay unspotted for a bit longer

Alternatively he may go back to be quite a poor trainer but it looks worth mentioning.

FWIW he has defence council in this race as well but he does not like starting which is not ideal, he also has Lucky lodge running earlier in the card with a good chance.

CONFIRMATION ONLY

Great research, lets hope the value materialises, thanks Horsey.

£15 WIN @ 14/1, Betvictor, Trade Secret, 5.15 Pontefract.

ON



25/09/2013 GBP 15.00 Single: 10 TRADE SECRET @ 14/1




Betid 34061905300 Time: 23:10 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 15.00

[tikay]

Man Utd are available at 5/4 tomorrow, to beat Liverpool in the League Cup, at Old Trafford. Quite rare to see them that price at home.

Yes yes, they don't take the League Cup seriously, but there ought surely be a backlash after Sunday's debacle v Man City? Hard to imagine they won't be trying to salvage some pride. Back to back defeats to Man C & Liverpool would not go down too well.

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/man-utd-v-liverpool/winner

Indeed - one of those ones where perhaps pressure on the manager dictates team selection.  Ditto for Norwich at Watford at the game I am going to tonight.

Tighty mentioned in his Report that we were 0 for 5 in League Cup bets this week, having missed the only winner that was put up.

It is actually worse than that - I backed this for Fred after Mr Dung said he agreed, but forgot to Post accordingly, so we can't really have it for Fred.

Another missed winner.  

[horseplayer]

Amat now has 3 bookings this season

Small problem all in league cup or Europa League

[tikay]

Amat now has 3 bookings this season

Small problem all in league cup or Europa League

We might just be running bad at the moment. No worries, it happens.

[Tal]

Amat now has 3 bookings this season

Small problem all in league cup or Europa League

We might just be running bad at the moment. No worries, it happens.

Still a monkey up, though. Only one more Saturday swing/swongathon left, too.