Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

best of luck iron

[horseplayer]

As for free bets im not sure how much longer hills will entertain thread with them?

Personally i find them a bit formulaic for my liking and they are obviously a lot of work, maybe if somebody took charge of that dept it may help?

[MahoganyVic]

Villarreal 1 up after a minute.

Good luck Iron!

[tikay]

tikay did you put redarmi's NFL bet on for tonight?

The first quarter points (odd)? Yes, got £50 on. Thought I posted it. Will check, but we are deffo on.

[tikay]

OMG i am a little excited i have 3 legs of a lucky 15 up ok only 50p ew but 3 winners so far and got tannhauser gate in the 21:15  using my 1 time for a 4 figure return please

just wish i had the funds on betfair too green out but bet is on laddies
i could be getting the dreaded email tomorrow after just 24 hours on the site

I doubt you will get an e-mail if you are doing Lucky 15's, even if you cop the lot tonight.

Good luck.

[Marky147]

OMG i am a little excited i have 3 legs of a lucky 15 up ok only 50p ew but 3 winners so far and got tannhauser gate in the 21:15  using my 1 time for a 4 figure return please

just wish i had the funds on betfair too green out but bet is on laddies
i could be getting the dreaded email tomorrow after just 24 hours on the site

You should have a nice bit of profit from 3 winners anyway Iron, good luck for the last leg!

[tikay]

The total is the same in both games Tikay so we should bet it in both.

It worked out better for tonight - PP allowed me £50.71!

So....

I took £50 @ 5/6, Paddy Power, 49ers @ Rams, First Quarter Points ODD. (Down to redarmi)

ON


NFL Matches San Francisco 49ers At St. Louis Rams
27-09-2013 01:25
1st Quarter Total Points Odd/Even
Odd @ 5/6


Your Bets





Win
Single: Odd @ 5/6
1 line at £50.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
 Potential returns: £91.67
No: O/23146337/0000357
 

This one, Tighty?

[TightEnd]

The total is the same in both games Tikay so we should bet it in both.

It worked out better for tonight - PP allowed me £50.71!

So....

I took £50 @ 5/6, Paddy Power, 49ers @ Rams, First Quarter Points ODD. (Down to redarmi)

ON


NFL Matches San Francisco 49ers At St. Louis Rams
27-09-2013 01:25
1st Quarter Total Points Odd/Even
Odd @ 5/6


Your Bets





Win
Single: Odd @ 5/6
1 line at £50.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
 Potential returns: £91.67
No: O/23146337/0000357
 

This one, Tighty?

thank you I missed it

and you have taken the wembley one off thread or both for on here?

[Ironside]

OMG i am a little excited i have 3 legs of a lucky 15 up ok only 50p ew but 3 winners so far and got tannhauser gate in the 21:15  using my 1 time for a 4 figure return please

just wish i had the funds on betfair too green out but bet is on laddies
i could be getting the dreaded email tomorrow after just 24 hours on the site

You should have a nice bit of profit from 3 winners anyway Iron, good luck for the last leg!

already getting 200 returned according to odds calulator over 1300 if the last can win

[Ironside]

doesnt even look as if its fit for a tesco burger

[tikay]

The total is the same in both games Tikay so we should bet it in both.

It worked out better for tonight - PP allowed me £50.71!

So....

I took £50 @ 5/6, Paddy Power, 49ers @ Rams, First Quarter Points ODD. (Down to redarmi)

ON


NFL Matches San Francisco 49ers At St. Louis Rams
27-09-2013 01:25
1st Quarter Total Points Odd/Even
Odd @ 5/6


Your Bets





Win
Single: Odd @ 5/6
1 line at £50.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
 Potential returns: £91.67
No: O/23146337/0000357
 

This one, Tighty?

thank you I missed it

and you have taken the wembley one off thread or both for on here?

Think we should definitely leave it on here - the bet is equally relevant to any NFL game. I'll try & top up on Sunday (day of the game, they may increase my limit). We should try & do it every time they offer it, imo.

[redarmi]

Im not sure it is equally relevant to any game.  You need a relatively low first quarter total for it to be value.  Pretty sure it wouldn't be value in the Eagles/Broncos game at the weekend for example but it is fine to leave it for the London game as that has same total as tonights game.

[Doobs]

Im not sure it is equally relevant to any game.  You need a relatively low first quarter total for it to be value.  Pretty sure it wouldn't be value in the Eagles/Broncos game at the weekend for example but it is fine to leave it for the London game as that has same total as tonights game.

Stuart.

I really don't think this works.

I have loaded week 1 to 3 results for this year and last into a spreadsheet.  I used weeks 1 to 3 as there are 16 games in each week that meant I could repeat formulae when cutting and pasting.

In that sample (96 games), there are more even number results in the first quarter (55 to 41).  Whilst there isn't a lot of difference between the average final score if the match starts with an even first quarter or an odd one, but my sample gave a higher average final score in those matches that started with an odd total in the first quarter.

Whilst this sample isn't big enough to suggest we should switch in to backing evens at 5/6, I think it is enough to suggest backing odds in the first quarter at 5/6 is an error. 

Obviously we should stick with the ones already placed, I just don't think we should rush to put any more on unless somebody can show it works on a really big sample.

FWIW 0-0 seemed more common than I'd naturally expect and there are a whole bunch of 7-7s out there.

[redarmi]

Im not sure it is equally relevant to any game.  You need a relatively low first quarter total for it to be value.  Pretty sure it wouldn't be value in the Eagles/Broncos game at the weekend for example but it is fine to leave it for the London game as that has same total as tonights game.

Stuart.

I really don't think this works.

I have loaded week 1 to 3 results for this year and last into a spreadsheet.  I used weeks 1 to 3 as there are 16 games in each week that meant I could repeat formulae when cutting and pasting.

In that sample (96 games), there are more even number results in the first quarter (55 to 41).  Whilst there isn't a lot of difference between the average final score if the match starts with an even first quarter or an odd one, but my sample gave a higher average final score in those matches that started with an odd total in the first quarter.

Whilst this sample isn't big enough to suggest we should switch in to backing evens at 5/6, I think it is enough to suggest backing odds in the first quarter at 5/6 is an error. 

Obviously we should stick with the ones already placed, I just don't think we should rush to put any more on unless somebody can show it works on a really big sample.

FWIW 0-0 seemed more common than I'd naturally expect and there are a whole bunch of 7-7s out there.

I am not sure it isn't 50-50 (or close) for games as an overall population though.  You would definitely have to have games where the first quarter total had a favourite under 7.5.  For quite a few games there would be a favourite over that number and the point of the bet, from my perspective would be to aim it at those games.  Also I am pretty sure you would need a bigger sample to be sure.  That said I am not totally sure but I ran it past a guy that used to work for Las Vegas Sport Consultants and he suggested that odd was an even bigger favourite than I thought.  Out of interest what is the distribution of the scores below 7.5?

[Doobs]

Im not sure it is equally relevant to any game.  You need a relatively low first quarter total for it to be value.  Pretty sure it wouldn't be value in the Eagles/Broncos game at the weekend for example but it is fine to leave it for the London game as that has same total as tonights game.

Stuart.

I really don't think this works.

I have loaded week 1 to 3 results for this year and last into a spreadsheet.  I used weeks 1 to 3 as there are 16 games in each week that meant I could repeat formulae when cutting and pasting.

In that sample (96 games), there are more even number results in the first quarter (55 to 41).  Whilst there isn't a lot of difference between the average final score if the match starts with an even first quarter or an odd one, but my sample gave a higher average final score in those matches that started with an odd total in the first quarter.

Whilst this sample isn't big enough to suggest we should switch in to backing evens at 5/6, I think it is enough to suggest backing odds in the first quarter at 5/6 is an error. 

Obviously we should stick with the ones already placed, I just don't think we should rush to put any more on unless somebody can show it works on a really big sample.

FWIW 0-0 seemed more common than I'd naturally expect and there are a whole bunch of 7-7s out there.

I am not sure it isn't 50-50 (or close) for games as an overall population though.  You would definitely have to have games where the first quarter total had a favourite under 7.5.  For quite a few games there would be a favourite over that number and the point of the bet, from my perspective would be to aim it at those games.  Also I am pretty sure you would need a bigger sample to be sure.  That said I am not totally sure but I ran it past a guy that used to work for Las Vegas Sport Consultants and he suggested that odd was an even bigger favourite than I thought.  Out of interest what is the distribution of the scores below 7.5?

I will have a look tomorrow.  I need to get off now. 

Cheers