Tips for Tikay

[Simon Galloway]

My vote is for the free bets to stay on.  Here's my two cents

I always thought that the original purpose of Fred was to turn an ice cream into an advantage punter and have some fun along the way.  It has evolved to mean some other things to some and not others, which is all fine, everyone can get out of it what they can, but as Custodian of the Roll, it is ultimately up to Tony which direction it goes by way of which bets get struck and which ones don't.

In an ideal world with no time or money constraints, ofc you'd just bet every miniscule edge going.  Given there are restrictions to both time and money, then the bets that take the least amount of time and/or money being tied up with the highest possible return should be struck first... and then right down to the very marginal stuff at the end.

In other words, don't take 12 hours of research and tie money up for a month finding a 5% edge when there's an 8% instant edge staring you in the face.  Low hanging fruit, call it what you will, maybe it dies out, maybe there's enough offers going around for ever.  But while it is there, surely you just harvest what you can when you have the bandwidth to get on.

It doesn't necessarily make it a "tip" as in the thread title, but knowing that Ladbrokes are paying out double odds on a race is a better "tip" than hearing that O'Leary just bought a train ticket to Sunderland?

[The Camel]

My vote is for the free bets to stay on.  Here's my two cents

I always thought that the original purpose of Fred was to turn an ice cream into an advantage punter and have some fun along the way.  It has evolved to mean some other things to some and not others, which is all fine, everyone can get out of it what they can, but as Custodian of the Roll, it is ultimately up to Tony which direction it goes by way of which bets get struck and which ones don't.

In an ideal world with no time or money constraints, ofc you'd just bet every miniscule edge going.  Given there are restrictions to both time and money, then the bets that take the least amount of time and/or money being tied up with the highest possible return should be struck first... and then right down to the very marginal stuff at the end.

In other words, don't take 12 hours of research and tie money up for a month finding a 5% edge when there's an 8% instant edge staring you in the face.  Low hanging fruit, call it what you will, maybe it dies out, maybe there's enough offers going around for ever.  But while it is there, surely you just harvest what you can when you have the bandwidth to get on.

It doesn't necessarily make it a "tip" as in the thread title, but knowing that Ladbrokes are paying out double odds on a race is a better "tip" than hearing that O'Leary just bought a train ticket to Sunderland?

Liked you fillet mignon picture better than a bloody hamburger.

Much more classy.

[Evilpengwinz]

Apologies if anything has already been posted about this, because I cba to read through the last 30-40 pages to check, but...

Wembley game - Vikings FB Jerome Felton is back for this game after a 3 game suspension, and I read a very interesting stat on NFL.com, regarding Adrian Peterson.

"The 2012 rushing leader averaged an eye-popping 7.25 yards per carry out of two-back sets with Felton as the primary lead blocker last season. Peterson failed to top 4.0 yards per carry in single-back sets."

He's been averaging over 90 yards per game this season anyway (Although Peterson's 93 yards against Detroit included a 78 yard TD run), and with Felton returning at Fullback, I expect Adrian Peterson's production to significantly increase in this game, even if Ponder being rubbish allows teams to have 8 men in the box to stop the run, and not have to worry so much about giving up big yardage from Ponder throwing the football.

Suggest Adrian Peterson over 86.5 Rushing Yards @ 5/6 with Paddy Power, although idk how much £££ to suggest betting.

[The Camel]

Paddy have a new NFL offer this week.

Pay double odds if the first td scorer scores again.

Betting on Lynch, Peterson, Gore, McCoy etc suddenly becomes a deal more attractive.

[tikay]

Apologies if anything has already been posted about this, because I cba to read through the last 30-40 pages to check, but...

Wembley game - Vikings FB Jerome Felton is back for this game after a 3 game suspension, and I read a very interesting stat on NFL.com, regarding Adrian Peterson.

"The 2012 rushing leader averaged an eye-popping 7.25 yards per carry out of two-back sets with Felton as the primary lead blocker last season. Peterson failed to top 4.0 yards per carry in single-back sets."

He's been averaging over 90 yards per game this season anyway (Although Peterson's 93 yards against Detroit included a 78 yard TD run), and with Felton returning at Fullback, I expect Adrian Peterson's production to significantly increase in this game, even if Ponder being rubbish allows teams to have 8 men in the box to stop the run, and not have to worry so much about giving up big yardage from Ponder throwing the football.

Suggest Adrian Peterson over 86.5 Rushing Yards @ 5/6 with Paddy Power, although idk how much £££ to suggest betting.

Thanks Andy.

Can Team NFL comment, please?

[redarmi]

Interesting late scratch tonight of Isaiah Pead by the Rams.  He is their backup RB and Daryl Richardson got hurt last week.  he will play but their backup RB that might get some carries and apparently is looking very good is Zac Stacy who nisn't listed by the firm for first or last TD scorer.  Think it is worth throwing a dart at Any other Ram to score first and last with Ladbrokes at 22-1 given you seem to get the D with them too.

[tikay]

Interesting late scratch tonight of Isaiah Pead by the Rams.  He is their backup RB and Daryl Richardson got hurt last week.  he will play but their backup RB that might get some carries and apparently is looking very good is Zac Stacy who nisn't listed by the firm for first or last TD scorer.  Think it is worth throwing a dart at Any other Ram to score first and last with Ladbrokes at 22-1 given you seem to get the D with them too.

Thanks Stu.

"first & last" TD Scorer?

Is that from EITHER Team, or just the Rams?

The "Any Other Rams" (either team) is 22/1 - for which I am Restricted to.......£2.50. (!)

The "Any Other Rams" (Rams only) is 11/1 - for which I am restricted to £4.50.

Can you clarify, please?

[redarmi]

Guess we missed it.  I had to run for pizza....

[tikay]

Guess we missed it.  I had to run for pizza....

No, I got on as above, but in neither case is it "first and last", it is "First".

[tikay]

The total is the same in both games Tikay so we should bet it in both.

It worked out better for tonight - PP allowed me £50.71!

So....

I took £50 @ 5/6, Paddy Power, 49ers @ Rams, First Quarter Points ODD. (Down to redarmi)

ON


NFL Matches San Francisco 49ers At St. Louis Rams
27-09-2013 01:25
1st Quarter Total Points Odd/Even
Odd @ 5/6


Your Bets





Win
Single: Odd @ 5/6
1 line at £50.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
 Potential returns: £91.67
No: O/23146337/0000357
 

WINNER!

[redarmi]

Guess we missed it.  I had to run for pizza....

No, I got on as above, but in neither case is it "first and last", it is "First".

Oh I see....no they are separate markets but first is fine.  It doesnt look like he is getting touches but he might and we still have the defenses.

[TL900]

Chiefs -4 vs Giants, thoughts?

[Omm]

Can I suggest £25 on Radiator New 13:40 @ 11/10 Hills Mobile before the price goes.

[tikay]

Can I suggest £25 on Radiator New 13:40 @ 11/10 Hills Mobile before the price goes.

Thanks Mr Omm.

Is this bet based upon the "Free Bet Offer", or is there a seperate motive for the bet? I have not seen the "Offer" advertised on the website today.

Wm Hill, amongst others, go (near best) 11/10, only StanJames (6/5) ore better.

You may or may not be aware, but Fred has a considerable forward interest in Radiator.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newmarket/13:40/winner

[Doobs]

Can I suggest £25 on Radiator New 13:40 @ 11/10 Hills Mobile before the price goes.

Thanks Mr Omm.

Is this bet based upon the "Free Bet Offer", or is there a seperate motive for the bet? I have not seen the "Offer" advertised on the website today.

Wm Hill, amongst others, go (near best) 11/10, only StanJames (6/5) ore better.

You may or may not be aware, but Fred has a considerable forward interest in Radiator.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newmarket/13:40/winner

I haven't seen the offer either, but when I just looked Radiator was bang on 2.1 on Betfair, so with best price guarantee we must get a smidgen of value.  The races are on channel 4, so I would expect to see the offer.

My instinct is always to back Andre Fabre horses in races like this though.  Obviously hope Radiator crushes today though.

Looking forward to today regardless.