Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

more than happy with the start

the main angle being a possible drop in performance from the european contenders when europe kicks in

Atheltico started better than i thought Simeone is a genius

horsey,

Hoe do you think Napoli are coping in Serie A? Only 4 games in, (all won) I know, but have you formed a view on them yet?

Not been able to watch as much as i would like as of yet

But was very impressed against Milan best quality game i have seen in any league this season so far

[TightEnd]

All hail Greg the leg. A field goal brought redarmi's bet home
 


18 years and 26 days old. Dom Sibley, given 4 days off school to play and mentioned on the thread about a year ago became the youngest ever County Championship double centurion, the second youngest Englishman ever to score a double century (behind WG Grace) and is a prodigous talent. Going to play over 100 tests for England and one to bookmark for run bets for 2018-2028

Click to see full-size image.

Villareal win again

Click to see full-size image.

Our 1000 Guineas hope runs today



It starts tonight, 9pm BBC1

Click to see full-size image.

[jakally]

Two bets for your consideration.

Huddersfield v Blackpool (Fri evening match), under 11 corners Bet365 £25 @ 5/6.
Both these teams are solid championship sides, and are reasonably closely matched.
Should be a tight game with not a huge amount of goals. (An early goal is usually bad for the unders on corners).
Neither are particularly dominant sides...... corners can rack up when a side goes behind and has the ability to step it up in terms of possession/territory.
A little bit of value - think this should be evens or just above.

Small sample size but from last 50 league games involving either of these sides 31 have been under 11 corners.

Bournemouth v Blackburn, Bournemouth to win, Bet365/BetVictor £25 @ 6/4
Teams equally rated (similar prices for championship outright markets).
Blackburn no great shakes, Bournemouth well managed and potentially very decent, if a little inconsistent.
Bournemouth don't grind it out which makes a result more likely - better for a team to win bet. (something like 3 home draws in last 20+ home matches).
Would have expected this to be priced at 5/4 (which it is in some spots) so a little piece of value. Would be surprised if 6/4 is still available on Saturday.

[Omm]

Can I suggest £25 on Radiator New 13:40 @ 11/10 Hills Mobile before the price goes.

Thanks Mr Omm.

Is this bet based upon the "Free Bet Offer", or is there a seperate motive for the bet? I have not seen the "Offer" advertised on the website today.

Wm Hill, amongst others, go (near best) 11/10, only StanJames (6/5) ore better.

You may or may not be aware, but Fred has a considerable forward interest in Radiator.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newmarket/13:40/winner

I haven't seen the offer either, but when I just looked Radiator was bang on 2.1 on Betfair, so with best price guarantee we must get a smidgen of value.  The races are on channel 4, so I would expect to see the offer.

My instinct is always to back Andre Fabre horses in races like this though.  Obviously hope Radiator crushes today though.

Looking forward to today regardless.

Well we need Omm to confirm the bet logic. I assume he means as part of the "Offer", but I cannot place that unrtil the site advertises it.

It may be based on some other logic though, in which case, I'd be interested to see it.

Looking at the races, if I was William Hill I wouldn't run the offer today! 

Well so far, I see no mention of it on their Site.

Well Miss France is now 5/1 in the same race on Hills, beats Betfair and you get best price guaranteed.  Just banged on a free bet myself.  I don't like opposing Radiator, but have to put my "value is value" hat on sometimes.

You used an existing Free Bet, or got on with the "Free Bet if 2nd" Offer?

Incidentally, Fred currently has 3 x £25 Free Bets in the kitty with Wm Hill.

sorry tikay should have mentioned the offer, i looked under my account/promotions on the wh app and the offer showed there this morning. That being said i would thinkdoobs recommend on the over horse should not be over looked. Put it this way, i only put it up because of the offer and prices changing to evens with alot of firms. Take no offence to whatever u choose to do or have done.

[Ironside]

Dont get bet 1 jakally you are saying you think its an evens chance but are recommending 5/6

[tikay]

Can I suggest £25 on Radiator New 13:40 @ 11/10 Hills Mobile before the price goes.

Thanks Mr Omm.

Is this bet based upon the "Free Bet Offer", or is there a seperate motive for the bet? I have not seen the "Offer" advertised on the website today.

Wm Hill, amongst others, go (near best) 11/10, only StanJames (6/5) ore better.

You may or may not be aware, but Fred has a considerable forward interest in Radiator.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newmarket/13:40/winner

I haven't seen the offer either, but when I just looked Radiator was bang on 2.1 on Betfair, so with best price guarantee we must get a smidgen of value.  The races are on channel 4, so I would expect to see the offer.

My instinct is always to back Andre Fabre horses in races like this though.  Obviously hope Radiator crushes today though.

Looking forward to today regardless.

Well we need Omm to confirm the bet logic. I assume he means as part of the "Offer", but I cannot place that unrtil the site advertises it.

It may be based on some other logic though, in which case, I'd be interested to see it.

Looking at the races, if I was William Hill I wouldn't run the offer today! 

Well so far, I see no mention of it on their Site.

Well Miss France is now 5/1 in the same race on Hills, beats Betfair and you get best price guaranteed.  Just banged on a free bet myself.  I don't like opposing Radiator, but have to put my "value is value" hat on sometimes.

You used an existing Free Bet, or got on with the "Free Bet if 2nd" Offer?

Incidentally, Fred currently has 3 x £25 Free Bets in the kitty with Wm Hill.

sorry tikay should have mentioned the offer, i looked under my account/promotions on the wh app and the offer showed there this morning. That being said i would thinkdoobs recommend on the over horse should not be over looked. Put it this way, i only put it up because of the offer and prices changing to evens with alot of firms. Take no offence to whatever u choose to do or have done.

No offence at all Ommy, I was just trying to ascertain if it was an "Offer" bet, or "just a tip", which is a different thing altogether.

I DID place the bet at the time, in anticipation of your reply. I got 11/10. WH now go Evens, but I think, in this situation, Fred can still accept the bet @ 11/10.

Later, "Miss France" was sort of suggested in the same race, (5/1 then, 9/2 now), but we are not on that at present.

We have £25 @ 11/10, Wm Hill, RADIATOR, 1.40 Newmarket, FREE BET IF 2nd

ON

27 Sep 13 / 08:12

Stake

1:40 Newmarket – Radiator @ Guaranteed Price (11/10)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000680/F

[Omm]

Can I suggest £25 on Radiator New 13:40 @ 11/10 Hills Mobile before the price goes.

Thanks Mr Omm.

Is this bet based upon the "Free Bet Offer", or is there a seperate motive for the bet? I have not seen the "Offer" advertised on the website today.

Wm Hill, amongst others, go (near best) 11/10, only StanJames (6/5) ore better.

You may or may not be aware, but Fred has a considerable forward interest in Radiator.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newmarket/13:40/winner

I haven't seen the offer either, but when I just looked Radiator was bang on 2.1 on Betfair, so with best price guarantee we must get a smidgen of value.  The races are on channel 4, so I would expect to see the offer.

My instinct is always to back Andre Fabre horses in races like this though.  Obviously hope Radiator crushes today though.

Looking forward to today regardless.

Well we need Omm to confirm the bet logic. I assume he means as part of the "Offer", but I cannot place that unrtil the site advertises it.

It may be based on some other logic though, in which case, I'd be interested to see it.

Looking at the races, if I was William Hill I wouldn't run the offer today! 

Well so far, I see no mention of it on their Site.

Well Miss France is now 5/1 in the same race on Hills, beats Betfair and you get best price guaranteed.  Just banged on a free bet myself.  I don't like opposing Radiator, but have to put my "value is value" hat on sometimes.

You used an existing Free Bet, or got on with the "Free Bet if 2nd" Offer?

Incidentally, Fred currently has 3 x £25 Free Bets in the kitty with Wm Hill.

sorry tikay should have mentioned the offer, i looked under my account/promotions on the wh app and the offer showed there this morning. That being said i would thinkdoobs recommend on the over horse should not be over looked. Put it this way, i only put it up because of the offer and prices changing to evens with alot of firms. Take no offence to whatever u choose to do or have done.

No offence at all Ommy, I was just trying to ascertain if it was an "Offer" bet, or "just a tip", which is a different thing altogether.

I DID place the bet at the time, in anticipation of your reply. I got 11/10. WH now go Evens, but I think, in this situation, Fred can still accept the bet @ 11/10.

Later, "Miss France" was sort of suggested in the same race, (5/1 then, 9/2 now), but we are not on that at present.

We have £25 @ 11/10, Wm Hill, RADIATOR, 1.40 Newmarket, FREE BET IF 2nd

ON

27 Sep 13 / 08:12

Stake

1:40 Newmarket – Radiator @ Guaranteed Price (11/10)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000680/F

great stuff, Is doobs recommending using a free bet on Miss France?

[Doobs]

Can I suggest £25 on Radiator New 13:40 @ 11/10 Hills Mobile before the price goes.

Thanks Mr Omm.

Is this bet based upon the "Free Bet Offer", or is there a seperate motive for the bet? I have not seen the "Offer" advertised on the website today.

Wm Hill, amongst others, go (near best) 11/10, only StanJames (6/5) ore better.

You may or may not be aware, but Fred has a considerable forward interest in Radiator.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newmarket/13:40/winner

I haven't seen the offer either, but when I just looked Radiator was bang on 2.1 on Betfair, so with best price guarantee we must get a smidgen of value.  The races are on channel 4, so I would expect to see the offer.

My instinct is always to back Andre Fabre horses in races like this though.  Obviously hope Radiator crushes today though.

Looking forward to today regardless.

Well we need Omm to confirm the bet logic. I assume he means as part of the "Offer", but I cannot place that unrtil the site advertises it.

It may be based on some other logic though, in which case, I'd be interested to see it.

Looking at the races, if I was William Hill I wouldn't run the offer today! 

Well so far, I see no mention of it on their Site.

Well Miss France is now 5/1 in the same race on Hills, beats Betfair and you get best price guaranteed.  Just banged on a free bet myself.  I don't like opposing Radiator, but have to put my "value is value" hat on sometimes.

You used an existing Free Bet, or got on with the "Free Bet if 2nd" Offer?

Incidentally, Fred currently has 3 x £25 Free Bets in the kitty with Wm Hill.

sorry tikay should have mentioned the offer, i looked under my account/promotions on the wh app and the offer showed there this morning. That being said i would thinkdoobs recommend on the over horse should not be over looked. Put it this way, i only put it up because of the offer and prices changing to evens with alot of firms. Take no offence to whatever u choose to do or have done.

No offence at all Ommy, I was just trying to ascertain if it was an "Offer" bet, or "just a tip", which is a different thing altogether.

I DID place the bet at the time, in anticipation of your reply. I got 11/10. WH now go Evens, but I think, in this situation, Fred can still accept the bet @ 11/10.

Later, "Miss France" was sort of suggested in the same race, (5/1 then, 9/2 now), but we are not on that at present.

We have £25 @ 11/10, Wm Hill, RADIATOR, 1.40 Newmarket, FREE BET IF 2nd

ON

27 Sep 13 / 08:12

Stake

1:40 Newmarket – Radiator @ Guaranteed Price (11/10)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000680/F

great stuff, Is doobs recommending using a free bet on Miss France?

Not anymore.  Still haven't seen any offer today.

[jakally]

Dont get bet 1 jakally you are saying you think its an evens chance but are recommending 5/6

Fair point.....really can't understand why I'm a losing punter... 

Leave it for a bit... may still be a bet but will have a look at it.
Second one is still fine though.

[tikay]

The Market is quite solid for Radiator, now Evens almost everywhere, from 11/10 earlier.

Miss France quickly went from 5/1 to as low as 7/2 in places earlier, but has now eased to a general 9/2.

[Tal]

The Market is quite solid for Radiator, now Evens almost everywhere, from 11/10 earlier.

Miss France quickly went from 5/1 to as low as 7/2 in places earlier, but has now eased to a general 9/2.

Don't think much of her chances in the swimsuit round.

[tikay]

Dont get bet 1 jakally you are saying you think its an evens chance but are recommending 5/6

Fair point.....really can't understand why I'm a losing punter... 

Leave it for a bit... may still be a bet but will have a look at it.
Second one is still fine though.

!!

Thanks Neil, will have a look at the Bournemouth coup shortly.

I seem to recall you are a bit of a football corners geek. You have only had 2 Fred Bets before, & both were on Corners, in Euro12. They financed my Vegas trip actually. Or could have.....

[Doobs]

The Market is quite solid for Radiator, now Evens almost everywhere, from 11/10 earlier.

Miss France quickly went from 5/1 to as low as 7/2 in places earlier, but has now eased to a general 9/2.

Don't think much of her chances in the swimsuit round.

This filly was born in 2011, would suggest narrowing your search to Miss France 2011.

[Simon Galloway]

?

[jakally]

Dont get bet 1 jakally you are saying you think its an evens chance but are recommending 5/6

Fair point.....really can't understand why I'm a losing punter...  

Leave it for a bit... may still be a bet but will have a look at it.
Second one is still fine though.

!!

Thanks Neil, will have a look at the Bournemouth coup shortly.

I seem to recall you are a bit of a football corners geek. You have only had 2 Fred Bets before, & both were on Corners, in Euro12. They financed my Vegas trip actually. Or could have.....

Hmmm. Thought you had forgotten about that.
I kind of left corners alone for a while as I didn't have the time to look at them properly.
Just building some data up recently, championship specific. Still got some work to do, so there is room for a little error at the minute.
Think some books price these up a bit lazily, and don't always take into account the spread of results for specific types of teams. I'm a punting ice-cream though, so factor this in with anything I put up.

Got some figures tangled in the OP as some sites are quoting <10 and some <11, and was working on both. All these numbers are very confusing at my age.

Corners bet is still a tiny bit of value.
We are currently offered 1.83 (5/6) and it's probably 1.75 - 1.80.
I'm having a little punt but think it's one you can take or leave.