Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Anyone with a Padraig account...

Island Remade, 6-1, 6.50 Kempton tomorrow. Knock yourself out.

11/4 still available......

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/kempton/18:50/winner

[TightEnd]

Arsenal have won their last 4 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).
   
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Napoli's last 6 games in the Champions League (including qualifiers).    

Arsenal have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).    

Napoli have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).


Napoli and Arsenal experts on here, is there any mileage in going for "outlier" high scoring match results etc?

Both teams to score, over 2.5 etc both 4/6 or shorter so the above stats are pretty much priced in


Something like over 4/5 goals at 9/2 BetVictor (for illustrative purposes.....)

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

In a couple of hours time Ferrer plays Pospisil in China. They have never met before and Ferrer is a big favourite to win based on his higher ranking. I like to oppose players over the age of 30 when they play up and coming players who are yet to reach their peak and this seems like a decent opportunity. I would give Ferrer the benefit if this was a clay court but it is a hard surface. On the 3 occasions that Ferrer has played this tournament he has reached the final once, but on the other 2 he lost in the first round.

Suggest £20 Pospisil @ 4-1 with sportingbet.

[Karabiner]

Arsenal have won their last 4 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).
   
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Napoli's last 6 games in the Champions League (including qualifiers).    

Arsenal have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).    

Napoli have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).


Napoli and Arsenal experts on here, is there any mileage in going for "outlier" high scoring match results etc?

Both teams to score, over 2.5 etc both 4/6 or shorter so the above stats are pretty much priced in


Something like over 4/5 goals at 9/2 BetVictor (for illustrative purposes.....)

I fancy tonight's game will be a rather cagey affair with Napoli sitting deep and looking to hit Arsenal on the counter and a lot of midfield possession.

My first inclination is that it will be low-scoring, 1-0 if I were forced to have a bet, and 1-1, or 2-1 the most likely alternatives imo.

One other thing is that many of those stats were pre-Benitez and we know how tight he normally likes to keep things.

[Doobs]

Arsenal have won their last 4 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).
   
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Napoli's last 6 games in the Champions League (including qualifiers).    

Arsenal have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).    

Napoli have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).


Napoli and Arsenal experts on here, is there any mileage in going for "outlier" high scoring match results etc?

Both teams to score, over 2.5 etc both 4/6 or shorter so the above stats are pretty much priced in


Something like over 4/5 goals at 9/2 BetVictor (for illustrative purposes.....)

I fancy tonight's game will be a rather cagey affair with Napoli sitting deep and looking to hit Arsenal on the counter and a lot of midfield possession.

My first inclination is that it will be low-scoring, 1-0 if I were forced to have a bet, and 1-1, or 2-1 the most likely alternatives imo.

I think this is over 4.5.  I don't really like it at all, I don't think 5 goals happens that often.

I looked back at Arsenal's results this season, and it hasn't happened once, Napoli have done it in one game in 7.  I haven't run the stats, but I imagine the earlier Champion's League games are more cagey than the latter ones too.

I don't like it much, but if you do it, you could lay the less than 4.5 on Betfair at 1.21, which should be better, even after commission.

[tikay]

Arsenal have won their last 4 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).
   
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Napoli's last 6 games in the Champions League (including qualifiers).    

Arsenal have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).    

Napoli have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).


Napoli and Arsenal experts on here, is there any mileage in going for "outlier" high scoring match results etc?

Both teams to score, over 2.5 etc both 4/6 or shorter so the above stats are pretty much priced in


Something like over 4/5 goals at 9/2 BetVictor (for illustrative purposes.....)

I fancy tonight's game will be a rather cagey affair with Napoli sitting deep and looking to hit Arsenal on the counter and a lot of midfield possession.

My first inclination is that it will be low-scoring, 1-0 if I were forced to have a bet, and 1-1, or 2-1 the most likely alternatives imo.

I think this is over 4.5.  I don't really like it at all, I don't think 5 goals happens that often.

I looked back at Arsenal's results this season, and it hasn't happened once, Napoli have done it in one game in 7.  I haven't run the stats, but I imagine the earlier Champion's League games are more cagey than the latter ones too.

I don't like it much, but if you do it, you could lay the less than 4.5 on Betfair at 1.21, which should be better, even after commission.

I would suggest that all those Goals in CL games by Napoli & Arsenal reflect, to a degree, the standard of opposition. Different tonight, two very good Teams. The Benetiz factor has to be weighed in, too.

Should be a great game, though.

[McGlashan]

Arsenal have won their last 4 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).
   
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Napoli's last 6 games in the Champions League (including qualifiers).    

Arsenal have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).    

Napoli have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches in the Champions League (including qualifiers).


Napoli and Arsenal experts on here, is there any mileage in going for "outlier" high scoring match results etc?

Both teams to score, over 2.5 etc both 4/6 or shorter so the above stats are pretty much priced in


Something like over 4/5 goals at 9/2 BetVictor (for illustrative purposes.....)

To back it I'd want Higuain to pass his late fitness test. Although Napoli do look like serious contenders this season and the match could be a cracking an end to end affair. Rafa's rotation policy has kicked in with no outfield player being ever present.

For pure Banzai territory look towards Donetsk on Wednesday, Shakhtar CL matches have involved plenty of goals and at the moment anything could happen in a Man United game. We also get a longer price on overs and BMU go 13/2 on >4.5 goals which looks worth a punt.

[Waz1892]

Not a suggestion, but I think Arsenal/Napoli is a nailed on draw.  Both know the importance of not losing.  Rafa excels at away euro trips and getting tactics spot on, and I think this is such a trip. 

I think both teams would "settle" for a draw, both having secured wins in the opening games.

1-1 being 8/1 (bet victor) and 16/1 for a 0-0 with Coral.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/arsenal-v-napoli/correct-score

[MahoganyVic]

I dunno. Even if they are nailed on top 2 in the group, would Arsenal really want to need a result in Napoli to win the group?  You dont really want to be coming second. I reckon Arsenal will go all out for the win tonight

[Marky147]

Not a suggestion, but I think Arsenal/Napoli is a nailed on draw.  Both know the importance of not losing.  Rafa excels at away euro trips and getting tactics spot on, and I think this is such a trip. 

I think both teams would "settle" for a draw, both having secured wins in the opening games.

1-1 being 8/1 (bet victor) and 16/1 for a 0-0 with Coral.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/arsenal-v-napoli/correct-score

Might have a tickle on No Goalscorer with Coral @ 16/1

[Nico29]

Not a suggestion, but I think Arsenal/Napoli is a nailed on draw.  Both know the importance of not losing.  Rafa excels at away euro trips and getting tactics spot on, and I think this is such a trip.  

I think both teams would "settle" for a draw, both having secured wins in the opening games.

1-1 being 8/1 (bet victor) and 16/1 for a 0-0 with Coral.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/arsenal-v-napoli/correct-score

Might have a tickle on No Goalscorer with Coral @ 16/1

Correct to do this rather than 0-0.

Very important to always back no goalscorer rather than 0-0 as you get own goals included, so should it finish 1-0 but with an own goal you will still win.

Some mean bookies have finally cottoned onto this and after donkeys years of it being the same price they've started to make ngs a lesser price in some cases than nil-nil, even still by shopping around you can norm get the same/best price.

[Kmac84]

I would like to add to the Arsenal v Napoli debate.  

I was going to suggest that Fred back Napoli.  when I checked Betfair earlier today they could be back at 7/2.  For me this is a no brainer.  I am not a huge fan of Rafa but he knows how to beat Arsenal.  Granted I think in his 20 matches against Wenger he is behind 6 - 8 with 8 drawn.  But for many of those games he was in charge of a Liverpool side that just weren't on par with Arsenal.  

Napoli are a fantastic counter attacking side, we don't get to see much of that side of their game as Seire A is not as defensive as it once was.  Arsenal have been decent so far, but in spells they look weak at the back.

[BigAdz]

Currently in Souda Bay Crete, watching one of my companies machines pave part of the runway at the Nato Airbase.

Far more important, the Arsenal game.

Draw. Tend to think we having been running too good, and them being Italians will be happy with a draw.

GL Chompy tip. Cant get a stream, surprisingly, and cant even get betfair to whack the refresh button. Hey Ho, nice and sunny

[redarmi]

I would like to add to the Arsenal v Napoli debate.  

I was going to suggest that Fred back Napoli.  when I checked Betfair earlier today they could be back at 7/2.  For me this is a no brainer.  I am not a huge fan of Rafa but he knows how to beat Arsenal.  Granted I think in his 20 matches against Wenger he is behind 6 - 8 with 8 drawn.  But for many of those games he was in charge of a Liverpool side that just weren't on par with Arsenal.  

Napoli are a fantastic counter attacking side, we don't get to see much of that side of their game as Seire A is not as defensive as it once was.  Arsenal have been decent so far, but in spells they look weak at the back.

To add further to the debate I made Arsenal 8/13 shots!!!!

[tikay]

Currently in Souda Bay Crete, watching one of my companies machines pave part of the runway at the Nato Airbase.

Far more important, the Arsenal game.

Draw. Tend to think we having been running too good, and them being Italians will be happy with a draw.

GL Chompy tip. Cant get a stream, surprisingly, and cant even get betfair to whack the refresh button. Hey Ho, nice and sunny

Ooh, concrete runway? Photos please, and specification.