Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Starting to believe.........

[tikay]

Gareth Bale, in whom Fred has a healthy interest, is currently injured.


 http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1794792-gareth-bale-must-take-necessary-time-to-cure-injury-woes

[Kmac84]

I am really glad I never suggested that Fred get onside with Napoli last night. 

I had a pretty bad night with my 3 strongest bets all going down like the Titanic.  Thankfully some of my bets on the alternative markets won and I just about broke even.  I guess thinking we are beating the price in the champions League is like betting the EPL games.  If it looks too good to be true then it probably is.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £3.00

Outstanding Bets £2928.64

Free Bets Two William Hill use by tomorrow

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

One completed bet yesterday with Island Remede finishing 2nd at Kempton for a £3 loss

In longer term action

* Arsenal beating Napoli comfortably was a setback for our Napoli champions league bet

* Watford were beaten at Blackburn and lie just outside the top six

* Barnsley drew with Reading. Reading are 5th, Barnsley aren't

* Tampa Bay Rays play their wild card AL game tonight at Cleveland

[tikay]

I am really glad I never suggested that Fred get onside with Napoli last night. 

I had a pretty bad night with my 3 strongest bets all going down like the Titanic.  Thankfully some of my bets on the alternative markets won and I just about broke even.  I guess thinking we are beating the price in the champions League is like betting the EPL games.  If it looks too good to be true then it probably is.

Yes, there is not much "hidden" value in the main CL markets. There can be over-betting of "punters favourites" on occasion, I suppose.

Both the Manchester Teams play tonight, & both are available to win at fancy prices, which I find rather tempting, but it is probably fool's gold.

[Kmac84]

I am really glad I never suggested that Fred get onside with Napoli last night. 

I had a pretty bad night with my 3 strongest bets all going down like the Titanic.  Thankfully some of my bets on the alternative markets won and I just about broke even.  I guess thinking we are beating the price in the champions League is like betting the EPL games.  If it looks too good to be true then it probably is.

Yes, there is not much "hidden" value in the main CL markets. There can be over-betting of "punters favourites" on occasion, I suppose.

Both the Manchester Teams play tonight, & both are available to win at fancy prices, which I find rather tempting, but it is probably fool's gold.

I was looking this morning at those games and I think I am going to be against both.  Not the types to rec on this thread though.

[Doobs]

I am really glad I never suggested that Fred get onside with Napoli last night.  

I had a pretty bad night with my 3 strongest bets all going down like the Titanic.  Thankfully some of my bets on the alternative markets won and I just about broke even.  I guess thinking we are beating the price in the champions League is like betting the EPL games.  If it looks too good to be true then it probably is.

Yes, there is not much "hidden" value in the main CL markets. There can be over-betting of "punters favourites" on occasion, I suppose.

Both the Manchester Teams play tonight, & both are available to win at fancy prices, which I find rather tempting, but it is probably fool's gold.

I was looking this morning at those games and I think I am going to be against both.  Not the types to rec on this thread though.

Really?  Man City looked a very big price on Betfred at 12/5.  I am not a big believer in this Bundesliga is better than the Premiership thing that is going on.  There really can't be much between the sides and 12/5 just looks massive for the home side to me.  I think the Man U match looks less obvious and haven't had a bet.

[DungBeetle]

Watford pretty poor for the 2nd game in a row by all accounts.  Zola struggling to extract the best out of his squad at the moment, as last season's 3-5-2 doesn't seem to be working without Vydra and Abdi (Abdi injured should return post international break).  Defence is better than last year, but Deeney seems badly effected by the Vyrda departure and hasn't clicked yet with any of Foresetieri, Fabbrini or Acuna. 

Hoping the return of Abdi and having time to blend the team will improve things, but at the moment something isn't quite working.

[DungBeetle]

I am really glad I never suggested that Fred get onside with Napoli last night.  

I had a pretty bad night with my 3 strongest bets all going down like the Titanic.  Thankfully some of my bets on the alternative markets won and I just about broke even.  I guess thinking we are beating the price in the champions League is like betting the EPL games.  If it looks too good to be true then it probably is.

Yes, there is not much "hidden" value in the main CL markets. There can be over-betting of "punters favourites" on occasion, I suppose.

Both the Manchester Teams play tonight, & both are available to win at fancy prices, which I find rather tempting, but it is probably fool's gold.

I was looking this morning at those games and I think I am going to be against both.  Not the types to rec on this thread though.

Really?  Man City looked a very big price on Betfred at 12/5.  I am not a big believer in this Bundesliga is better than the Premiership thing that is going on.  There really can't be much between the sides and 12/5 just looks massive for the home side to me.  I think the Man U match looks less obvious and haven't had a bet.

12/5 looks big on the home team to me as well.

[Kmac84]

I am really glad I never suggested that Fred get onside with Napoli last night.  

I had a pretty bad night with my 3 strongest bets all going down like the Titanic.  Thankfully some of my bets on the alternative markets won and I just about broke even.  I guess thinking we are beating the price in the champions League is like betting the EPL games.  If it looks too good to be true then it probably is.

Yes, there is not much "hidden" value in the main CL markets. There can be over-betting of "punters favourites" on occasion, I suppose.

Both the Manchester Teams play tonight, & both are available to win at fancy prices, which I find rather tempting, but it is probably fool's gold.

I was looking this morning at those games and I think I am going to be against both.  Not the types to rec on this thread though.

Really?  Man City looked a very big price on Betfred at 12/5.  I am not a big believer in this Bundesliga is better than the Premiership thing that is going on.  There really can't be much between the sides and 12/5 just looks massive for the home side to me.  I think the Man U match looks less obvious and haven't had a bet.

12/5 looks big on the home team to me as well.

12/5 is an excellent price on MCFC. But Fred Done is no mug.

I am in the camp that is 100% certain the Bundesliga is better than the EPL.  Not only that, I am yet to be convinced by MCFC in Europe. I know it's all about sample size etc but much of my betting on football is done on my own touch and feel. Sometimes we get situations where the price differential gives more value than expected and it can be worth swerving. Just my opinion fwiw.

[Archer]

City's performance at the Etihad since the end of 2010 has been pretty sensational really. I've just read a stat that they have only lost twice  in the League in the last 50 odd games which is equivalent to 3 seasons.

Whilst their CL league has been poor they are still unbeaten in the 6 home games they have played.

So, strikes me there is real value on the home win here.  Likewise the price on Bayern is short (2.3ish last time I looked) and represents a good lay as an alternative to cover the draw.

[redarmi]

I kinda like City tonight but I have read that stat about City at home but I don't really see the relevance of it.  They haven't played a team as good as Bayern at home and it is largely under a different manager.  I guess the reason I like City is pretty much the opposite to Kmac's.....it feels like their (largely irrelevant) record in Europe is in the price.  City are one of the best teams in Europe.  Bayern are, probably, the best team but even they will probably be fairly happy to come away from this with a draw and then go and beat CSKA and Plzen a couple of times and both teams go through.  City 2.33 at draw no bet seems very fair to me.

[Tal]

https://en.expekt.com/man-united-man-city-leverkusen-champions-league-0210-m612661

Who are these chaps? 14/1 for City, United and Leverkeusen (Enhanced price) grab anyone?

[Marky147]

https://en.expekt.com/man-united-man-city-leverkusen-champions-league-0210-m612661

Who are these chaps? 14/1 for City, United and Leverkeusen (Enhanced price) grab anyone?

They were massive in poker back in the day, and the home site for a lot of scandinavian players iirc.

[McGlashan]

https://en.expekt.com/man-united-man-city-leverkusen-champions-league-0210-m612661

Who are these chaps? 14/1 for City, United and Leverkeusen (Enhanced price) grab anyone?

no, sorry to nitpick Tal but I prefer my enhanced prices to beat what's already on offer on the high street.